NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

50-26-6

MTL

48-24-10

NHLFri, Apr 24FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -118

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Kirby Dach

C · #77

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:52
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	4	2	2	13:18
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	16:04
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:08
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	24:17
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	1	2	1	0	2	24:58
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	12:20
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	20:35
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	7:58
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:32
B. PointC · #21	1	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:22
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	-2	0	7	2	0	11:20
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	1	1	0	3	2	17:54
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-2	1	1	1	4	14:27
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:12
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	25:27
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	26:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	29	3	26	.897	62:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	1	4	1	2	14:51
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	2	3	3	1	2	0	12:19
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:37
K. DachC · #77	1	1	3	2	1	0	2	11:32
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	15:18
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	17:32
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	16:18
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:35
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	17:51
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	18:08
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	21:11
A. TexierLW · #85	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	11:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	23:25
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	21:44
L. HutsonD · #48	1	0	0	2	3	4	0	26:40
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	24:36
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	9:58
A. XhekajD · #72	0	1	2	2	8	0	2	10:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	17	2	15	.882	61:34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

MTL leads series 2-1

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3today

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-11854%

MTL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 38 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

B. Hagel

Top skater

1 G · 2 SOG

A. Vasilevskiy

Goaltender

26 SV · 3 GA · .897

MTL

K. Dach

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG

J. Dobes

Goaltender

15 SV · 2 GA · .882

How it ended

MTL beat TB 3-2. K. Dach led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TB	1	1	0	0	2
MTL	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MTL won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·2:09
Game End
TB 2·MTL 3
1st OT·2:09
End of OT
TB 2·MTL 3
1st OT·2:09
Lane Hutson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (1), Zachary Bolduc (2)
· ·
TB 2·MTL 3
1st OT·2:00
Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·1:26
Juraj Slafkovský hit Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·1:04
Cole Caufield shot blocked by Erik Cernak
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:44
Arber Xhekaj hit Corey Perry
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:42
Josh Anderson hit J.J. Moser
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:31
Jake Evans shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:19
Arber Xhekaj hit J.J. Moser
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:00
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
TB 2·MTL 2
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:58
Nick Suzuki Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:49
Dominic James hit Lane Hutson
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:29
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Juraj Slafkovský
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·19:22
Takeaway by Nick Paul
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·18:24
Jake Evans hit Darren Raddysh
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·18:00
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:54
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Yanni Gourde
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Kaiden Guhle
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·17:25
Lane Hutson hit Yanni Gourde
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:58
Kirby Dach hit Jake Guentzel
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:56
Giveaway by Kirby Dach
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:43
Brayden Point faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:43
Puck in Crowd
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:34
Brayden Point faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:34
Off-side
TB 2·MTL 2
3rd·16:33
Nick Suzuki hit Brandon Hagel
·
TB 2·MTL 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -118/MTL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699
Lane HutsonMTL · D
BURSTS2598
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
iXG33.798
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(MTL win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.6%
P(MTL win)
11%
weight
Xg Blend
57.1%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands