Aug 10, 25sim 88
883
9(H)71
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4MIN
MIN
1-1
8884
PHX
1-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 368 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 88–84. Decided by 4.
MIN +4.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total cleared the 168.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Nia Coffey
F · #12
10.8Game score
13
Pts
10
Reb
0
Ast
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
18.0Game score
30
Pts
1
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
MIN1-1
8884
PHX1-2
MIN1-1PHX1-2
MIN
1-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 29 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +8 | |
| 21 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | |
| 33 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | |
| 30 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +7 | |
| 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 19 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 88 | 43 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 15 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz | ||||||||
PHX
1-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -8 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -9 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 28 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -5 | |
| 35 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 84 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 11 | ||
| DNP: A. Maley, S. Whitcomb, S. Carter | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
37
20
Ast
20
Season series
MIN leads series 1-0
May 13MIN88@PHX84today
MIN88@PHX84todayJun 2MIN@PHXupcoming
MIN@PHXupcomingJul 14PHX@MINupcoming
PHX@MINupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
PHX -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
1.0pt· 6.4h
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 6.4h
Moneyline
MIN+17037%PHX-20567%10· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
+1.0 since open
Total
168.5
+2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowMIN ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 26.9
MINN. Coffey
FGame leader · 21 min
13 PTS · 10 REB · 0 AST
PHXK. Copper
GGame leader · 35 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat PHX 88-84. N. Coffey led with 13 PTS, 10 REB, 0 AST. Nia Coffey's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST
GS 50
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST
GS 16
PHXstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST
GS 10
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX4th Quarter · 4:11 · 77-81
+14pp→ 79% WP
Kayla McBride · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX4th Quarter · 1:43 · 84-83
+21pp→ 62% WP
Nia Coffey · shooting foul
MIN4th Quarter · 26.9 · 87-83
+22pp→ 87% WP
Nia Coffey · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 22 | 27 | 20 | 88 |
| PHX | 20 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 84 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · PHX won 2
19
20
Q1
Howard 5
Copper 5
22
25
Q2
Miles 6
Bonner 10
27
22
Q3
Williams 6
Ayayi 7
20
17
Q4
Coffey 8
Copper 11
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
50%
32-64
FG
37%
26-71
37%
7-19
3PT
31%
9-29
71%
17-24
FT
70%
23-33
Play-by-play · 437 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 88·PHX 84
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 88·PHX 84
−2pp
- Q4·7.0
Lynx timeout
MIN 88·PHX 84
- Q4·7.0
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 84
- Q4·7.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·7.0
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·7.0
Emma Cechova enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
MIN 88·PHX 83
- Q4·7.0
Nia Coffey loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 88·PHX 83
+5pp
- Q4·7.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
+0.8pp
- Q4·7.6
Kiana Williams misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIN 88·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·12.8
Mercury timeout
MIN 88·PHX 83
- Q4·12.8
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 88·PHX 83
- Q4·13.2
Olivia Miles misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
+3pp
- Q4·13.2
Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 88·PHX 83
- Q4·13.2
Kiana Williams personal take foul
·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·14.7
Olivia Miles defensive rebound
MIN 87·PHX 83
−2pp
- Q4·16.4
DeWanna Bonner misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIN 87·PHX 83
−5pp
- Q4·18.7
Courtney Williams vs. Kahleah Copper (Alyssa Thomas gains possession)
· ·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·25.6
Mercury Full timeout
MIN 87·PHX 83
- Q4·26.9
Nia Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 87·PHX 83
−22pp
- Q4·49.0
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
−4pp
- Q4·52.4
DeWanna Bonner misses 12-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
−10pp
- Q4·57.7
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
+3pp
- Q4·1:00
Olivia Miles misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
+9pp
- Q4·1:06
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
−3pp
- Q4·1:09
Kiana Williams misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·PHX 83
−8pp
- Q4·1:27
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
+3pp
- Q4·1:29
Courtney Williams misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIN 84·PHX 83
+8pp
- Q4·1:36
Nia Coffey defensive rebound
MIN 84·PHX 83
- Q4·1:43
Alyssa Thomas misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 84·PHX 83
−10pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
32-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
26-71
50
FG %
37
7-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-29
17-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-33
20
Assists
20
15
Turnovers
11
Betting line
PHX -4.5·O/U 168.5·MIN +170/PHX -205
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort- Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.32
CLV pp
Open price
+145
Close price
+154
Open no-vig
39.1%
Close no-vig
37.8%
Market faded the model · Graded: hit
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
51.7%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.3%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
89.7
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
21.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9