Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2POR

2-1

9698

POR

1-1

WNBATue, May 12FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasNY -11.5

NY · top performer

Pauline Astier

G · #18

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 50pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	38	16	4-12	0-2	8-8	-2	10	4
J. JonesC · #35	34	17	6-11	3-6	2-2	-3	7	3
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	25	10	3-7	2-6	2-2	-11	3	3
M. JohannesG · #23	33	18	6-11	3-7	3-3	-4	4	4
P. AstierG · #18	30	24	10-14	2-3	2-3	-2	5	3
Bench
A. GriffinF · #22	0	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
H. XuC · #21	6	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
R. GardnerG · #7	22	8	3-4	2-3	—	+11	2	4
J. VanlooG · #53	12	3	1-2	1-1	—	+3	0	2
Team		96	33-62	13-28	17-18		31	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	33	26	9-16	5-11	3-3	+12	1	0
E. EngstlerF · #21	24	6	2-3	2-3	—	-1	3	1
N. PuochF · #13	22	0	0-5	0-2	—	+2	3	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	25	13	4-10	3-6	2-2	+13	5	2
C. LeiteG · #0	26	21	8-14	0-1	5-5	+14	4	6
Bench
K. SmallsF · #8	14	13	4-7	4-5	1-1	-12	0	2
F. BuhnerF · #20	8	2	—	—	2-2	-14	2	0
GustafsonC · #17	15	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	-11	1	0
H. JonesG · #30	11	6	3-4	0-1	—	+8	5	1
S. BarkerG · #3	22	5	2-5	1-2	—	-1	2	3
Team		98	34-68	15-33	15-15		26	15
DNP: S. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

33-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-68

FG %

13-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-33

17-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 13

NY96@

POR98today

May 15

NY100@

POR82

May 26

POR81@

NY74

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -11.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-85089%

POR+57515%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -11.5↗SpreadBet NY -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

-2.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat NY 98-96. B. Carleton paced them with 26 PTS, 1 REB, 0 AST. POR outscored the other side 28-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 2 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

PORstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 2:52 · 91-94

+17pp→ 61% WP

Bridget Carleton · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)

NY4th Quarter · 1:54 · 94-94

+17pp→ 53% WP

Marine Johannes · makes 25-foot driving floating jump shot

POR4th Quarter · 0.0 · 96-98

+50pp→ 100% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · makes two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	27	27	23	19	96
POR	21	26	23	28	98

Period scoring

NY won 2 · POR won 1

Astier 9

Leite 6

Jones 8

Geiselsoder 6

Gardner 8

Carleton 9

Stewart 8

Carleton 9

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

53%

33-62

50%

34-68

46%

13-28

3PT

45%

15-33

94%

17-18

100%

15-15

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Liberty] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 96·POR 98
Q4·0.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 98
+50pp
Q4·1.4
Sarah Ashlee Barker offensive rebound
NY 96·POR 96
+2pp
Q4·2.4
Bridget Carleton misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
−5pp
Q4·13.8
Fire timeout
NY 96·POR 96
Q4·13.8
Pauline Astier 3 second turnoverBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
+12pp
Q4·27.1
Liberty Full timeout
NY 96·POR 96
Q4·27.1
Carla Leite makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·POR 96
+10pp
Q4·42.9
Fire Full timeout
NY 96·POR 94
Q4·42.9
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
NY 96·POR 94
+9pp
Q4·42.9
Jonquel Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
·
NY 95·POR 94
−2pp
Q4·42.9
Luisa Geiselsoder personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−15pp
Q4·51.2
Liberty Full timeout
NY 94·POR 94
Q4·56.7
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
·
NY 94·POR 94
−2pp
Q4·58.0
Carla Leite misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−7pp
Q4·1:13
Carla Leite defensive rebound
NY 94·POR 94
+3pp
Q4·1:18
Marine Johannes misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
+7pp
Q4·1:33
Emily Engstler lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
NY 94·POR 94
Q4·1:34
Breanna Stewart vs. Emily Engstler (Jonquel Jones gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NY 94·POR 94
−8pp
Q4·1:54
Marine Johannes makes 25-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·POR 94
−17pp
Q4·2:16
Emily Engstler bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 91·POR 94
−7pp
Q4·2:33
Breanna Stewart offensive foul turnover
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
(02:33) [Fire] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Fire] retain their timeout
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
Fire Coach's Challenge
NY 91·POR 94
Q4·2:33
Breanna Stewart offensive foulBIG MOMENT
NY 91·POR 94
+9pp
Q4·2:52
Bridget Carleton makes 25-foot running jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 91·POR 94
+17pp
Q4·2:58
Breanna Stewart lost ball turnover (Emily Engstler steals)
·
NY 91·POR 91
Q4·3:01
Breanna Stewart vs. Emily Engstler (Bridget Carleton gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
NY 91·POR 91
+7pp

Betting line

NY -11.5·O/U 174.5·NY -850/POR +575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off New York Liberty, 98–96. Decided by 2.

POR +11.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total cleared the 174.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

63.7%

61.0%

TOV%

ball control

20.5%

14.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.8%

25.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.4%

22.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.9%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
46.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+550

Close price

+550

Open no-vig

14.8%

Close no-vig

14.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.5pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

no live price

POR

★ best

+575DraftKings

edge +26.5pp · implied 14.2%

Book	NY	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-850	+575★	+26.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
21.7± 8.9high
Sabrina IonescuNY
17.4± 8.3medium
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.4high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.9± 2.7high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.8± 3.2high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.4± 2.5high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.4± 2.0medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.6± 1.8high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.8high

Steals

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.8± 0.7high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.6± 1.2high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop