ATL
0-0
MIN
0-0
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
5
projections · 5 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
22
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
MIN · top performer
Olivia Miles
G · #5
21
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
WNBA · Box score
ATL
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 N. Hillmon★F · #00 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
 A. Reese★F · #5 | 28 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 |
| A. Gray★G · #15 | 28 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +5 |
 J. Canada★G · #3 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 |
 R. Howard★G · #10 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
| M. OkotC · #11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 |
 T. PaopaoG · #2 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 |
| Team | 78 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 20 | ||
| DNP: B. Jones, H. Winterburn, A. Nye, I. Nivar | ||||||||
MIN
0-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 N. Howard★F · #1 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +3 |
 N. Coffey★F · #12 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 K. McBride★G · #21 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 C. Williams★G · #10 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| O. Miles★G · #5 | 29 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +8 |
 A. DelaereF · #8 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6 |
| E. CechovaF · #22 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +8 |
 M. CaldwellG · #3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 |
| Team | 85 | 24 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Hamzova | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
52
18
Ast
18
Season series
ATL@MINtodayATL@MINupcomingMIN@ATLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
160.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-21869%MIN+18036%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Live · top performers so far
4:19 - 4thRecent swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 4:19
(04:19) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
ATLA. Gray
GLeading · 4:19 - 4th · 28 min
22 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 31 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST
MINO. Miles
GLeading · 4:19 - 4th · 29 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
On pace: 29 PTS · 4 REB · 10 AST
How it's going
MIN lead ATL 85-78 (4:19 - 4th). O. Miles led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. MIN have outscored the other side 24-12 in the 1st quarter.
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 85% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 32 REB · 14 AST
GS 50
Bench(4)
12 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 4
MINstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 19 REB · 17 AST
GS 49
Bench(5)
26 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAngel Reese · lost ball turnover (Courtney Williams steals)
Emma Cechova · shooting foul
(04:19) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 12 | 25 | 26 | 15 | 78 |
| MIN | 24 | 28 | 19 | 14 | 85 |
Shooting comparison
41%
26-63
FG
52%
33-63
22%
6-27
3PT
25%
4-16
71%
20-28
FT
68%
15-22
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
26-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-63
41
FG %
52
6-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-16
20-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-22
18
Assists
18
20
Turnovers
12
Betting line
ATL -5.5·O/U 160.5·ATL -218/MIN +180
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+2.0 since open
Total
160.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
MIN vs ATL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Period scoring
ATL won 2 · MIN won 2
Q1
Howard 3
Coffey 5
Q2
Gray 7
Howard 21
Q3
Gray 13
Miles 9
Q4
Reese 5
Miles 6
Play-by-play · 414 plays
(04:19) [Dream] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)BIG MOMENT
ATL 78·MIN 85
+9pp
Emma Cechova personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 78·MIN 85
−7pp
Olivia Miles makes two point shot
ATL 78·MIN 85
+5pp
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ATL 78·MIN 83
+4pp
Emma Cechova enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
ATL 77·MIN 83
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 77·MIN 83
−1pp
Natasha Howard shooting foul
·
ATL 76·MIN 83
−1pp
Olivia Miles makes driving layup
ATL 76·MIN 83
+4pp
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
ATL 76·MIN 81
+2pp
Te-Hina Paopao misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 76·MIN 81
+4pp
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 76·MIN 81
−4pp
Olivia Miles blocks Allisha Gray 's 3-foot driving layup
·
ATL 76·MIN 81
+5pp
Naz Hillmon defensive rebound
ATL 76·MIN 81
−1pp
Courtney Williams misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 76·MIN 81
−4pp
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Angel Reese
·
ATL 76·MIN 81
Natasha Howard enters the game for Anastasiia Olairi KosuBIG MOMENT
· ·
ATL 76·MIN 81
−5pp
Angel Reese offensive foul turnover
ATL 76·MIN 81
Angel Reese offensive foul
ATL 76·MIN 81
(05:35) [Lynx] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Lynx] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 76·MIN 81
+6pp
Official timeout
ATL 76·MIN 81
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 76·MIN 81
+6pp
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 76·MIN 79
+5pp
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses layup
ATL 76·MIN 79
−5pp
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 76·MIN 79
+5pp
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Emma Cechova
·
ATL 75·MIN 79
Rhyne Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 75·MIN 79
−2pp
Emma Cechova shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 74·MIN 79
−10pp
Emma Cechova makes 3-foot two point shot (Courtney Williams assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 74·MIN 79
+6pp
Angel Reese makes running layup (Jordin Canada assists)
·
ATL 74·MIN 77
−5pp
Emma Cechova lost ball turnover (Angel Reese steals)
·
ATL 72·MIN 77
−5pp