
NY
27-17

PHX
27-17
NY · top performer

Natasha Cloud
G · #9
23
Pts
6
Reb
5
Ast
PHX · top performer

DeWanna Bonner
F · #14
12
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1:14
WNBA · New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 40 | 18 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 3-5 | +16 | 6 | 4 | |
| 39 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-7 | — | +12 | 6 | 1 | |
| 35 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | — | +9 | 12 | 2 | |
| 40 | 23 | 9-12 | 3-6 | 2-3 | +11 | 6 | 5 | |
| 43 | 16 | 6-18 | 3-12 | 1-1 | +7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 2 | 1-6 | — | — | -17 | 8 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 76 | 30-72 | 10-33 | 6-9 | 48 | 19 | ||
| DNP: I. Harrison, S. Talbot, N. Sabally, M. Johannes | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 41 | 14 | 7-18 | — | 0-2 | -11 | 9 | 8 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| 37 | 9 | 2-17 | 1-10 | 4-4 | -18 | 8 | 2 | |
| 36 | 15 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 5-5 | -12 | 2 | 1 | |
| 34 | 8 | 2-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | -9 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 31 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +7 | 5 | 0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-5 | — | +7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 69 | 25-77 | 6-26 | 13-16 | 31 | 16 | ||
| DNP: K. Brown, K. Laksa, K. Williams, L. Held | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
32
19
Ast
16
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
30-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-77
42
FG %
32
10-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-26
6-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
10
OR
5
38
DR
26
19
Assists
16
20
Turnovers
10
Playoff series
NY leads series 1-0
How it ended
NY beat PHX 76-69. N. Cloud led with 23 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. Monique Akoa Makani's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitStarters(5)
74 PTS · 36 REB · 19 AST
GS 58
Bench(3)
2 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST
Starters(5)
48 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST
GS 23
Bench(3)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKahleah Copper · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Jonquel Jones · shooting foul
Monique Akoa Makani · lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 17 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 76 |
| PHX | 13 | 30 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 69 |
Period scoring
NY won 3 · PHX won 2
Q1
Jones 5
Copper 4
Q2
Ionescu 9
Thomas 8
Q3
Ionescu 3
Bonner 4
Q4
Cloud 6
Copper 4
OT
Fiebich 5
Thomas 2
Shooting comparison
42%
30-72
FG
32%
25-77
30%
10-33
3PT
23%
6-26
67%
6-9
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 408 plays
- OT·0.0
End of Game
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·2.5
Kennedy Burke offensive rebound
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·6.1
Leonie Fiebich misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·28.4
DeWanna Bonner lost ball turnover (Natasha Cloud steals)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−0.8pp
- OT·32.3
Sabrina Ionescu lost ball turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
+0.7pp
- OT·39.2
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·42.6
Satou Sabally misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−0.9pp
- OT·47.5
Mercury Full timeout
NY 76·PHX 69
- OT·57.3
Leonie Fiebich makes 24-foot three point jumper (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
NY 76·PHX 69
−5pp
- OT·1:16
Liberty Full timeout
NY 73·PHX 69
- OT·1:16
DeWanna Bonner makes two point shot (Satou Sabally assists)
· ·
NY 73·PHX 69
+1pp
- OT·1:21
Natasha Cloud bad pass (Satou Sabally steals)
· ·
NY 73·PHX 67
+2pp
- OT·1:41
Alyssa Thomas makes tip shot
NY 73·PHX 67
+1pp
- OT·1:41
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
NY 73·PHX 65
+0.8pp
- OT·1:42
Jonquel Jones blocks Monique Akoa Makani 's 4-foot two point shot
·
NY 73·PHX 65
−1pp
- OT·1:51
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 73·PHX 65
- OT·1:51
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 72·PHX 65
+0.5pp
- OT·1:51
Natasha Cloud misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 72·PHX 65
+0.6pp
- OT·1:51
Kahleah Copper shooting foul
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:07
Kennedy Burke enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
NY 72·PHX 65
- OT·2:07
Alyssa Thomas out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:07
Alyssa Thomas offensive rebound
NY 72·PHX 65
+1pp
- OT·2:11
Monique Akoa Makani misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
NY 72·PHX 65
−2pp
- OT·2:20
Leonie Fiebich makes 1-foot layup (Sabrina Ionescu assists)
·
NY 72·PHX 65
−3pp
- OT·2:38
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
NY 70·PHX 65
−1pp
- OT·2:41
Satou Sabally misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
NY 70·PHX 65
−5pp
- OT·2:59
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
·
NY 70·PHX 65
- OT·3:01
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
NY 70·PHX 65
+7pp
- OT·3:01
Liberty Full timeout
NY 70·PHX 65
Recap · WNBA
ew York Liberty went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 76–69 in overtime.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBP● made · ○ missed
● made · ○ missed
Four factors · this game
Who won the possession battle
Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.
eFG%
shooting
TOV%
ball control
OREB%
offensive glass
FT rate
free throws / FGA
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort
Natasha MackPHX · FTS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30599
Jonquel JonesNY · CDRB%.27493
Breanna StewartNY · FUSG%.28091
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FAST/TO2.389
Shot map + zone breakdown
wehoop via ESPN PBP● made · ○ missed
● made · ○ missed
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.6%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
59.9%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.2%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
55.2%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.94 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 70 high confidence
Points
- Breanna StewartNY22.8± 8.7high
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.2± 8.1high
- Sabrina IonescuNY18.8± 6.4high
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.6± 3.2high
- Breanna StewartNY8.8± 2.8high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.5± 2.7high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 3.9high
- Sabrina IonescuNY4.7± 1.6high
- Breanna StewartNY3.6± 2.7high
Blocks
- Breanna StewartNY1.6± 1.1high
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 0.9high
- Jonquel JonesNY1.0± 0.7high
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.4± 1.3high
- Breanna StewartNY1.3± 1.4high
- Leonie FiebichNY1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA