Sep 20, 25sim 97
973
11(H)79
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7NY
NY
27-17
7669
PHX
27-17
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 76–69 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Natasha Cloud
G · #9
21.9Game score
23
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
PHX · top performer
DeWanna Bonner
F · #14
12.2Game score
12
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final / OT
NY27-17
7669
PHX27-17
NY27-17PHX27-17
NY
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 40 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +16 | |
DRB%.24980 USG%.28360 ORB%.05160 | ||||||||
| 39 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +12 | |
| 35 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +9 | |
| 40 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +11 | |
| 43 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| Team | 76 | 48 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 20 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, S. Talbot, N. Sabally, M. Johannes | ||||||||
PHX
27-17
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 41 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | |
ORB%.05680 TS%.59560 eFG%.53460 | ||||||||
| 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 37 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -18 | |
| 36 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -12 | |
USG%.31099+ TS%.4560 eFG%.3710 | ||||||||
| 34 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 31 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | |
| Team | 69 | 31 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 10 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
32
19
Ast
16
Playoff series
NY leads series 1-0
Sep 14NY76@PHX69today
NY76@PHX69todaySep 18PHX86@NY60
PHX86@NY60Sep 20NY73@PHX79
NY73@PHX79Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1:14
NYN. Cloud
GGame leader · 40 min
23 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST
PHXD. Bonner
FGame leader · 31 min
12 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
How it ended
NY beat PHX 76-69. N. Cloud led with 23 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. Monique Akoa Makani's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 97% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 36 REB · 19 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
2 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST
PHXstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 23
Bench(3)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY4th Quarter · 4:00 · 63-61
+24pp→ 72% WP
Kahleah Copper · out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHX4th Quarter · 2:20 · 63-63
+19pp→ 73% WP
Jonquel Jones · shooting foul
NY4th Quarter · 1:14 · 65-65
+26pp→ 50% WP
Monique Akoa Makani · lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 17 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 76 |
| PHX | 13 | 30 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 69 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · PHX won 2
17
13
Q1
Jones 5
Copper 4
27
30
Q2
Ionescu 9
Thomas 8
11
14
Q3
Ionescu 3
Bonner 4
10
8
Q4
Cloud 6
Copper 4
11
4
OT
Fiebich 5
Thomas 2
NY
PHX
Shooting comparison
NY
PHX
42%
30-72
FG
32%
25-77
30%
10-33
3PT
23%
6-26
67%
6-9
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 408 plays
period
event
player
- OT·0.0
End of Game
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·2.5
Kennedy Burke offensive rebound
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·6.1
Leonie Fiebich misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·28.4
DeWanna Bonner lost ball turnover (Natasha Cloud steals)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−0.8pp
- OT·32.3
Sabrina Ionescu lost ball turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
+0.7pp
- OT·39.2
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·42.6
Satou Sabally misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−0.9pp
- OT·47.5
Mercury Full timeout
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·57.3
Leonie Fiebich makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−5pp
- OT·1:16
Liberty Full timeout
NY 73·PHX 69
- OT·1:16
DeWanna Bonner makes two point shot (Satou Sabally assists)
· ·
NY 73·PHX 69
+1pp
- OT·1:21
Natasha Cloud bad pass (Satou Sabally steals)
· ·
NY 73·PHX 67
+2pp
- OT·1:41
Alyssa Thomas makes tip shot
NY 73·PHX 67
+1pp
- OT·1:41
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
NY 73·PHX 65
+0.8pp
- OT·1:42
Jonquel Jones blocks Monique Akoa Makani 's 4-foot two point shot
·
NY 73·PHX 65
−1pp
- OT·1:51
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 73·PHX 65
- OT·1:51
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 72·PHX 65
+0.5pp
- OT·1:51
Natasha Cloud misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 72·PHX 65
+0.6pp
- OT·1:51
Kahleah Copper shooting foul
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:07
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 72·PHX 65
- OT·2:07
Alyssa Thomas out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:07
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
NY 72·PHX 65
+1pp
- OT·2:11
Monique Akoa Makani misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:20
Leonie Fiebich makes 1-foot layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
NY 72·PHX 65
−3pp
- OT·2:38
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 70·PHX 65
−1pp
- OT·2:41
Satou Sabally misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
NY 70·PHX 65
−5pp
- OT·2:59
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
·
NY 70·PHX 65
- OT·3:01
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NY 70·PHX 65
+7pp
- OT·3:01
Liberty Full timeout
NY 70·PHX 65
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
30-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-77
42
FG %
32
10-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-26
6-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
19
Assists
16
20
Turnovers
10
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
3 of 13 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.31099+
Breanna StewartNY · FDRB%.24980
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FORB%.05680
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Breanna StewartNY17.3± 11.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
Rebounds
- Breanna StewartNY8.2± 2.4low
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Jonquel JonesNY8.0± 3.1low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Marine JohannesNY4.2± 4.0low
- Pauline AstierNY3.6± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Jonquel JonesNY1.2± 1.9low
- Breanna StewartNY1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Marine JohannesNY1.7± 2.1low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
PHX
45.9%
FG%
◀
44.9
43.4%
35.8%
3PT %
◀
33.0
32.3%
88.0
PPG
◀
86.0
85.6
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.1
14.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9