Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5DAL

DAL

37-14-9

VAN

18-35-7

NHLMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasDAL -205

DAL · top performer

Colin Blackwell

C · #15

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Evander Kane

LW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:51
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	13:50
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	2	1	2	0	4	14:11
C. BlackwellC · #15	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	13:27
M. BourqueC · #22	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:15
M. DucheneC · #95	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	14:51
A. ErneLW · #73	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:03
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	13:50
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:19
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	17:57
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:00
S. SteelC · #18	0	2	2	4	2	0	0	14:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:49
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	22:34
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	20:17
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	19:58
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:26
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	17:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	14	1	13	.929	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	16:13
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	0	-3	0	1	0	0	15:51
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	16:56
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	15:58
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:06
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	13:14
E. KaneLW · #91	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	17:22
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:46
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	12:54
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:49
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	19:22
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-3	2	0	1	0	13:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:58
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-1	1	2	2	2	21:00
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:38
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	1	-3	1	0	2	0	23:43
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:01
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-2	0	0	2	2	22:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	37	6	31	.838	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

Oct 17

VAN5@

DAL3

Nov 21

DAL4@

VAN2

Mar 3

DAL6@

VAN1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-20567%

VAN+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat VAN 6-1. C. Blackwell led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	1	2	3	6
VAN	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · VAN won 0

DAL

VAN

Play-by-play · 296 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·19:41
Conor Garland hit Nathan Bastian
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·19:07
Giveaway by Teddy Blueger
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Zeev Buium
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:50
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:50
Puck in Crowd
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:43
Adam Erne Slap Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:37
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Colin Blackwell
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:37
High Stick
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Ilya Lyubushkin
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:07
David Kampf hit Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·18:06
Giveaway by Elias Pettersson
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·17:54
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against David Kampf
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·17:54
Goalie Stopped
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·17:52
Arttu Hyry Backhand saved by Nikita Tolopilo
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·17:21
Nathan Bastian hit Zeev Buium
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:48
Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:41
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:41
Puck in Netting
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:39
Lian Bichsel shot blocked by Conor Garland
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:37
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:37
Goalie Stopped
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:37
Matt Duchene Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·16:30
Takeaway by Jamie Benn
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·15:49
Giveaway by Jake DeBrusk
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·15:41
David Kampf faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·15:41
Lian Bichsel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (13), Jason Robertson (36)
· ·
DAL 6·VAN 1
3rd·15:29
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
DAL 5·VAN 1
3rd·15:29
Icing
DAL 5·VAN 1

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -205/VAN +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 6–1.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Brock BoeserVAN · RW
SHOT MPH96.498
Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
iXG34.998
Filip HronekVAN · D
DIST MI292.398
Nils HoglanderVAN · LW
SHOT MPH93.694
Pierre-Olivier JosephVAN · D
SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.4%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
38.5%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
38.5%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
38.5%
P(VAN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.