Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SEA

CAR

38-16-6

SEA

29-22-9

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -185

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Ben Meyers

C · #59

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:57
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:51
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:51
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	17:02
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:14
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	9:30
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	19:38
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	15:42
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	8:29
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	17:18
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:23
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	5	1	0	2	15:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:39
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-2	4	0	2	0	19:39
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:12
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	13:38
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	22:48
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	20:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	15	2	13	.867	57:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	19:13
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:48
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:55
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	14:36
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:09
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	17:43
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	1	1	7	2	0	12:20
B. MeyersC · #59	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:08
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:19
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:58
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-1	2	3	4	2	17:21
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	12:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	23:42
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	13:52
C. FleuryD · #8	0	0	1	1	2	4	0	14:08
A. LarssonD · #6	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	21:42
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	22:46
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	0	11	2	0	18:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	36	1	35	.972	59:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 11

SEA2@

CAR3

Mar 3

CAR1@

SEA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-18565%

SEA+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat CAR 2-1. B. Meyers led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
SEA	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · SEA won 1

CAR

SEA

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:58
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:54
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:44
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:29
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Jamie Oleksiak
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:24
Jamie Oleksiak hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:08
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:08
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·19:06
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:59
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:50
Freddy Gaudreau shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:38
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Jamie Oleksiak
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:31
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:31
Timeout - Visitor
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:31
Eeli Tolvanen Holding against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·18:12
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Eeli Tolvanen
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·17:58
Jordan Staal Tip-In Wide Right
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·17:52
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Eeli Tolvanen
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·17:39
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·17:39
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:48
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:48
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:46
Nikolaj Ehlers Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:35
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:35
Goalie Stopped
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·16:33
Sebastian Aho Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
CAR 1·SEA 2
3rd·15:48
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Eeli Tolvanen
·
CAR 1·SEA 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -185/SEA +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Carolina Hurricanes, 2–1.

SEA +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(SEA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.4%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.4%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL