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FINAL+3ANA
ANA

ANA

38-27-4

41
UTA

UTA

36-28-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-1VegasUTAH -142

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 4–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Alex Killorn

Alex Killorn

LW · #17

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Dylan Guenther

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
ANA38-27-4UTA36-28-6
ANA

ANA

38-27-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

36-28-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

23

PIM

17

Season series

ANA wins series 2-1

Nov 18UTAUTA2@ANAANA3
Dec 4UTAUTA7@ANAANA0
Mar 21ANAANA4@UTAUTA1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA+12045%
UTAUTA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat UTA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA1124
UTA1001

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · UTA won 0

1
1

1

1
0

2

2
0

3

ANA
UTA

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Kevin Stenlund shot blocked by Ian Moore

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Jack McBain hit Olen Zellweger

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Beckett Sennecke Tip-In saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  6. 3rd·19:24

    Mason McTavish Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  7. 3rd·19:17

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  8. 3rd·19:17

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  9. 3rd·19:16

    Beckett Sennecke Tip-In saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  10. 3rd·19:12

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  11. 3rd·19:12

    Jansen Harkins Misconduct

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  12. 3rd·19:12

    Tim Washe Roughing against Nate Schmidt

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  13. 3rd·19:12

    Nate Schmidt Roughing against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  14. 3rd·19:12

    Barrett Hayton High-sticking against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  15. 3rd·19:05

    Jansen Harkins faceoff won against Logan Cooley

    ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  16. 3rd·19:05

    Mikael Granlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (22), Alex Killorn (15)

    · ·

    ANA 4·UTA 1

  17. 3rd·19:00

    Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar

    ANA 3·UTA 1

  18. 3rd·18:24

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    ANA 3·UTA 1

  19. 3rd·18:24

    Cutter Gauthier Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (5), John Carlson (37)

    · ·

    ANA 3·UTA 1

  20. 3rd·18:18

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  21. 3rd·18:15

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  22. 3rd·18:15

    Icing

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  23. 3rd·18:04

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  24. 3rd·18:04

    Timeout - Home

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  25. 3rd·18:04

    Icing

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  26. 3rd·18:00

    Cutter Gauthier Snap Shot Wide Left

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  27. 3rd·17:19

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Ryan Poehling

    ·

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  28. 3rd·17:06

    Giveaway by Logan Cooley

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  29. 3rd·16:54

    Michael Carcone hit Leo Carlsson

    ·

    ANA 2·UTA 1

  30. 3rd·16:49

    Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar

    ANA 2·UTA 1

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

24

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

0.0

23

PIM

17

39

Faceoffs W

22

29

Blocks

12

14

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +120/UTA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993
  • Cutter GauthierANA · LW
    SHOT MPH89.691

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR