Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at CHI?

The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3COL

COL

45-13-10

CHI

26-31-12

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -340

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

3Points

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

Wyatt Kaiser

D · #44

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:52
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:29
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	12:58
I. IvanC · #82	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:09
N. KadriC · #91	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:37
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:08
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:07
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	3	1	4	3	0	0	22:12
M. NecasC · #88	1	2	1	5	1	1	0	20:40
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	0	5	0	1	2	17:54
V. NichushkinRW · #13	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:52
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	13:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:50
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:10
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	23:54
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	19:51
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	16:18
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	19:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	20	1	19	.950	59:19

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:38
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:25
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:02
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	11:32
R. GreeneC · #20	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:42
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:06
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:46
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:00
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	-2	1	1	3	0	19:04
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	11:29
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:13
D. ToninatoC · #25	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	9:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:26
M. GrzelcykD · #48	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	19:59
W. KaiserD · #44	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:38
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-1	2	4	1	4	21:23
S. RinzelD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	3	2	19:40
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	19:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	49	4	45	.918	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL wins series 3-0

Nov 24

COL1@

CHI0

Feb 28

CHI1@

COL3

Mar 21

COL4@

CHI1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-34077%

CHI+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CHI 4-1. M. Necas led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	2	0	2	4
CHI	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

COL won 2 · CHI won 1

COL

CHI

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·19:23
Nick Lardis Snap Shot Wide Right
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·19:03
Jack Drury Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·19:02
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·18:44
Jack Drury shot blocked by Alex Vlasic
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·18:39
Jack Drury faceoff won against Connor Bedard
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·18:39
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·18:38
Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·17:53
Dominic Toninato faceoff won against Ivan Ivan
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·17:53
Puck in Crowd
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·17:43
Giveaway by Matt Grzelcyk
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·17:30
Ryan Donato Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·17:07
Josh Manson shot blocked by Sam Rinzel
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:55
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:55
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:53
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:34
Brent Burns Slap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:19
Giveaway by Sam Lafferty
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·16:18
Devon Toews hit Sam Lafferty
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:51
Andre Burakovsky Tip-In Wide Right
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:35
Tyler Bertuzzi faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:35
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:33
Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:26
Artyom Levshunov Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:19
Nicolas Roy Tip-In saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·14:18
Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·13:57
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Teuvo Teravainen
·
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·13:57
Off-side
COL 4·CHI 1
3rd·13:07
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
COL 4·CHI 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -340/CHI +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 4–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.4%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
41.4%
P(CHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
41.4%
P(CHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
41.4%
P(CHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at CHI?: The model favors CHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheChicago Blackhawks

Elsewhere in the NHL