WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+12ATL

IND

24-20

6880

ATL

30-14

WNBASun, Sep 14FinalSeriestied 2-2

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Naz Hillmon

F · #0

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 29.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #6	24	5	2-7	0-1	1-2	-11	6	1
A. BostonC · #7	34	8	3-9	0-2	2-2	-6	12	5
O. SimsG · #1	31	10	3-7	0-2	4-4	-14	3	3
K. MitchellG · #0	33	27	9-18	1-4	8-9	-9	1	4
L. HullG · #10	36	9	3-13	1-5	2-2	-13	4	1
Bench
B. TurnerF · #11	12	0	0-2	—	—	-9	5	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
S. PeddyG · #5	10	0	0-2	—	—	-6	1	0
A. PowersG · #23	17	5	1-4	0-1	3-6	0	0	0
B. HallG · #3	2	4	1-1	—	2-4	+4	0	0
Team		68	22-63	2-15	22-29		32	15

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. JonesF · #24	31	12	5-7	—	2-2	+12	5	3
N. HillmonF · #0	33	16	5-7	2-4	4-5	+10	9	3
A. GrayG · #15	35	20	5-16	1-5	9-10	+17	6	4
J. CanadaG · #3	25	2	1-8	—	—	+5	4	4
R. HowardG · #10	32	20	6-17	4-10	4-4	+3	6	2
Bench
N. CoffeyF · #12	7	2	1-3	0-1	—	+1	1	0
S. KoneF · #23	1	0	0-1	—	—	-3	1	0
B. GrinerC · #42	8	2	1-4	—	—	+4	2	1
S. Walker-KimbroughG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
M. CaldwellG · #33	21	4	2-5	0-2	—	+13	1	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	6	2	1-2	—	—	+1	1	0
Team		80	27-70	7-22	19-21		36	17
DNP: T. Thierry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

22-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-70

FG %

2-15

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-22

22-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-21

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

ATL leads series 1-0

Sep 14

IND68@

ATL80today

Sep 16

ATL60@

IND77

Sep 18

IND87@

ATL85

How it ended

ATL beat IND 80-68. N. Hillmon led with 16 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. ATL outscored the other side 22-12 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 38

Bench(5)

9 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

GS 5

ATLstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 57

Bench(6)

10 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST

GS 3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 29.0 · 21-16

+13pp→ 54% WP

Brianna Turner · shooting foul

IND2nd Quarter · 10:00 · 21-18

+7pp→ 48% WP

Shey Peddy · enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell

ATL3rd Quarter · 3:31 · 47-53

+8pp→ 78% WP

Naz Hillmon · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rhyne Howard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	21	12	20	15	68
ATL	18	22	18	22	80

Period scoring

IND won 2 · ATL won 2

Mitchell 9

Howard 7

Sims 4

Gray 8

Mitchell 11

Hillmon 6

Powers 4

Howard 8

IND

ATL

Shooting comparison

IND

ATL

35%

22-63

39%

27-70

13%

2-15

3PT

32%

7-22

76%

22-29

90%

19-21

Play-by-play · 436 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 68·ATL 80
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 68·ATL 80
Q4·15.4
Bree Hall makes layup (Brianna Turner assists)
·
IND 68·ATL 80
Q4·15.4
Brianna Turner offensive rebound
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·19.6
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough blocks Aerial Powers 's 12-foot pullup jump shot
·
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·30.6
Fever timeout
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·30.6
shot clock turnover
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·30.6
Sika Kone offensive rebound
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·31.6
Makayla Timpson blocks Sika Kone 's 4-foot two point shot
·
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·54.6
Bree Hall makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 66·ATL 80
Q4·54.6
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 65·ATL 80
Q4·54.6
Bree Hall misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 65·ATL 80
Q4·54.6
Sika Kone loose ball foul
IND 65·ATL 80
Q4·54.6
Sika Kone lost ball turnover
IND 65·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Bree Hall makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 65·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Sika Kone enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough enters the game for Rhyne Howard
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Bree Hall misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:10
Allisha Gray shooting foul
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Brianna Turner enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Shey Peddy enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Aerial Powers enters the game for Odyssey Sims
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Bree Hall enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Nia Coffey enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Fever Full timeout
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:33
Naz Hillmon makes 2-foot layup (Rhyne Howard assists)
· ·
IND 64·ATL 80
Q4·1:39
Naz Hillmon offensive rebound
IND 64·ATL 78

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Indiana Fever, 80–68.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND22/63 · 35%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim11/22

50%

In the paint6/13

46%

Mid-range3/13

23%

Top-of-arc 31/9

11%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/4

25%

ATL27/70 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim16/31

52%

In the paint4/16

25%

Mid-range0/1

Top-of-arc 35/15

33%

Left corner 32/5

40%

Right corner 30/2

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

ATL

eFG%

shooting

36.5%

43.6%

TOV%

ball control

13.7%

14.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

27.3%

34.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

34.9%

27.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288

Shot map + zone breakdown

wehoop via ESPN PBP

IND22/63 · 35%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim11/22

50%

In the paint6/13

46%

Mid-range3/13

23%

Top-of-arc 31/9

11%

Left corner 30/2

Right corner 31/4

25%

ATL27/70 · 39%

● made · ○ missed

At the rim16/31

52%

In the paint4/16

25%

Mid-range0/1

Top-of-arc 35/15

33%

Left corner 32/5

40%

Right corner 30/2

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
69.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
66.8%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
66.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.4± 1.3high

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop