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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

40-10-9

42
LA

LA

24-22-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -185

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Gabriel Landeskog

Gabriel Landeskog

LW · #92

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

LA · top performer

LA
Adrian Kempe

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
COL40-10-9LA24-22-14
COL

COL

40-10-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
LA

LA

24-22-14

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Playoff series

Apr 19LALA1@COLCOL2
Apr 22LALA1@COLCOL2
Apr 24COLCOL4@LALA2
Apr 26COLCOL5@LALA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-18565%
LALA+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat LA 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2024
LA1102

Period scoring

COL won 2 · LA won 1

2
1

1

0
1

2

2
0

3

COL
LA

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 4·LA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 4·LA 2

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Corey Perry

    ·

    COL 4·LA 2

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Martin Necas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (19)

    ·

    COL 4·LA 2

  5. 3rd·19:45

    Alex Laferriere hit Cale Makar

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Alex Laferriere

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  7. 3rd·19:25

    Brandt Clarke Tripping against Martin Necas

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  8. 3rd·19:17

    Giveaway by Artemi Panarin

    COL 3·LA 2

  9. 3rd·19:13

    Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  10. 3rd·19:13

    Timeout - Home

    COL 3·LA 2

  11. 3rd·19:13

    Puck in Netting

    COL 3·LA 2

  12. 3rd·19:11

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  13. 3rd·18:48

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Corey Perry

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  14. 3rd·18:47

    Giveaway by Corey Perry

    COL 3·LA 2

  15. 3rd·18:38

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  16. 3rd·18:31

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  17. 3rd·18:04

    Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  18. 3rd·17:35

    Anze Kopitar hit Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  19. 3rd·17:13

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Anze Kopitar

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  20. 3rd·17:13

    Puck in Netting

    COL 3·LA 2

  21. 3rd·17:05

    Martin Necas hit Adrian Kempe

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  22. 3rd·16:56

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Anze Kopitar

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  23. 3rd·16:56

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 3·LA 2

  24. 3rd·16:53

    Kenny Connors Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  25. 3rd·16:27

    Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  26. 3rd·16:27

    Giveaway by Sam Malinski

    COL 3·LA 2

  27. 3rd·15:52

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Alex Laferriere

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  28. 3rd·15:40

    Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

  29. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Brent Burns

    COL 3·LA 2

  30. 3rd·15:18

    Josh Manson hit Corey Perry

    ·

    COL 3·LA 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

LA

Home

39

Shots

21

100.0

PCT

100.0

4

PIM

4

30

Faceoffs W

26

11

Blocks

23

23

Giveaways

13

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/LA +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · LA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR