CHI
0-0
POR
0-0
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
CHI · top performer
Kamilla Cardoso
C · #10
17
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
POR · top performer
Sarah Ashlee Barker
G · #3
13
Pts
3
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Box score
CHI
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 R. Jackson★F · #5 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| K. Cardoso★C · #10 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
 S. Diggins★G · #4 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
 J. Sheldon★G · #0 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
 G. Jaquez★G · #11 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. WilliamsC · #1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4 |
 R. BanhamG · #24 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Team | 68 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | ||
POR
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 B. Carleton★F · #6 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 |
 E. Engstler★F · #21 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 |
 N. Puoch★F · #13 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
 L. Geiselsoder★C · #15 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 |
 C. Leite★G · #0 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10 |
| F. BuhnerF · #48 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
 M. GustafsonC · #17 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 |
 S. WilliamsC · #25 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| S. BarkerG · #3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 |
| J. HarrisonG · #2 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 |
| Team | 67 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 8 | ||
| DNP: T. Oblak | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
46
17
Ast
15
Season series
CHI@PORtodayPOR@CHIupcomingPOR@CHIupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHI -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
163.5
Standard · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHI-22569%POR+18535%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+1.0 since open
Total
163.5
+1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
End of 3rdRecent swing: 6pp · 3rd Quarter · 29.9
End of the 3rd Quarter
CHIK. Cardoso
CLeading · End of 3rd · 18 min
17 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 38 PTS · 16 REB · 2 AST
PORS. Barker
GLeading · End of 3rd · 16 min
13 PTS · 3 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 33 PTS · 8 REB · 0 AST
How it's going
CHI lead POR 68-67 (End of 3rd). K. Cardoso led with 17 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. CHI have outscored the other side 31-19 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
POR vs CHI
Score progression
1 lead change
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 93% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
5 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
GS 1
PORstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST
GS 32
Bench(6)
31 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 18
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKamilla Cardoso · makes 3-foot layup (Aicha Coulibaly assists)
Frieda Buhner · shooting foul
Bridget Carleton · makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Emily Engstler assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 31 | 18 | 68 |
| POR | 18 | 19 | 30 | 67 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · POR won 1
Q1
Diggins 7
Barker 7
Q2
Sheldon 8
Geiselsoder 5
Q3
Cardoso 6
Carleton 6
Shooting comparison
50%
26-52
FG
46%
24-52
27%
4-15
3PT
37%
7-19
80%
12-15
FT
80%
12-15
Play-by-play · 295 plays
End of the 3rd Quarter
CHI 68·POR 67
+2pp
Sky defensive team rebound
CHI 68·POR 67
−1pp
Rickea Jackson blocks Frieda Buhner 's 34-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
CHI 68·POR 67
−4pp
Frieda Buhner defensive rebound
CHI 68·POR 67
+1pp
Elizabeth Williams misses two point shot
·
CHI 68·POR 67
+4pp
Elizabeth Williams offensive rebound
·
CHI 68·POR 67
−2pp
Jacy Sheldon misses driving layup
CHI 68·POR 67
+3pp
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 2-foot layup (Bridget Carleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 68·POR 67
+6pp
Fire offensive team rebound
CHI 68·POR 65
+3pp
Luisa Geiselsoder misses 12-foot jumper
CHI 68·POR 65
−3pp
Luisa Geiselsoder offensive rebound
CHI 68·POR 65
+3pp
Elizabeth Williams blocks Sarah Ashlee Barker 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
CHI 68·POR 65
−3pp
Skylar Diggins enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
CHI 68·POR 65
8 second turnover
CHI 68·POR 65
+4pp
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 68·POR 65
−3pp
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 68·POR 64
+1pp
Rachel Banham shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 68·POR 63
+6pp
Frieda Buhner defensive rebound
CHI 68·POR 63
+0.9pp
Aicha Coulibaly misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·POR 63
+3pp
Frieda Buhner makes 4-foot two point shot
CHI 68·POR 63
−2pp
Aicha Coulibaly loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 68·POR 61
+5pp
Fire defensive team rebound
CHI 68·POR 61
+0.7pp
Aicha Coulibaly misses driving layup
CHI 68·POR 61
+1pp
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Gabriela Jaquez
·
CHI 68·POR 61
Bridget Carleton enters the game for Haley Jones
·
CHI 68·POR 61
Carla Leite enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
CHI 68·POR 61
Luisa Geiselsoder enters the game for Jordan Harrison
·
CHI 68·POR 61
Frieda Buhner personal foul
CHI 68·POR 61
+0.5pp
Megan Gustafson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jordan Harrison assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 68·POR 61
+5pp
Gabriela Jaquez makes two point shot (Jacy Sheldon assists)
·
CHI 68·POR 58
−3pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
POR
Home
26-52
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-52
50
FG %
46
4-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-19
12-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-15
17
Assists
15
7
Turnovers
8
Betting line
CHI -5.5·O/U 163.5·CHI -225/POR +185
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
25
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands