Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at IND?

The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

DAL

1-0

107104

IND

0-1

WNBASat, May 9FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasIND -5.5

DAL · top performer

Paige Bueckers

G · #5

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 1:36

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	32	13	5-8	—	3-5	+5	9	9
A. SmithF · #8	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-7	3	2
O. SimsG · #1	26	20	8-11	2-3	2-3	-10	2	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	29	22	8-15	3-7	3-3	+6	1	5
P. BueckersG · #5	32	20	8-10	1-3	3-6	+8	3	4
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	1	0
M. SiegristF · #20	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	+4	3	1
A. KuierF · #34	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	1
L. YueruC · #28	4	3	0-1	—	3-4	0	1	0
A. FuddG · #35	18	3	1-2	1-2	—	-1	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	16	10	3-5	3-3	1-1	+6	2	2
Team		107	39-66	12-23	17-24		27	26
DNP: D. Fankam Mendjiadeu, J. Quinerly

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	21	6	3-7	0-1	—	+2	6	2
A. BostonC · #7	26	23	9-14	1-2	4-6	0	4	3
K. MitchellG · #0	33	30	11-22	2-9	6-7	-5	3	4
S. CunninghamG · #8	26	3	1-2	1-1	—	-5	4	3
C. ClarkG · #22	31	20	7-18	2-9	4-4	+2	5	7
Bench
M. TimpsonF · #21	19	11	5-6	—	1-2	-2	2	1
D. DantasC · #12	13	7	3-4	1-2	—	-3	1	1
T. HarrisG · #52	4	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
L. HullG · #10	15	0	0-2	—	—	-1	1	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	12	4	1-1	—	2-2	-5	2	2
Team		104	40-77	7-24	17-21		28	23
DNP: M. Billings, S. Walker-Kimbrough

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

39-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-77

FG %

12-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-24

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

May 9

DAL107@

IND104today

Aug 14

DAL@

INDupcoming

Aug 21

IND@

DALupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+20033%

IND-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -5.5↗SpreadBet IND -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-2.0 since open

Total

179.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat IND 107-104. P. Bueckers led with 20 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. IND outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 18 REB · 22 AST

GS 65

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 20

INDstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 6 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 4:19 · 95-90

+16pp→ 77% WP

Caitlin Clark · misses 10-foot pullup jump shot

IND4th Quarter · 2:52 · 99-96

+16pp→ 44% WP

Jessica Shepard · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 1:36 · 101-98

+17pp→ 77% WP

Aliyah Boston · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	27	33	20	27	107
IND	25	26	29	24	104

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · IND won 1

Sims 8

Mitchell 10

Ogunbowale 11

Boston 12

Sims 7

Clark 10

Smith 6

Mitchell 11

DAL

IND

Shooting comparison

DAL

IND

59%

39-66

52%

40-77

52%

12-23

3PT

29%

7-24

71%

17-24

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 107·IND 104
−0.8pp
Q4·0.7
Fever offensive team rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·0.7
Kelsey Mitchell misses 31-foot three point jumper
DAL 107·IND 104
−1pp
Q4·1.3
Lexie Hull enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.3
Fever Full timeout
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.3
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
·
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
+1pp
Q4·1.6
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·1.6
Makayla Timpson personal take foul
DAL 107·IND 104
−1pp
Q4·2.8
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
DAL 107·IND 104
−4pp
Q4·7.1
Caitlin Clark misses 31-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·IND 104
−10pp
Q4·13.2
Odyssey Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 107·IND 104
Q4·13.2
Wings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DAL 106·IND 104
+7pp
Q4·13.2
Odyssey Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 106·IND 104
+3pp
Q4·13.2
Kelsey Mitchell personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 106·IND 104
−10pp
Q4·14.0
Makayla Timpson makes 2-foot layup (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
·
DAL 106·IND 104
+2pp
Q4·25.3
Jessica Shepard makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 106·IND 102
+2pp
Q4·25.3
Wings offensive team rebound
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·25.3
Jessica Shepard misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·25.3
Aliyah Boston personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·IND 102
−7pp
Q4·28.0
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
DAL 105·IND 102
+3pp
Q4·28.0
Wings Full timeout
DAL 105·IND 102
Q4·28.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes two point shot
DAL 105·IND 102
+4pp
Q4·28.5
Kelsey Mitchell offensive rebound
DAL 105·IND 100
+3pp
Q4·30.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 105·IND 100
−4pp
Q4·35.7
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
DAL 105·IND 100
−3pp
Q4·35.7
Fever timeout
DAL 105·IND 100
Q4·36.4
Odyssey Sims makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·IND 100
−9pp

Betting line

IND -5.5·O/U 179.5·DAL +200/IND -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 107–104. Decided by 3.

DAL +5.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total cleared the 179.5 OVER by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

IND

eFG%

shooting

68.2%

56.5%

TOV%

ball control

16.4%

14.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

12.5%

22.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.8%

22.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

81.5%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
81.1%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
85.1%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
82.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.74

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-298

Close price

-245

Open no-vig

71.8%

Close no-vig

68.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at IND?: The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

IND vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.3high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.1± 4.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.4± 3.1high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop