Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2UTA

VGK

39-26-17

UTA

43-33-6

NHLFri, Apr 24FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -112

VGK · top performer

Nic Dowd

C · #26

1Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	-1	1	7	0	0	17:17
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:00
N. DowdC · #26	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:28
J. EichelC · #9	1	0	-1	3	3	2	0	22:23
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	19:09
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:20
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	13:22
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:39
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	15:24
R. SmithRW · #19	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	13:56
C. SmithRW · #22	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	9:21
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	-2	1	0	1	0	19:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	4	0	3	2	20:50
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	21:29
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	14:03
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:55
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-2	1	1	1	2	17:15
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	19:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	12	4	8	.667	56:57

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	10:07
L. CooleyC · #92	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	19:34
L. CrouseLW · #67	2	0	2	2	4	0	0	19:17
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	0	4	5	0	0	17:22
C. KellerRW · #9	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	15:33
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	14:33
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	1	1	0	4	1	2	7:41
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	11:58
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	2	0	2	2	0	19:26
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	14:40
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	6:09
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	16:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	20:33
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	15:30
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	20:49
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	2	1	4	2	18:18
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	24:25
M. WeegarD · #52	1	1	1	1	4	0	2	19:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	32	2	30	.938	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

UTA leads series 2-1

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4today

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-11253%

UTA-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat VGK 4-2. L. Crouse led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	1	1	2
UTA	2	2	0	4

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · UTA won 2

VGK

UTA

Play-by-play · 368 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·19:55
Dylan Guenther hit Mitch Marner
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·19:37
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Mitch Marner
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:41
Ian Cole hit Nic Dowd
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:38
Reilly Smith shot blocked by Ian Cole
· ·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Mikhail Sergachev
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:35
Colton Sissons hit Mikhail Sergachev
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:33
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:33
Puck in Penalty Benches
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:57
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:57
Timeout - Visitor
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:57
Icing
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:31
Nick Schmaltz shot blocked by Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:27
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·17:19
Lawson Crouse shot blocked by Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·16:52
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·16:52
Nic Dowd Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1), Cole Smith (2)
· ·
VGK 2·UTA 4
3rd·16:47
Reilly Smith Backhand Wide Right
· ·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·16:46
Cole Smith shot blocked by John Marino
· ·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·16:02
Brayden McNabb Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·15:49
Brett Howden hit Kailer Yamamoto
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·15:09
Takeaway by Mitch Marner
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·15:06
Tomas Hertl Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·14:51
Nate Schmidt hit Jack Eichel
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·14:17
Mark Stone Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·14:04
Mitch Marner Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
VGK 1·UTA 4
3rd·13:53
Pavel Dorofeyev Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 1·UTA 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -112/UTA -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–2.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
60.4%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL