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FINAL+1WSH
VGK

VGK

28-17-14

23
WSH

WSH

31-23-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasWSH -115

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
B

Braeden Bowman

RW · #42

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
VGK28-17-14WSH31-23-7
VGK

VGK

28-17-14

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

31-23-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Feb 28VGKVGK2@WSHWSH3today
Mar 29WSHWSH5@VGKVGK4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-10551%
WSHWSH-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat VGK 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0022
WSH0303

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · WSH won 1

0
0

1

0
3

2

2
0

3

VGK
WSH

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Martin Fehervary

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  5. 3rd·19:40

    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Martin Fehervary

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  6. 3rd·19:34

    Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  7. 3rd·19:21

    Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  8. 3rd·19:09

    Tomas Hertl Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  9. 3rd·18:49

    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Mitch Marner

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  10. 3rd·18:38

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Tom Wilson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  11. 3rd·18:22

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  12. 3rd·18:22

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  13. 3rd·18:20

    Mark Stone Deflected saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  14. 3rd·17:58

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  15. 3rd·17:58

    Puck in Crowd

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  16. 3rd·17:15

    Pierre-Luc Dubois shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  17. 3rd·17:00

    Brayden McNabb hit Ethen Frank

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  18. 3rd·16:46

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  19. 3rd·16:46

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  20. 3rd·16:44

    Pierre-Luc Dubois Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  21. 3rd·16:38

    Giveaway by Reilly Smith

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  22. 3rd·16:36

    Giveaway by Ethen Frank

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  23. 3rd·16:29

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Mitch Marner

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  24. 3rd·16:29

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  25. 3rd·16:27

    Noah Hanifin Backhand saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  26. 3rd·16:25

    Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  27. 3rd·16:24

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  28. 3rd·16:07

    Brayden McNabb hit Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  29. 3rd·16:03

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Tom Wilson

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

  30. 3rd·16:02

    Jakob Chychrun Deflected saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    VGK 2·WSH 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

26

Shots

30

33.3

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

6

26

Faceoffs W

28

12

Blocks

17

20

Giveaways

19

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -105/WSH -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR