Sep 18, 25sim 96
587
20(H)85
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+12ATL
IND
24-20
6880
ATL
30-14
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
tlanta Dream held off Indiana Fever, 80–68.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
19.6Game score
27
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
ATL · top performer
Naz Hillmon
F · #0
18.6Game score
16
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND24-20
6880
ATL30-14
IND24-20ATL30-14
IND
24-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 24 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -11 | |
| 34 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 31 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 33 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 36 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| 12 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 68 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 12 | ||
ATL
30-14
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +12 | |
| 33 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +10 | |
| 35 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +17 | |
| 25 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 32 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +13 | |
| Team | 80 | 36 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 13 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
39
15
Ast
17
Playoff series
ATL leads series 1-0
Sep 14IND68@ATL80today
IND68@ATL80todaySep 16ATL60@IND77
ATL60@IND77Sep 18IND87@ATL85
IND87@ATL85Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 29.0
INDK. Mitchell
GGame leader · 33 min
27 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
ATLN. Hillmon
FGame leader · 33 min
16 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
ATL beat IND 80-68. N. Hillmon led with 16 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 22-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST
GS 38
Bench(5)
9 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 5
ATLstarters 88% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 57
Bench(6)
10 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 3
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactATL1st Quarter · 29.0 · 21-16
+13pp→ 54% WP
Brianna Turner · shooting foul
IND2nd Quarter · 10:00 · 21-18
+7pp→ 48% WP
Shey Peddy · enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
ATL3rd Quarter · 3:31 · 47-53
+8pp→ 78% WP
Naz Hillmon · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 21 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 68 |
| ATL | 18 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 80 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · ATL won 2
21
18
Q1
Mitchell 9
Howard 7
12
22
Q2
Sims 4
Gray 8
20
18
Q3
Mitchell 11
Hillmon 6
15
22
Q4
Powers 4
Howard 8
IND
ATL
Shooting comparison
IND
ATL
35%
22-63
FG
39%
27-70
13%
2-15
3PT
32%
7-22
76%
22-29
FT
90%
19-21
Play-by-play · 436 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 68·ATL 80
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 68·ATL 80
- Q4·15.4
Bree Hall makes layup (Brianna Turner assists)
·
IND 68·ATL 80
- Q4·15.4
Brianna Turner offensive rebound
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·19.6
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough blocks Aerial Powers 's 12-foot pullup jump shot
·
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·30.6
Fever timeout
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·30.6
shot clock turnover
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·30.6
Sika Kone offensive rebound
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·31.6
Makayla Timpson blocks Sika Kone 's 4-foot two point shot
·
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·54.6
Bree Hall makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 66·ATL 80
- Q4·54.6
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 65·ATL 80
- Q4·54.6
Bree Hall misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 65·ATL 80
- Q4·54.6
Sika Kone loose ball foul
IND 65·ATL 80
- Q4·54.6
Sika Kone lost ball turnover
IND 65·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Bree Hall makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 65·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Sika Kone enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Bree Hall misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:10
Allisha Gray shooting foul
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Brianna Turner enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Shey Peddy enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Aerial Powers enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Bree Hall enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Fever Full timeout
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:33
Naz Hillmon makes 2-foot layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
- Q4·1:39
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
IND 64·ATL 78
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
22-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
27-70
35
FG %
39
2-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-22
22-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-21
15
Assists
17
12
Turnovers
13
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
ATL
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.5%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.7%
92.9
PPG
◀
86.0
83.5
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.5
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.8