Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at PHX?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIN

MIN

1-1

8884

PHX

1-2

WNBATue, May 12FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasPHX -4.5

MIN · top performer

Nia Coffey

F · #12

10.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Kahleah Copper

G · #2

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 26.9

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	29	14	6-9	—	2-6	+8	11	2
N. CoffeyF · #12	21	13	5-7	3-4	—	+3	10	0
K. McBrideG · #21	33	14	4-10	2-6	4-4	+4	2	3
C. WilliamsG · #10	30	11	4-13	1-4	2-3	+7	3	5
O. MilesG · #5	26	13	5-10	0-2	3-4	+6	6	7
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	19	8	3-4	1-1	1-1	-1	0	1
A. KosuF · #7	9	2	1-2	—	—	0	2	2
E. CechovaF · #22	22	11	4-8	0-1	3-4	-3	6	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	8	0	—	—	—	0	2	0
E. HamzovaG · #11	5	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-4	1	0
Team		88	32-64	7-19	17-24		43	20
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	30	16	6-16	2-8	2-2	-8	7	2
A. ThomasF · #25	34	10	2-10	—	6-13	-9	4	8
V. AyayiF · #11	17	6	2-4	2-3	—	+1	4	3
N. MackF · #4	28	9	4-5	0-1	1-1	-5	10	0
K. CopperG · #2	35	30	9-21	2-7	10-13	-1	1	2
Bench
N. BrochantF · #1	12	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
K. LinskensC · #31	12	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	+1	4	1
J. NogicG · #29	17	2	0-6	0-2	2-2	+5	1	2
K. WilliamsG · #23	14	3	1-6	1-5	—	-4	0	1
Team		84	26-71	9-29	23-33		31	20
DNP: A. Maley, S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

32-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

26-71

FG %

7-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 13

MIN88@

PHX84today

Jun 2

MIN111@

PHX77

Jul 14

PHX100@

MIN104

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

168.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

MIN+17037%

PHX-20567%

10· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

168.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat PHX 88-84. N. Coffey led with 13 PTS, 10 REB, 0 AST. Nia Coffey's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 16

PHXstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 4:11 · 77-81

+14pp→ 79% WP

Kayla McBride · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

PHX4th Quarter · 1:43 · 84-83

+21pp→ 62% WP

Nia Coffey · shooting foul

MIN4th Quarter · 26.9 · 87-83

+22pp→ 87% WP

Nia Coffey · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	19	22	27	20	88
PHX	20	25	22	17	84

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · PHX won 2

Howard 5

Copper 5

Miles 6

Bonner 10

Williams 6

Ayayi 7

Coffey 8

Copper 11

MIN

PHX

Shooting comparison

MIN

PHX

50%

32-64

37%

26-71

37%

7-19

3PT

31%

9-29

71%

17-24

70%

23-33

Play-by-play · 437 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 88·PHX 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 88·PHX 84
−2pp
Q4·7.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 88·PHX 84
Q4·7.0
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 84
Q4·7.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
−2pp
Q4·7.0
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
−3pp
Q4·7.0
Emma Cechova enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
MIN 88·PHX 83
Q4·7.0
Nia Coffey loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·PHX 83
+5pp
Q4·7.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
+0.8pp
Q4·7.6
Kiana Williams misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIN 88·PHX 83
−2pp
Q4·12.8
Mercury timeout
MIN 88·PHX 83
Q4·12.8
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
Q4·13.2
Olivia Miles misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
+3pp
Q4·13.2
Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
Q4·13.2
Kiana Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−3pp
Q4·14.7
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 87·PHX 83
−2pp
Q4·16.4
DeWanna Bonner misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIN 87·PHX 83
−5pp
Q4·18.7
Courtney Williams vs. Kahleah Copper (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−3pp
Q4·25.6
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 87·PHX 83
Q4·26.9
Nia Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−22pp
Q4·49.0
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
−4pp
Q4·52.4
DeWanna Bonner misses 12-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
−10pp
Q4·57.7
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
+3pp
Q4·1:00
Olivia Miles misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
+9pp
Q4·1:06
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
−3pp
Q4·1:09
Kiana Williams misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·PHX 83
−8pp
Q4·1:27
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
+3pp
Q4·1:29
Courtney Williams misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·PHX 83
+8pp
Q4·1:36
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
Q4·1:43
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
−10pp

Betting line

PHX -4.5·O/U 168.5·MIN +170/PHX -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 88–84. Decided by 4.

MIN +4.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total cleared the 168.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

PHX

eFG%

shooting

55.5%

43.0%

TOV%

ball control

16.7%

11.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

29.0%

20.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

26.6%

32.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.9%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.6%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.32

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at PHX?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.3pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +19.3pp · implied 35.5%

PHX

no live price

Book	MIN	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	+170★	-205	+19.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 75 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop