Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+15CHI

CHI

1-0

9883

POR

0-1

WNBASat, May 9FinalSeriesCHI leads series 2-0VegasCHI -5.5

CHI · top performer

Skylar Diggins

G · #4

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Carla Leite

G · #0

12.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 6:53

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. JacksonF · #5	36	19	5-14	1-4	8-10	+10	7	3
K. CardosoC · #10	25	22	8-15	—	6-8	+3	14	1
S. DigginsG · #4	33	21	8-12	2-3	3-5	+10	11	7
J. SheldonG · #0	34	13	4-7	1-3	4-4	+17	4	4
G. JaquezG · #11	32	10	3-7	1-1	3-4	+14	7	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	15	10	4-5	—	2-3	+12	1	2
R. BanhamG · #24	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	+3	0	2
A. CoulibalyG · #35	6	0	0-3	0-1	—	0	2	1
S. TaylorG · #12	4	0	0-3	0-2	—	+6	0	0
Team		98	33-69	6-17	26-34		46	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	30	13	4-10	3-7	2-3	-6	1	4
E. EngstlerF · #21	23	4	2-6	0-2	—	-3	2	2
N. PuochF · #13	17	5	2-3	1-1	—	-1	1	2
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	25	8	2-10	1-6	3-3	-2	7	3
C. LeiteG · #0	29	18	3-11	1-5	11-12	-2	3	3
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #48	13	4	2-4	0-2	—	-6	3	0
M. GustafsonC · #17	14	10	4-6	2-4	0-2	-15	1	1
S. WilliamsC · #25	8	0	0-3	—	—	-2	2	1
H. JonesG · #30	7	4	2-3	—	—	-10	0	0
S. BarkerG · #3	24	13	6-9	1-2	—	-15	4	0
J. HarrisonG · #2	11	4	2-6	—	—	-13	0	4
Team		83	29-71	9-29	16-20		24	20
DNP: T. Oblak

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

POR

Home

33-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-71

FG %

6-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

26-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 2-0

May 10

CHI98@

POR83today

Jun 25

POR78@

CHI101

Jun 26

POR@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

163.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI-22569%

POR+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -5.5↗SpreadBet CHI -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

163.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat POR 98-83. S. Diggins led with 21 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST. CHI outscored the other side 30-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 43 REB · 17 AST

GS 81

Bench(4)

13 PTS · 3 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

PORstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 14 REB · 14 AST

GS 40

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 7:31 · 73-70

+17pp→ 19% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · enters the game for Nyadiew Puoch

CHI4th Quarter · 3:58 · 87-74

+21pp→ 99% WP

Elizabeth Williams · makes 4-foot layup (Gabriela Jaquez assists)

POR4th Quarter · 6:53 · 74-72

+28pp→ 28% WP

Haley Jones · makes 8-foot turnaround jump shot (Megan Gustafson assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	19	31	18	30	98
POR	18	19	30	16	83

Period scoring

CHI won 3 · POR won 1

Diggins 7

Barker 7

Sheldon 8

Geiselsoder 5

Cardoso 6

Carleton 6

Diggins 7

Leite 7

CHI

POR

Shooting comparison

CHI

POR

48%

33-69

41%

29-71

35%

6-17

3PT

31%

9-29

76%

26-34

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 423 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 98·POR 81
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 98·POR 81
Q4·19.5
Carla Leite makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luisa Geiselsoder assists)
·
CHI 98·POR 81
Q4·34.3
Jacy Sheldon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)
·
CHI 98·POR 78
Q4·51.2
Skylar Diggins defensive rebound
CHI 95·POR 78
Q4·54.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 95·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Kamilla Cardoso makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 95·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Kamilla Cardoso misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Luisa Geiselsoder shooting foul
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:03
Luisa Geiselsoder blocks Kamilla Cardoso 's 4-foot layup
·
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:10
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 94·POR 78
Q4·1:10
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 94·POR 77
Q4·1:10
Gabriela Jaquez shooting foul
CHI 94·POR 76
Q4·1:22
Jacy Sheldon makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 94·POR 76
Q4·1:22
Jacy Sheldon makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 93·POR 76
Q4·1:22
Sarah Ashlee Barker personal foul
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:22
Jacy Sheldon defensive rebound
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:23
Carla Leite misses 25-foot running jump shot
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:28
Carla Leite defensive rebound
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:30
Kamilla Cardoso misses two point shot
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:32
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:32
Kamilla Cardoso misses two point shot
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:33
Kamilla Cardoso offensive rebound
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:36
Rickea Jackson misses turnaround jump shot
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:58
Carla Leite makes two point shot
CHI 92·POR 76
Q4·1:59
Carla Leite offensive rebound
CHI 92·POR 74
Q4·1:59
Carla Leite misses driving floating jump shot
CHI 92·POR 74
Q4·2:09
Kamilla Cardoso makes two point shot
CHI 92·POR 74

Betting line

CHI -5.5·O/U 163.5·CHI -225/POR +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky went into Portland Fire and beat them, 98–83.

CHI -5.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 163.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

POR

eFG%

shooting

52.2%

47.2%

TOV%

ball control

9.7%

9.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

40.0%

8.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

37.7%

22.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan GustafsonPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.6%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
74.3%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
73.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
70.9%
P(POR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+170

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

POR vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Skylar DigginsCHI
14.4± 7.2medium
Carla LeitePOR
12.9± 5.2medium

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.2± 4.8medium
Azura StevensCHI
6.9± 4.7low
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.3± 3.0medium

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.1± 3.4medium
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.2± 2.6medium
Natasha CloudCHI
3.8± 2.0medium

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
2.0± 1.9medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 1.1medium
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
1.2± 1.1medium

Steals

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.4± 1.4medium
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.3± 1.3medium
Aicha CoulibalyCHI
1.1± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CHI

league avg

POR

41.4%

FG%

44.7

▶

44.6%

30.2%

3PT %

33.4

▶

34.1%

82.4

PPG

86.0

82.2

18.9

Assists / G

18.0

▶

19.8

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

14.8

Data via ESPN · wehoop