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FINAL+3CGY
FLA

FLA

34-32-3

14
CGY

CGY

28-34-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesCGY wins series 2-0VegasCGY -118

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Florida Panthers, 4–1.

CGY -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

FLA
A.J. Greer

A.J. Greer

LW · #10

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
FLA34-32-3CGY28-34-7
FLA

FLA

34-32-3

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

28-34-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

25

PIM

6

Season series

CGY wins series 2-0

Nov 28CGYCGY5@FLAFLA3
Mar 21FLAFLA1@CGYCGY4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLAFLA-10250%
CGYCGY-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat FLA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
FLA0011
CGY0224

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · CGY won 2

0
0

1

0
2

2

1
2

3

FLA
CGY

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Cole Reinhardt hit Olli Maatta

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  4. 3rd·18:44

    Joel Farabee Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  5. 3rd·18:35

    Tomas Nosek hit Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  6. 3rd·18:27

    Takeaway by Jesper Boqvist

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  7. 3rd·18:21

    Jesper Boqvist hit Kevin Bahl

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  8. 3rd·18:17

    Ryan Strome faceoff won against Tomas Nosek

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  9. 3rd·18:17

    Goalie Stopped

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  10. 3rd·18:15

    Donovan Sebrango Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  11. 3rd·18:01

    Martin Pospisil hit Nolan Foote

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  12. 3rd·17:54

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  13. 3rd·17:53

    Giveaway by Vinnie Hinostroza

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  14. 3rd·17:44

    Martin Pospisil shot blocked by Vinnie Hinostroza

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  15. 3rd·17:30

    Martin Pospisil faceoff won against Luke Kunin

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  16. 3rd·17:30

    Matt Coronato Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (7), Blake Coleman (12)

    · ·

    FLA 1·CGY 4

  17. 3rd·17:22

    Morgan Frost hit Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 3

  18. 3rd·16:59

    Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Matt Coronato

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 3

  19. 3rd·16:59

    Morgan Frost Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (11), Zayne Parekh (3)

    · ·

    FLA 1·CGY 3

  20. 3rd·16:59

    Video Review

    FLA 1·CGY 3

  21. 3rd·16:58

    Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  22. 3rd·16:58

    Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  23. 3rd·16:56

    Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  24. 3rd·16:39

    Luke Kunin faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  25. 3rd·16:39

    Tomas Nosek Tripping against Matt Coronato

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  26. 3rd·16:05

    Jesper Boqvist shot blocked by Zayne Parekh

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  27. 3rd·15:54

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  28. 3rd·15:52

    Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Dmitry Kulikov

    ·

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  29. 3rd·15:36

    Takeaway by Ryan Strome

    FLA 1·CGY 2

  30. 3rd·15:29

    Giveaway by Mike Benning

    FLA 1·CGY 2

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

25

Shots

36

0.0

PCT

28.6

25

PIM

6

23

Faceoffs W

29

7

Blocks

11

11

Giveaways

18

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -102/CGY -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
    SHOT MPH92.691
  • Jesper BoqvistFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.188

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CGY vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Blake ColemanCGY
    2.7± 1.6high
  • Sam BennettFLA
    2.7± 2.1high
  • Sam ReinhartFLA
    2.7± 1.9high

Goals

  • Blake ColemanCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Morgan FrostCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Carter VerhaegheFLA
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Aleksander BarkovFLA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Matthew TkachukFLA
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Sam ReinhartFLA
    0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR