WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

DAL

1-0

107104

IND

0-1

WNBASat, May 9FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasIND -5.5

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 107–104. Decided by 3.

DAL +5.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total cleared the 179.5 OVER by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Paige Bueckers

G · #5

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	32	13	5-8	—	3-5	+5	9	9
A. SmithF · #8	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-7	3	2
O. SimsG · #1	26	20	8-11	2-3	2-3	-10	2	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	29	22	8-15	3-7	3-3	+6	1	5
P. BueckersG · #5	32	20	8-10	1-3	3-6	+8	3	4
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	1	0
M. SiegristF · #20	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	+4	3	1
A. KuierF · #34	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	1
L. YueruC · #28	4	3	0-1	—	3-4	0	1	0
A. FuddG · #35	18	3	1-2	1-2	—	-1	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	16	10	3-5	3-3	1-1	+6	2	2
Team		107	39-66	12-23	17-24		27	26
DNP: D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, J. Quinerly

DNP: D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, J. Quinerly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	21	6	3-7	0-1	—	+2	6	2
A. BostonC · #7	26	23	9-14	1-2	4-6	0	4	3
K. MitchellG · #0	33	30	11-22	2-9	6-7	-5	3	4
S. CunninghamG · #8	26	3	1-2	1-1	—	-5	4	3
C. ClarkG · #22	31	20	7-18	2-9	4-4	+2	5	7
Bench
M. TimpsonF · #21	19	11	5-6	—	1-2	-2	2	1
D. DantasC · #12	13	7	3-4	1-2	—	-3	1	1
T. HarrisG · #52	4	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
L. HullG · #10	15	0	0-2	—	—	-1	1	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	12	4	1-1	—	2-2	-5	2	2
Team		104	40-77	7-24	17-21		28	23
DNP: M. Billings, S. Walker-Kimbrough

DNP: M. Billings, S. Walker-Kimbrough

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

May 9

DAL107@

IND104today

Aug 14

DAL@

INDupcoming

Aug 21

IND@

DALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+20033%

IND-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -5.5↗SpreadBet IND -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-2.0 since open

Total

179.5

+2.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 1:36

DAL

P. Bueckers

Game leader · 32 min

20 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST

IND

A. Boston

Game leader · 26 min

23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

DAL beat IND 107-104. P. Bueckers led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 18 REB · 22 AST

GS 65

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

INDstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 4:19 · 95-90

+16pp→ 77% WP

Caitlin Clark · misses 10-foot pullup jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 2:52 · 99-96

+16pp→ 44% WP

Jessica Shepard · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 1:36 · 101-98

+17pp→ 77% WP

Aliyah Boston · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	27	33	20	27	107
IND	25	26	29	24	104

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · IND won 1

Sims 8

Mitchell 10

Ogunbowale 11

Boston 12

Sims 7

Clark 10

Smith 6

Mitchell 11

DAL

IND

Shooting comparison

DAL

IND

59%

39-66

52%

40-77

52%

12-23

3PT

29%

7-24

71%

17-24

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 107·IND 104
−0.8pp
Q4·0.7
Fever offensive team rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·0.7
Kelsey Mitchell misses 31-foot three point jumper
DAL 107·IND 104
−1pp
Q4·1.3
Lexie Hull enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.3
Fever Full timeout
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.3
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
·
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
+1pp
Q4·1.6
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Makayla Timpson personal take foul
DAL 107·IND 104
−1pp
Q4·2.8
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
−4pp
Q4·7.1
Caitlin Clark misses 31-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·IND 104
−10pp
Q4·13.2
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·13.2
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 106·IND 104
+7pp
Q4·13.2
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 106·IND 104
+3pp
Q4·13.2
Kelsey Mitchell personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 106·IND 104
−10pp
Q4·14.0
Makayla Timpson makes 2-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
DAL 106·IND 104
+2pp
Q4·25.3
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 106·IND 102
+2pp
Q4·25.3
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·25.3
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·25.3
Aliyah Boston personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·IND 102
−7pp
Q4·28.0
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·28.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 105·IND 102
Q4·28.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes two point shot
DAL 105·IND 102
+4pp
Q4·28.5
Kelsey Mitchell offensive rebound
DAL 105·IND 100
+3pp
Q4·30.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 105·IND 100
−4pp
Q4·35.7
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
DAL 105·IND 100
−3pp
Q4·35.7
Fever timeout
DAL 105·IND 100
Q4·36.4
Odyssey Sims makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·IND 100
−9pp

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

39-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-77

FG %

12-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-24

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

IND -5.5·O/U 179.5·DAL +200/IND -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

80.9%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
81.1%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.1%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
82.2%
P(IND win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-298

Close price

-245

Open no-vig

71.8%

Close no-vig

68.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Player projections

IND vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Caitlin ClarkIND
19.6± 9.7medium
Kelsey MitchellIND
18.9± 3.7medium
Paige BueckersDAL
18.5± 8.7medium

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.8± 4.2medium
Aliyah BostonIND
8.5± 4.6low
Lexie HullIND
4.5± 3.2low

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.5± 2.4medium
Paige BueckersDAL
6.0± 3.9medium
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.7± 4.3medium

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.1low
Azzi FuddDAL
1.1± 1.4medium
Aliyah BostonIND
1.1± 1.7low

Steals

Aziaha JamesDAL
1.3± 1.4medium
Azzi FuddDAL
1.2± 1.1medium
Aliyah BostonIND
1.0± 1.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

league avg

IND

45.7%

FG%

◀

44.3

45.0%

33.6%

3PT %

◀

33.0

32.6%

88.1

PPG

85.2

▶

89.9

23.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

21.0

10.5

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · wehoop