Sep 15, 25sim 97
1477
17(H)102
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+29MIN
GS
23-21
72101
MIN
34-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
innesota Lynx held off Golden State Valkyries, 101–72. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
GS · top performer
Cecilia Zandalasini
F · #24
9.6Game score
14
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
MIN · top performer
Napheesa Collier
F · #24
16.1Game score
20
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
GS23-21
72101
MIN34-10
GS23-21MIN34-10
GS
23-21
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -24 | |
| 36 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -34 | |
| 20 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -12 | |
| 34 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -28 | |
| 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -21 | |
| 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -23 | |
| 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 72 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 16 | ||
| DNP: T. Hayes | ||||||||
MIN
34-10
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 21 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12 | |
| 28 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +31 | |
| 26 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 26 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +11 | |
eFG%.47757 AST/TO1.343 TS%.54729 | ||||||||
| 27 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +22 | |
| 17 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +26 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 26 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +32 | |
| 11 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +20 | |
| Team | 101 | 36 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 11 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
34
FG %
51
17
Ast
25
Playoff series
MIN leads series 1-0
Sep 14GS72@MIN101today
GS72@MIN101todaySep 18MIN75@GS74
MIN75@GS74Headlines · top performers
Game flowGS ↔ MIN
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 4:15
GSC. Zandalasini
FGame leader · 30 min
14 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
MINN. Collier
FGame leader · 26 min
20 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
MIN beat GS 101-72. N. Collier led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 26-12 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 30
Bench(6)
17 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 11
MINstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST
GS 52
Bench(7)
42 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
GS 40
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactGS1st Quarter · 4:15 · 17-7
+7pp→ 43% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS1st Quarter · 2.3 · 28-21
+6pp→ 38% WP
Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
GS2nd Quarter · 7:30 · 31-25
+7pp→ 39% WP
Veronica Burton · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Iliana Rupert assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 28 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 72 |
| MIN | 21 | 26 | 32 | 22 | 101 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · MIN won 3
28
21
Q1
Fagbenle 8
McBride 5
12
26
Q2
Burton 4
McBride 9
18
32
Q3
Martin 6
Collier 9
14
22
Q4
Martin 5
Hiedeman 7
GS
MIN
Shooting comparison
GS
MIN
34%
20-59
FG
51%
35-68
29%
9-31
3PT
42%
10-24
85%
23-27
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 380 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 72·MIN 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 72·MIN 101
- Q4·4.6
Kaitlyn Chen makes two point shot (Kate Martin assists)
·
GS 72·MIN 101
- Q4·13.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 3-foot two point shot (Maria Kliundikova assists)
·
GS 70·MIN 101
- Q4·36.6
Kate Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 70·MIN 99
- Q4·36.6
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·36.6
Kate Martin misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·36.6
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu shooting foul
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·50.4
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·53.2
Maria Kliundikova misses 16-foot jumper
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·1:11
Kate Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kaitlyn Chen assists)
·
GS 69·MIN 99
- Q4·1:25
Laeticia Amihere defensive rebound
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·1:30
Natisha Hiedeman misses 29-foot three point jumper
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·1:39
Jaylyn Sherrod offensive rebound
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·1:41
Jaylyn Sherrod misses two point shot
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·1:49
Maria Kliundikova offensive rebound
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·1:52
Natisha Hiedeman misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:03
Camryn Taylor defensive rebound
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:07
Carla Leite misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:20
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:21
Kate Martin misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:21
Kate Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 66·MIN 99
- Q4·2:21
Camryn Taylor shooting foul
GS 65·MIN 99
- Q4·2:30
Iliana Rupert defensive rebound
GS 65·MIN 99
- Q4·2:33
Camryn Taylor misses 13-foot two point shot
GS 65·MIN 99
- Q4·2:53
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 65·MIN 99
- Q4·2:53
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 64·MIN 99
- Q4·2:53
(02:53) [Golden State Valkyries] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 63·MIN 99
- Q4·2:53
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu personal foul
GS 63·MIN 99
- Q4·2:56
Official timeout
GS 63·MIN 99
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
20-59
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-68
34
FG %
51
9-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-24
23-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
17
Assists
25
16
Turnovers
11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 12 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Veronica BurtonGS15.6± 5.8low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN14.5± 3.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Kaila CharlesGS6.3± 2.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.3± 3.5low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 4.2low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.7low
- Laeticia AmihereGS1.1± 1.5low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.9± 2.4low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
MIN
41.3%
FG%
44.7
▶50.1%
36.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
34.5%
86.4
PPG
85.4
▶88.4
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.1
10.1
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.3