Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
5
projections · 5 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury went into Las Vegas Aces and beat them, 99–66. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
PHX +9.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 168.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHX · top performer
Alyssa Thomas
F · #25
20
Pts
6
Reb
9
Ast
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
19
Pts
4
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Box score
PHX
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 D. Bonner★F · #24 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +31 |
| A. Thomas★F · #25 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +25 |
 N. Mack★F · #4 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +34 |
 K. Copper★G · #2 | 28 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +29 |
| J. Nogic★G · #29 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +26 |
| N. BrochantF · #1 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 |
 K. LinskensC · #31 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 K. WilliamsG · #23 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9 |
| S. CarterG · #20 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Team | 99 | 37 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 7 | ||
LV
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 S. Talbot★F · #7 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -19 |
 N. Smith★F · #3 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -16 |
| A. Wilson★C · #22 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -22 |
 C. Gray★G · #12 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -24 |
 J. Young★G · #0 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -24 |
 C. Parker-TyusF · #32 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 |
 B. TurnerF · #21 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 |
 K. BellF · #1 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 |
 J. LoydG · #24 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -22 |
 C. CarterG · #23 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -9 |
| Team | 66 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 17 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
41
23
Ast
19
Season series
PHX leads series 1-0
PHX99@LV66todayLV@PHXupcomingPHX@LVupcomingLV@PHXupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
168.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHX+35022%LV-45582%95· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
+1.0 since open
Total
168.5
-1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 11.6
PHXA. Thomas
FGame leader · 26 min
20 PTS · 6 REB · 9 AST
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 24 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
PHX beat LV 99-66. A. Thomas led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. PHX outscored the other side 27-10 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LV vs PHX
Score progression
0 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHXstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 72
Bench(6)
24 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST
GS 20
LVstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 33
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNaLyssa Smith · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Jovana Nogic · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)
Mercury Coach's Challenge ·
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 27 | 29 | 27 | 16 | 99 |
| LV | 21 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 66 |
Period scoring
PHX won 3 · LV won 1
Q1
Nogic 6
Young 9
Q2
Nogic 13
Wilson 9
Q3
Thomas 8
Wilson 5
Q4
Williams 8
Carter 10
Shooting comparison
49%
38-77
FG
41%
29-71
46%
11-24
3PT
21%
4-19
80%
12-15
FT
50%
4-8
Play-by-play · 378 plays
End of Game
PHX 99·LV 66
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 99·LV 66
shot clock turnover
PHX 99·LV 66
NaLyssa Smith makes running layup (Kierstan Bell assists)
·
PHX 99·LV 66
Brianna Turner defensive rebound
PHX 99·LV 64
Kiana Williams misses 28-foot three point jumper
·
PHX 99·LV 64
Chennedy Carter makes 7-foot jumper
·
PHX 99·LV 64
Kiana Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Williams assists)
·
PHX 99·LV 62
NaLyssa Smith makes driving layup
PHX 96·LV 62
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
Anneli Maley misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 96·LV 60
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
NaLyssa Smith blocks Peyton Williams 's 5-foot driving layup
· ·
PHX 96·LV 60
Anneli Maley defensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
Chennedy Carter misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
·
PHX 96·LV 60
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
Anneli Maley misses driving layup
PHX 96·LV 60
Chennedy Carter bad pass turnover (Kiana Williams steals)
· ·
PHX 96·LV 60
Aces defensive team rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
Noemie Brochant misses 17-foot jumper
PHX 96·LV 60
Anneli Maley defensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 60
NaLyssa Smith misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 96·LV 60
NaLyssa Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 96·LV 60
Anneli Maley shooting foul
PHX 96·LV 59
NaLyssa Smith offensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 59
Kierstan Bell misses 14-foot jumper
PHX 96·LV 59
Kierstan Bell defensive rebound
PHX 96·LV 59
Anneli Maley misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 96·LV 59
Anneli Maley makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 96·LV 59
Chennedy Carter shooting foul
·
PHX 95·LV 59
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
LV
Home
38-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-71
49
FG %
41
11-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-19
12-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
4-8
23
Assists
19
7
Turnovers
17
Betting line
LV -9.5·O/U 168.5·PHX +350/LV -455