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FINAL+3COL
COL

COL

45-13-10

41
CHI

CHI

26-31-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -340

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 4–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Ryan Greene

Ryan Greene

C · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
COL45-13-10CHI26-31-12
COL

COL

45-13-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

26-31-12

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

10

Season series

COL wins series 3-0

Nov 24COLCOL1@CHICHI0
Feb 28CHICHI1@COLCOL3
Mar 21COLCOL4@CHICHI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-34077%
CHICHI+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CHI 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2024
CHI0101

Period scoring

COL won 2 · CHI won 1

2
0

1

0
1

2

2
0

3

COL
CHI

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 4·CHI 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 4·CHI 1

  3. 3rd·19:23

    Nick Lardis Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  4. 3rd·19:03

    Jack Drury Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  5. 3rd·19:02

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  6. 3rd·18:44

    Jack Drury shot blocked by Alex Vlasic

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  7. 3rd·18:39

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Connor Bedard

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  8. 3rd·18:39

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·CHI 1

  9. 3rd·18:38

    Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  10. 3rd·17:53

    Dominic Toninato faceoff won against Ivan Ivan

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  11. 3rd·17:53

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 4·CHI 1

  12. 3rd·17:43

    Giveaway by Matt Grzelcyk

    COL 4·CHI 1

  13. 3rd·17:30

    Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  14. 3rd·17:07

    Josh Manson shot blocked by Sam Rinzel

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  15. 3rd·16:55

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Donato

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  16. 3rd·16:55

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·CHI 1

  17. 3rd·16:53

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  18. 3rd·16:34

    Brent Burns Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  19. 3rd·16:19

    Giveaway by Sam Lafferty

    COL 4·CHI 1

  20. 3rd·16:18

    Devon Toews hit Sam Lafferty

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  21. 3rd·14:51

    Andre Burakovsky Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  22. 3rd·14:35

    Tyler Bertuzzi faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  23. 3rd·14:35

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·CHI 1

  24. 3rd·14:33

    Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  25. 3rd·14:26

    Artyom Levshunov Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  26. 3rd·14:19

    Nicolas Roy Tip-In saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  27. 3rd·14:18

    Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  28. 3rd·13:57

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

  29. 3rd·13:57

    Off-side

    COL 4·CHI 1

  30. 3rd·13:07

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    COL 4·CHI 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

49

Shots

20

40.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

10

29

Faceoffs W

20

6

Blocks

21

14

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -340/CHI +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Ilya MikheyevCHI · RW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR