Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LA?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

COL

40-10-9

24-22-14

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesCOL wins series 3-0VegasCOL -185

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Brandt Clarke

D · #92

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:14
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:30
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	12:23
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:03
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	2	16:40
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	18:44
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:21
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	1	3	8	0	1	0	21:07
M. NecasC · #88	1	2	3	2	2	1	0	20:25
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	19:13
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:06
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	18:13
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:21
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	3	5	0	3	0	25:26
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:07
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	17:23
D. ToewsD · #7	1	0	2	1	1	1	0	22:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	21	2	19	.905	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. ConnorsC · #34	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	10:14
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	16:11
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	11:28
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	20:52
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	-1	2	2	2	0	20:08
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	-1	0	7	1	0	20:18
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	10:01
A. PanarinLW · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:24
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	17:15
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:49
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:01
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	-2	0	1	4	0	22:35
A. BoothD · #81	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	12:18
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	24:24
B. ClarkeD · #92	1	0	-1	2	0	2	4	23:30
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:02
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	-1	0	3	5	0	19:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	38	3	35	.921	58:36

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 19

LA1@

COL2

Apr 22

LA1@

COL2

Apr 24

COL4@

LA2

Apr 26

COL5@

LA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-18565%

LA+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat LA 4-2. N. MacKinnon led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	2	0	2	4
LA	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

COL won 2 · LA won 1

COL

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 4·LA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 4·LA 2
3rd·19:58
Jack Drury faceoff won against Corey Perry
·
COL 4·LA 2
3rd·19:58
Martin Necas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (19)
·
COL 4·LA 2
3rd·19:45
Alex Laferriere hit Cale Makar
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:25
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:25
Brandt Clarke Tripping against Martin Necas
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:17
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:13
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:13
Timeout - Home
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:13
Puck in Netting
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·19:11
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·18:48
Cale Makar shot blocked by Corey Perry
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Corey Perry
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·18:38
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·18:31
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·18:04
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·17:35
Anze Kopitar hit Parker Kelly
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·17:13
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·17:13
Puck in Netting
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·17:05
Martin Necas hit Adrian Kempe
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·16:56
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·16:56
Goalie Stopped
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·16:53
Kenny Connors Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·16:27
Joel Edmundson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Sam Malinski
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·15:52
Brent Burns shot blocked by Alex Laferriere
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·15:40
Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Brent Burns
COL 3·LA 2
3rd·15:18
Josh Manson hit Corey Perry
·
COL 3·LA 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/LA +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 4–2.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
43.2%
P(LA win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
43.2%
P(LA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
42.9%
P(LA win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at LA?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
4.1± 2.3high
Nazem KadriCOL
3.1± 2.3high
Alex LaferriereLA
3.0± 1.6high

Goals

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
0.7± 0.7high
Adrian KempeLA
0.5± 0.7high
Quinton ByfieldLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
1.5± 1.2high
Martin NecasCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Mats ZuccarelloLA
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL