Mar 15, 26sim 98
214
30(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1LA
LA
27-23-15
32
NYI
37-24-5
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
os Angeles Kings went into New York Islanders and beat them, 3–2.
LA +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Adrian Kempe
RW · #9
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NYI · top performer
Emil Heineman
LW · #51
2Points
2
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
LA27-23-15
32
NYI37-24-5
LA27-23-15NYI37-24-5
LA
27-23-15
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
NYI
37-24-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
PIM
8
Season series
LA wins series 2-0
Mar 6NYI3@LA5
NYI3@LA5Mar 13LA3@NYI2today
LA3@NYI2todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYI -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA+12045%NYI-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LA beat NYI 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · NYI won 2
3
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
3
LA
NYI
Play-by-play · 307 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:58
Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:56
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:56
Timeout - Visitor
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:56
Scott Laughton Tripping against Mathew Barzal
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:56
Scott Laughton High-sticking against Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:45
Anders Lee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:24
Adrian Kempe shot blocked by Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:05
Brayden Schenn Slap Shot Short
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:01
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:01
Timeout - Home
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·19:01
Icing
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·18:58
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot Wide Left
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:50
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot Wide Left
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:47
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:45
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:22
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:22
Off-side
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·17:02
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Short
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·16:34
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·16:02
Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·15:27
Jared Wright hit Matthew Schaefer
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·14:47
Tony DeAngelo Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·14:15
Jared Wright Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·13:44
Jared Wright hit Brayden Schenn
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·12:34
Emil Heineman hit Drew Doughty
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·12:31
Alex Laferriere hit Adam Pelech
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·12:28
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·NYI 2
- 3rd·11:42
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 3·NYI 2
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
NYI
Home
27
Shots
23
0.0
PCT
0.0
10
PIM
8
19
Faceoffs W
27
23
Blocks
14
11
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
5
Betting line
NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +120/NYI -142
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Matthew SchaeferNYI · DBURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · DSHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · CDIST MI274.399- Emil HeinemanNYI · LWSHOT MPH97.399
Bo HorvatNYI · CSHOT MPH93.494
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · NYI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-142
Close price
-142
Open no-vig
56.3%
Close no-vig
56.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
NYI vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 126 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
- Quinton ByfieldLA3.0± 2.2high
- Bo HorvatNYI2.9± 0.9high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
- Andrei KuzmenkoLA0.3± 0.7high
Points
- Alex LaferriereLA0.8± 0.8high
- Artemi PanarinLA0.8± 0.7high
- Mathew BarzalNYI0.8± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands