WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2POR

2-1

9698

POR

1-1

WNBATue, May 12FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasNY -11.5

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off New York Liberty, 98–96. Decided by 2.

POR +11.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total cleared the 174.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Pauline Astier

G · #18

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	38	16	4-12	0-2	8-8	-2	10	4
J. JonesC · #35	34	17	6-11	3-6	2-2	-3	7	3
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	25	10	3-7	2-6	2-2	-11	3	3
M. JohannesG · #23	33	18	6-11	3-7	3-3	-4	4	4
P. AstierG · #18	30	24	10-14	2-3	2-3	-2	5	3
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	0	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
H. XuC · #21	6	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
R. GardnerG · #7	22	8	3-4	2-3	—	+11	2	4
J. VanlooG · #53	12	3	1-2	1-1	—	+3	0	2
Team		96	33-62	13-28	17-18		31	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	33	26	9-16	5-11	3-3	+12	1	0
E. EngstlerF · #21	24	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	3	1
N. PuochF · #13	22	0	0-5	0-2	—	+2	3	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	25	13	4-10	3-6	2-2	+13	5	2
C. LeiteG · #0	26	21	8-14	0-1	5-5	+14	4	6
Bench
K. SmallsF · #8	14	13	4-7	4-5	1-1	-12	0	2
F. BuhnerF · #20	8	2	—	—	2-2	-14	2	0
M. GustafsonC · #17	15	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	-11	1	0
H. JonesG · #30	11	6	3-4	0-1	—	+8	5	1
S. BarkerG · #3	22	5	2-5	1-2	—	-1	2	3
Team		98	34-68	15-33	15-15		26	15
DNP: S. Williams

DNP: S. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 13

NY96@

POR98today

May 15

NY100@

POR82

May 26

POR81@

NY74

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -11.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-85089%

POR+57515%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -11.5↗SpreadBet NY -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

-2.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 50pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

P. Astier

Game leader · 30 min

24 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

POR

B. Carleton

Game leader · 33 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

26 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

POR beat NY 98-96. B. Carleton paced them with 26 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST. POR outscored the other side 28-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

PORstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 2:52 · 91-94

+17pp→ 61% WP

Bridget Carleton · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)

NY4th Quarter · 1:54 · 94-94

+17pp→ 53% WP

Marine Johannes · makes 25-foot driving floating jump shot

POR4th Quarter · 0.0 · 96-98

+50pp→ 100% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · makes two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	27	27	23	19	96
POR	21	26	23	28	98

Period scoring

NY won 2 · POR won 1

Astier 9

Leite 6

Jones 8

Geiselsoder 6

Gardner 8

Carleton 9

Stewart 8

Carleton 9

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

53%

33-62

50%

34-68

46%

13-28

3PT

45%

15-33

94%

17-18

100%

15-15

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Liberty] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 98
+50pp
Q4·1.4
Sarah Ashlee Barker offensive rebound
NY 96·POR 96
+2pp
Q4·2.4
Bridget Carleton misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
−5pp
Q4·13.8
Fire timeout
NY 96·POR 96
Q4·13.8
Pauline Astier 3 second turnoverBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
+12pp
Q4·27.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 96·POR 96
Q4·27.1
Carla Leite makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
+10pp
Q4·42.9
Fire Full timeout
NY 96·POR 94
Q4·42.9
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
NY 96·POR 94
+9pp
Q4·42.9
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 95·POR 94
−2pp
Q4·42.9
Luisa Geiselsoder personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−15pp
Q4·51.2
Liberty Full timeout
NY 94·POR 94
Q4·56.7
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
·
NY 94·POR 94
−2pp
Q4·58.0
Carla Leite misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−7pp
Q4·1:13
Carla Leite defensive rebound
NY 94·POR 94
+3pp
Q4·1:18
Marine Johannes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
+7pp
Q4·1:33
Emily Engstler lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
NY 94·POR 94
Q4·1:34
Breanna Stewart vs. Emily Engstler (Jonquel Jones gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NY 94·POR 94
−8pp
Q4·1:54
Marine Johannes makes 25-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−17pp
Q4·2:16
Emily Engstler bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 91·POR 94
−7pp
Q4·2:33
Breanna Stewart offensive foul turnover
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
(02:33) [Fire] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Fire] retain their timeout
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
Fire Coach's Challenge
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
Breanna Stewart offensive foulBIG MOMENT
NY 91·POR 94
+9pp
Q4·2:52
Bridget Carleton makes 25-foot running jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 91·POR 94
+17pp
Q4·2:58
Breanna Stewart lost ball turnover (Emily Engstler steals)
·
NY 91·POR 91
Q4·3:01
Breanna Stewart vs. Emily Engstler (Bridget Carleton gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NY 91·POR 91
+7pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

33-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-68

FG %

13-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-33

17-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-15

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -11.5·O/U 174.5·NY -850/POR +575

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan GustafsonPOR · C
TS%.67497
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.7%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.6%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
46.9%
P(POR win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+550

Close price

+550

Open no-vig

14.8%

Close no-vig

14.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.4pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

no live price

POR

★ best

+575DraftKings

edge +20.4pp · implied 14.2%

Book	NY	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-850	+575★	+20.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.7± 8.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
13.7± 6.0medium
Carla LeitePOR
13.3± 5.4medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.4± 4.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.2medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.1± 3.4medium

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
5.4± 3.6medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.9± 1.9medium
Teja OblakPOR
3.9± 3.5low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
2.0± 1.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
1.5± 1.6medium
Breanna StewartNY
1.1± 2.5medium

Steals

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.5± 1.7medium
Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.6medium
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.3± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

POR

45.9%

FG%

◀

44.3

44.9%

35.3%

3PT %

◀

33.0

33.7%

88.4

PPG

◀

85.2

81.5

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.8

14.7

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop