Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

35-32-2

WSH

35-27-8

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesWSH leads series 2-1VegasWSH -125

NJ · top performer

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Aliaksei Protas

C · #21

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	6:49
J. BrattLW · #63	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:04
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	23:04
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:55
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:22
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	-1	5	2	0	0	15:09
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	11:21
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:15
J. HughesC · #86	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	26:18
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:41
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	15:37
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	16:18
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	23:37
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	23:51
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	15:10
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-2	2	0	4	0	20:32
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	15:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	27	1	26	.963	58:21

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:49
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:24
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	11:51
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:23
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:02
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	14:08
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:16
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:29
A. ProtasC · #21	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:15
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	14:51
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:10
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	1	1	2	3	2	2	17:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	21:46
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:22
C. HutsonD · #44	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	17:04
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:56
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	19:14
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	31	1	30	.968	59:52

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

Nov 16

NJ3@

WSH2

Dec 28

WSH4@

NJ3

Mar 20

NJ1@

WSH2today

Apr 2

WSH3@

NJ7

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+10549%

WSH-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat NJ 2-1. A. Protas led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	0	1	1
WSH	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · WSH won 1

WSH

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:23
Dougie Hamilton hit Aliaksei Protas
·
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:17
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:17
Timeout - Visitor
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:17
Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (37)
· ·
NJ 1·WSH 2
3rd·19:11
Takeaway by Jack Hughes
·
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·19:08
Connor Brown shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
·
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·18:32
Connor McMichael Snap Shot Wide Right
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·18:28
Jack Hughes Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·18:17
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·18:17
Aliaksei Protas Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Tom Wilson (27)
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 2
3rd·18:06
Rasmus Sandin hit Connor Brown
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:56
Jack Hughes Slap Shot Short
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:55
Connor Brown Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:43
Giveaway by Jack Hughes
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:13
Luke Hughes Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:07
Luke Hughes Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·17:00
Cole Hutson hit Lenni Hameenaho
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:53
Cody Glass faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:53
Off-side
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:40
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:37
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:37
Icing
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:28
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Jack Hughes
· ·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:28
Off-side
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:06
Cody Glass faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:06
Goalie Stopped
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:03
Nico Hischier Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
NJ 0·WSH 1
3rd·16:00
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
NJ 0·WSH 1

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +105/WSH -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off New Jersey Devils, 2–1.

NJ +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Arseny Gritsyuk · NJD15:240.5454.3%51.7%15:24 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 54.3% CF · 51.7% xGF
Anthony Beauvillier · WSH17:540.4734.1%35.2%17:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 34.1% CF · 35.2% xGF
Brandon Duhaime · WSH12:060.4640.0%61.9%12:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 40.0% CF · 61.9% xGF
Ethen Frank · WSH11:300.4657.7%71.4%11:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 57.7% CF · 71.4% xGF
Aliaksei Protas · WSH18:240.4450.0%42.9%18:24 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 50.0% CF · 42.9% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH13:300.3758.6%61.7%13:30 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 58.6% CF · 61.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jake Allen · NJD26–1.963+2.3026–1 · .963 SV% · +2.30 GSAx
Logan Thompson · WSH30–1.968+1.9030–1 · .968 SV% · +1.90 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(WSH win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(WSH win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
58.1%
P(WSH win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs NJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Jesper BrattNJ
1.0± 1.7high
Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL