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FINAL+1STL
EDM

EDM

32-26-9

23
STL

STL

27-29-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasEDM -142

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Edmonton Oilers, 3–2 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

STL · top performer

STL
Jonatan Berggren

Jonatan Berggren

RW · #29

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
2
3
EDM32-26-9STL27-29-10
EDM

EDM

32-26-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
STL

STL

27-29-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

6

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Nov 4EDMEDM2@STLSTL3
Jan 19STLSTL0@EDMEDM5
Mar 14EDMEDM2@STLSTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-14259%
STLSTL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat EDM 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
EDM01102
STL00213

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · STL won 2

0
0

1

1
0

2

1
2

3

0
1

OT

EDM
STL

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:51

    Game End

    EDM 2·STL 3

  2. OT·4:51

    End of OT

    EDM 2·STL 3

  3. OT·4:51

    Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Jordan Kyrou (20)

    · ·

    EDM 2·STL 3

  4. OT·4:43

    Jordan Kyrou Backhand saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  5. OT·4:02

    Jonatan Berggren Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  6. OT·3:52

    Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  7. OT·3:31

    Colton Parayko hit Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  8. OT·3:23

    Takeaway by Jimmy Snuggerud

    EDM 2·STL 2

  9. OT·2:46

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Pius Suter

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  10. OT·2:46

    Puck in Netting

    EDM 2·STL 2

  11. OT·2:43

    Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by Cam Fowler

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  12. OT·2:09

    Matt Savoie Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  13. OT·0:56

    Evan Bouchard Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  14. OT·0:48

    Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  15. OT·0:00

    Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  16. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    EDM 2·STL 2

  17. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 2·STL 2

  18. 3rd·19:32

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 2·STL 2

  19. 3rd·19:27

    Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  20. 3rd·19:17

    Matt Savoie Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  21. 3rd·19:14

    Takeaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 2·STL 2

  22. 3rd·18:56

    Zach Hyman hit Jake Neighbours

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  23. 3rd·18:52

    Mattias Ekholm Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  24. 3rd·18:31

    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Cam Fowler

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  25. 3rd·18:06

    Pius Suter faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  26. 3rd·18:06

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 2·STL 2

  27. 3rd·18:04

    Pius Suter Backhand saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  28. 3rd·17:56

    Pius Suter Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  29. 3rd·17:51

    Josh Samanski hit Philip Broberg

    ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

  30. 3rd·17:38

    Philip Broberg shot blocked by Dylan Holloway

    · ·

    EDM 2·STL 2

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

STL

Home

38

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

6

25

Faceoffs W

24

13

Blocks

12

14

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -142/STL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR