Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

1-0

9190

MIN

0-1

WNBASat, May 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -5.5

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 45.5

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	33	15	6-10	2-5	1-2	+11	7	2
A. ReeseF · #5	32	11	4-11	—	3-6	-3	14	2
A. GrayG · #15	33	24	7-18	1-8	9-11	+13	8	3
J. CanadaG · #3	27	12	4-7	1-3	3-4	+2	2	6
R. HowardG · #10	38	15	4-10	3-7	4-5	+5	6	5
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	0	0
M. OkotC · #11	10	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	+2	4	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	21	6	3-10	0-4	—	-7	5	4
I. BorlaseG · #20	3	0	—	—	—	-12	0	0
Team		91	31-73	7-29	22-30		46	22
DNP: B. Jones, A. Nye, I. Nivar

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	20	6	3-6	0-1	0-4	+3	5	2
N. CoffeyF · #12	31	3	1-4	1-3	—	-8	3	1
K. McBrideG · #21	33	20	7-13	2-6	4-5	-6	2	2
C. WilliamsG · #10	32	14	7-18	0-4	—	-8	6	6
O. MilesG · #5	34	21	6-14	1-2	8-8	0	3	8
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	+6	0	1
A. KosuF · #7	6	4	2-4	—	—	+6	1	0
E. CechovaF · #22	19	12	5-5	—	2-4	+1	3	0
E. HofC · #25	4	2	1-2	—	—	-4	0	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	8	6	2-2	1-1	1-1	+5	2	0
Team		90	35-70	5-18	15-22		25	20
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Hamzova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

31-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-70

FG %

7-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-18

22-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 10

ATL91@

MIN90today

May 28

ATL81@

MIN96

Aug 30

MIN@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-21869%

MIN+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗SpreadBet ATL -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+2.0 since open

Total

160.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MIN 91-90. A. Gray led with 24 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 24-12 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 37 REB · 18 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 6

MINstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 45.5 · 89-90

+26pp→ 47% WP

Kayla McBride · bad pass turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)

ATL4th Quarter · 6.6 · 91-90

+24pp→ 79% WP

Allisha Gray · blocks Olivia Miles 's 3-foot driving layup

ATL4th Quarter · 0.0 · 91-90

+24pp→ 100% WP

Angel Reese · blocks Emese Hof 's 4-foot layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	12	25	26	28	91
MIN	24	28	19	19	90

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · MIN won 2

Howard 3

McBride 7

Gray 7

Howard 21

Gray 13

Miles 9

Hillmon 9

Miles 6

ATL

MIN

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIN

42%

31-73

50%

35-70

24%

7-29

3PT

28%

5-18

73%

22-30

68%

15-22

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·0.0
Lynx offensive team rebound
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·0.0
Angel Reese blocks Emese Hof 's 4-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 91·MIN 90
−24pp
Q4·5.5
Naz Hillmon vs. Nia Coffey (Olivia Miles gains possession)
· ·
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·5.5
Lynx offensive team rebound
ATL 91·MIN 90
+3pp
Q4·6.6
Allisha Gray blocks Olivia Miles 's 3-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 91·MIN 90
−24pp
Q4·11.3
Jordin Canada enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·11.3
Emese Hof enters the game for Anastasiia Olairi Kosu
·
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·11.3
Lynx Full timeout
ATL 91·MIN 90
Q4·12.0
Te-Hina Paopao makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Naz Hillmon assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 91·MIN 90
−10pp
Q4·22.7
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
ATL 89·MIN 90
Q4·22.7
Dream Full timeout
ATL 89·MIN 90
Q4·22.7
Jordin Canada offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·MIN 90
−11pp
Q4·26.5
Angel Reese misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·MIN 90
+11pp
Q4·27.3
Angel Reese offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·MIN 90
−10pp
Q4·30.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Jordin Canada 's 8-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 89·MIN 90
+11pp
Q4·45.5
Kayla McBride bad pass turnover (Rhyne Howard steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 89·MIN 90
−26pp
Q4·53.9
Rhyne Howard personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 89·MIN 90
+23pp
Q4·59.2
Lynx timeout
ATL 89·MIN 90
Q4·59.2
Jordin Canada makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ATL 89·MIN 90
−13pp
Q4·1:10
(01:10) [Dream] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
ATL 87·MIN 90
+5pp
Q4·1:11
Kayla McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nia Coffey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 87·MIN 90
+13pp
Q4·1:24
Lynx Full timeout
ATL 87·MIN 87
Q4·1:24
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 87·MIN 87
+9pp
Q4·1:24
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 86·MIN 87
−2pp
Q4·1:24
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Emma Cechova
·
ATL 85·MIN 87
Q4·1:24
Emma Cechova shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 85·MIN 87
−13pp
Q4·1:47
Kayla McBride makes 2-foot layup (Olivia Miles assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 85·MIN 87
+8pp
Q4·1:49
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 85·MIN 85
+7pp

Betting line

ATL -5.5·O/U 160.5·ATL -218/MIN +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 91–90. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +5.5 cashed (ATL won by 1). Total cleared the 160.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

MIN

eFG%

shooting

47.3%

53.6%

TOV%

ball control

18.8%

15.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

51.4%

20.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.1%

21.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.1%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.17

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+124

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 20 high confidence

Points

Olivia MilesMIN
19.7± 7.5high
Rhyne HowardATL
18.9± 8.9medium
Allisha GrayATL
17.5± 6.6medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.8± 4.1medium
Natasha HowardMIN
7.6± 3.9medium
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.9± 1.6high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.2± 3.9medium
Olivia MilesMIN
5.3± 2.3high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
3.9± 1.6high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.6± 1.3high
Olivia MilesMIN
0.9± 1.3high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.1medium

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.5± 2.0medium
Natasha HowardMIN
2.1± 1.9medium
Jordin CanadaATL
2.0± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

ATL

league avg

MIN

44.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

50.1%

34.0%

3PT %

33.4

▶

38.8%

90.4

PPG

86.0

▶

91.5

20.4

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.6

12.4

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop