Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

27-23-15

NYI

37-24-5

NHLFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesLA wins series 2-0VegasNYI -142

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:05
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:46
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	17:35
A. KopitarC · #11	1	0	2	3	1	1	0	20:53
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	19:24
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	3	4	1	4	18:05
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	6:44
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	19:01
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	19:49
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	12:15
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7:04
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	12:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	1	0	2	5	0	23:44
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	16:12
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:15
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	23:28
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:11
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	17:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	23	2	21	.913	59:35

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	24:56
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:38
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	6:20
E. HeinemanLW · #51	2	0	1	2	5	0	0	15:44
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:56
B. HorvatC · #14	0	2	1	1	0	1	2	23:37
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	15:08
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:59
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:50
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:46
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-1	1	3	3	2	17:36
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	7:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:01
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	9:27
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	24:14
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	22:25
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	29:24
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	9:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	27	3	24	.889	57:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA wins series 2-0

Mar 6

NYI3@

LA5

Mar 13

LA3@

NYI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+12045%

NYI-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat NYI 3-2. A. Kempe led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	3	0	0	3
NYI	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

LA won 1 · NYI won 2

NYI

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:58
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:56
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:56
Timeout - Visitor
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:56
Scott Laughton Tripping against Mathew Barzal
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:56
Scott Laughton High-sticking against Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:45
Anders Lee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:24
Adrian Kempe shot blocked by Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:05
Brayden Schenn Slap Shot Short
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:01
Timeout - Home
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·19:01
Icing
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·18:58
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Left
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:50
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Wide Left
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:47
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:45
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:22
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:22
Off-side
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·17:02
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Short
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·16:34
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·16:02
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·15:27
Jared Wright hit Matthew Schaefer
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:47
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·14:15
Jared Wright Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·13:44
Jared Wright hit Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·12:34
Emil Heineman hit Drew Doughty
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·12:31
Alex Laferriere hit Adam Pelech
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·12:28
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·NYI 2
3rd·11:42
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·NYI 2

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +120/NYI -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into New York Islanders and beat them, 3–2.

LA +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Adrian Kempe · LAK17:480.6551.4%58.5%17:48 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 51.4% CF · 58.5% xGF
Anders Lee · NYI15:240.6169.7%72.1%15:24 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 69.7% CF · 72.1% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI25:060.5467.4%79.5%25:06 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 67.4% CF · 79.5% xGF
Alex Laferriere · LAK19:360.4951.9%62.8%19:36 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 51.9% CF · 62.8% xGF
Anze Kopitar · LAK20:540.4145.8%55.8%20:54 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 45.8% CF · 55.8% xGF
Jared Wright · LAK12:180.3952.2%57.8%12:18 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 52.2% CF · 57.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI24–3.889+0.3224–3 · .889 SV% · +0.32 GSAx
Darcy Kuemper · LAK21–2.913+0.2521–2 · .913 SV% · +0.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
66.1%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.1%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.1%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL

Oilers2Blues3Final/OT