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FINAL+25LV
SEA

SEA

23-21

77102
LV

LV

30-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBASun, Sep 14FinalSeriestied 2-2

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Seattle Storm, 102–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Dominique Malonga

Dominique Malonga

C · #14

13.0Game score

12

Pts

11

Reb

1

Ast

LV · top performer

LV
A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

23.2Game score

29

Pts

8

Reb

2

Ast

WNBA · Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces · final

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final
77
102
SEA23-21LV30-14
SEA

SEA

23-21

77
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. OgwumikeN. Ogwumike★F · #3
271183003-33
G. WilliamsG. Williams★F · #5
271632103-22
E. MagbegorE. Magbegor★F · #13
24232010-14
S. DigginsS. Diggins★G · #4
261222000-22
B. SykesB. Sykes★G · #20
16021005-17
D. MalongaD. MalongaC · #14
2412111210-10
E. WheelerE. WheelerG · #17
251021100-21
T. MitchellT. MitchellG · #25
12612000-1
Team7734154212
DNP: K. Samuelson
LV

LV

30-14

102
CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
N. SmithN. Smith★F · #3
251191020+21
K. BellK. Bell★F · #1
15510000-2
A. WilsonA. Wilson★C · #22
302982323+29
C. GrayC. Gray★G · #12
27546301+23
J. YoungJ. Young★G · #0
281857404+26
C. Parker-TyusC. Parker-TyusF · #32
11720011+10
J. LoydJ. LoydG · #24
261431010+30
D. EvansD. EvansG · #11
231346000+9
Team10239231069

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

44

FG %

51

15

Ast

23

Playoff series

LV leads series 1-0

Sep 15SEASEA77@LVLV102today
Sep 17LVLV83@SEASEA86
Sep 19SEASEA73@LVLV74

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:04

SEASEA
D. Malonga

D. Malonga

C

Game leader · 24 min

12 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST

LVLV
A. Wilson

A. Wilson

C

Game leader · 30 min

29 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

LV beat SEA 102-77. A. Wilson paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. LV outscored the other side 22-12 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs SEA

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
SEASEAstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 19

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 29

LVLVstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 68

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
SEA1213272577
LV22233126102

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · LV won 4

12
22

Q1

Williams 4

Wilson 8

13
23

Q2

Wheeler 5

Wilson 8

27
31

Q3

Diggins 12

Young 12

25
26

Q4

Malonga 7

Parker-Tyus 5

SEA
LV

Shooting comparison

SEA
LV

44%

31-71

FG

51%

36-71

39%

7-18

3PT

48%

14-29

73%

8-11

FT

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 386 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·0.0

    End of Game

    SEA 77·LV 102

  2. Q4·0.0

    End of the 4th Quarter

    SEA 77·LV 102

  3. Q4·19.1

    Dominique Malonga defensive rebound

    SEA 77·LV 102

  4. Q4·20.9

    Megan Gustafson misses layup

    SEA 77·LV 102

  5. Q4·35.0

    Lexie Brown makes two point shot (Zia Cooke assists)

    ·

    SEA 77·LV 102

  6. Q4·40.5

    Dominique Malonga defensive rebound

    SEA 75·LV 102

  7. Q4·43.3

    Aaliyah Nye misses two point shot

    SEA 75·LV 102

  8. Q4·1:00

    Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 75·LV 102

  9. Q4·1:00

    Tiffany Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2

    SEA 74·LV 102

  10. Q4·1:00

    Kierstan Bell personal foul

    SEA 73·LV 102

  11. Q4·1:04

    Lexie Brown defensive rebound

    SEA 73·LV 102

  12. Q4·1:07

    Kierstan Bell misses 23-foot three point jumper

    SEA 73·LV 102

  13. Q4·1:23

    Zia Cooke makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 73·LV 102

  14. Q4·1:23

    Storm offensive team rebound

    SEA 72·LV 102

  15. Q4·1:23

    Zia Cooke misses free throw 1 of 2

    SEA 72·LV 102

  16. Q4·1:23

    Dana Evans shooting foul

    SEA 72·LV 102

  17. Q4·1:37

    Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound

    SEA 72·LV 102

  18. Q4·1:42

    Megan Gustafson misses 23-foot three point jumper

    SEA 72·LV 102

  19. Q4·1:54

    Aaliyah Nye defensive rebound

    SEA 72·LV 102

  20. Q4·1:56

    Lexie Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper

    SEA 72·LV 102

  21. Q4·2:14

    Kierstan Bell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot

    SEA 72·LV 102

  22. Q4·2:20

    Megan Gustafson defensive rebound

    SEA 72·LV 99

  23. Q4·2:23

    Zia Cooke misses two point shot

    SEA 72·LV 99

  24. Q4·2:26

    Dominique Malonga defensive rebound

    SEA 72·LV 99

  25. Q4·2:30

    Dominique Malonga blocks Dana Evans 's 12-foot step back jumpshot

    ·

    SEA 72·LV 99

  26. Q4·2:32

    Dana Evans offensive rebound

    SEA 72·LV 99

  27. Q4·2:33

    Kierstan Bell misses 23-foot three point jumper

    SEA 72·LV 99

  28. Q4·2:54

    Zia Cooke makes 2-foot two point shot

    SEA 72·LV 99

  29. Q4·3:11

    Dana Evans makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

    SEA 70·LV 99

  30. Q4·3:23

    Dominique Malonga makes free throw 2 of 2

    SEA 70·LV 96

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

LV

Home

31-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-71

44

FG %

51

7-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-29

8-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

15

Assists

23

12

Turnovers

9

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brittney SykesTOR · G
    USG%.28786

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    30%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    37%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LV win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LV vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

95

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    23.5± 12.0low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    17.4± 9.2low
  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    13.6± 9.4low

Rebounds

  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    7.6± 3.0low
  • NaLyssa SmithLV
    7.2± 4.5low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    6.9± 5.6low

Assists

  • Chelsea GrayLV
    6.3± 2.4low
  • Jackie YoungLV
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Jade MelbourneSEA
    3.9± 2.1low

Blocks

  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.9± 1.5low
  • Dominique MalongaSEA
    1.4± 1.5low
  • Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
    1.3± 1.8low

Steals

  • Jade MelbourneSEA
    1.2± 1.2low
  • Chennedy CarterLV
    1.1± 1.3low
  • A'ja WilsonLV
    1.0± 1.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

SEA

SEA

league avg

LV

LV

41.6%

FG%

44.7

▶

49.7%

34.1%

3PT %

32.6

▶

34.9%

79.5

PPG

85.4

▶

91.0

17.0

Assists / G

18.0

▶

22.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · wehoop