Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ANA

ANA

38-27-4

UTA

36-28-6

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -142

ANA · top performer

Alex Killorn

LW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:44
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:56
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:35
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	2	10	8:18
A. KillornLW · #17	1	2	2	4	1	0	0	16:39
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:01
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:22
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	1	2	1	5	4	0	19:04
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	1	0	3	2	1	0	15:09
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:36
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	1	0	1	2	5	15:00
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	0	3	3	2	10:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	24:19
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	19:54
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	22:51
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-1	0	0	2	2	11:29
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	2	0	1	6	2	20:33
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	12:44
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	16:56
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-2	2	4	3	0	20:29
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:17
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	-2	3	0	0	2	14:44
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	20:31
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:32
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	-1	0	3	1	5	10:39
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:06
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	20:22
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:15
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	16:24
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	15:42
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	20:28
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	18:13
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	-3	2	0	1	2	23:15
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	20:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. VanecekG · #41	22	2	20	.909	59:06

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA wins series 2-1

Nov 18

UTA2@

ANA3

Dec 4

UTA7@

ANA0

Mar 21

ANA4@

UTA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+12045%

UTA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat UTA 4-1. A. Killorn led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	1	2	4
UTA	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · UTA won 0

ANA

UTA

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:57
Kevin Stenlund shot blocked by Ian Moore
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:52
Jack McBain hit Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:52
Beckett Sennecke Tip-In saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:24
Mason McTavish Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:17
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:17
Goalie Stopped
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:16
Beckett Sennecke Tip-In saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:12
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:12
Jansen Harkins Misconduct
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:12
Tim Washe Roughing against Nate Schmidt
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:12
Nate Schmidt Roughing against Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:12
Barrett Hayton High-sticking against Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:05
Jansen Harkins faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:05
Mikael Granlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (22), Alex Killorn (15)
· ·
ANA 4·UTA 1
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
ANA 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:24
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Jack McBain
·
ANA 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:24
Cutter Gauthier Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (5), John Carlson (37)
· ·
ANA 3·UTA 1
3rd·18:18
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by John Carlson
·
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:15
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:15
Icing
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:04
Tim Washe faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:04
Timeout - Home
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:04
Icing
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·18:00
Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot Wide Left
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·17:19
Sean Durzi shot blocked by Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·17:06
Giveaway by Logan Cooley
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·16:54
Michael Carcone hit Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 2·UTA 1
3rd·16:49
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
ANA 2·UTA 1

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +120/UTA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL