Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

VGK

28-17-14

WSH

31-23-7

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasWSH -115

VGK · top performer

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	15:14
B. BowmanRW · #42	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:18
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	-1	1	0	1	0	16:24
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	20:46
T. HertlC · #48	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	18:26
A. HoltzRW · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	8:04
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:28
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	19:50
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:28
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	11:06
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:08
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	20:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	20:46
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	3	0	2	2	19:55
K. KorczakD · #6	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	13:02
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	20:35
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	0	0	6	2	0	17:37
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	30	3	27	.900	58:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:48
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:13
P. DuboisLW · #80	2	1	3	6	0	1	0	19:37
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:36
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:58
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:42
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:03
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	3	2	2	0	17:43
A. ProtasC · #21	0	2	3	2	1	0	0	19:38
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:59
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:26
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	21:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	10:59
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	0	1	6	0	2	0	24:43
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	1	0	2	5	0	22:04
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:20
R. SandinD · #38	0	2	3	2	2	2	0	21:30
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	12:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	26	2	24	.923	59:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Feb 28

VGK2@

WSH3today

Mar 29

WSH5@

VGK4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-10551%

WSH-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat VGK 3-2. P. Dubois led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	0	2	2
WSH	0	3	0	3

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · WSH won 1

VGK

WSH

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:58
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:42
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:40
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:34
Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:21
Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·19:09
Tomas Hertl Tip-In Wide Left
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·18:49
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Mitch Marner
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·18:38
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Tom Wilson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·18:22
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·18:22
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·18:20
Mark Stone Deflected saved by Logan Thompson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·17:58
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·17:58
Puck in Crowd
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·17:15
Pierre-Luc Dubois shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·17:00
Brayden McNabb hit Ethen Frank
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:46
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:46
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:44
Pierre-Luc Dubois Snap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Reilly Smith
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:36
Giveaway by Ethen Frank
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:29
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:29
Goalie Stopped
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:27
Noah Hanifin Backhand saved by Logan Thompson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:25
Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:24
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:07
Brayden McNabb hit Jakob Chychrun
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:03
Jeremy Lauzon hit Tom Wilson
·
VGK 2·WSH 3
3rd·16:02
Jakob Chychrun Deflected saved by Akira Schmid
·
VGK 2·WSH 3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -105/WSH -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Vegas Golden Knights, 3–2.

VGK +1.5 cashed (WSH won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.5%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL