Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

EDM

32-26-9

STL

27-29-10

NHLFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasEDM -142

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jordan Kyrou

RW · #25

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	-2	0	4	2	0	13:28
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	21:06
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	9:16
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:52
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	24:11
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:46
K. KapanenRW · #42	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:23
C. McDavidC · #97	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	26:28
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	15:38
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	18:19
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:55
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	17:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	27:35
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	20:47
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	18:49
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	21:14
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:21
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	16:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	25	3	22	.880	64:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	1	0	1	4	0	0	12:36
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:14
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:00
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	20:26
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	16:27
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	13:54
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:43
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	13:00
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:53
P. SuterC · #22	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:04
R. ThomasC · #18	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:41
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	11:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	27:57
C. FowlerD · #17	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	23:18
J. HollD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	16:13
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:28
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-1	1	2	0	4	21:16
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	22:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	38	2	36	.947	64:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Nov 4

EDM2@

STL3

Jan 19

STL0@

EDM5

Mar 14

EDM2@

STL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM-14259%

STL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat EDM 3-2. J. Kyrou led the way — 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
EDM	0	1	1	0	2
STL	0	0	2	1	3

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · STL won 2

EDM

STL

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:51
Game End
EDM 2·STL 3
OT·4:51
End of OT
EDM 2·STL 3
OT·4:51
Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Jordan Kyrou (20)
· ·
EDM 2·STL 3
OT·4:43
Jordan Kyrou Backhand saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·4:02
Jonatan Berggren Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·3:52
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·3:31
Colton Parayko hit Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·3:23
Takeaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·2:46
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·2:46
Puck in Netting
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·2:43
Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·2:09
Matt Savoie Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·0:56
Evan Bouchard Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·0:48
Leon Draisaitl Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·0:00
Oskar Sundqvist faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 2·STL 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·19:32
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·19:27
Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·19:17
Matt Savoie Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·19:14
Takeaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:56
Zach Hyman hit Jake Neighbours
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:52
Mattias Ekholm Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:31
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:06
Pius Suter faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:06
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·18:04
Pius Suter Backhand saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·17:56
Pius Suter Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·17:51
Josh Samanski hit Philip Broberg
·
EDM 2·STL 2
3rd·17:38
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Dylan Holloway
· ·
EDM 2·STL 2

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -142/STL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Edmonton Oilers, 3–2 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.6%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL

Kings3Islanders2Final