Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

WPG

23-26-9

ANA

32-23-3

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesANA leads series 2-0VegasANA -135

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Beckett Sennecke

RW · #45

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:01
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	-1	3	0	0	0	26:39
A. IafalloLW · #9	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:57
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:04
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	16:30
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:51
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	13:08
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	12:02
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	2	3	4	2	1	0	20:38
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	26:17
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	12:47
G. VilardiC · #13	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	24:28
V. HeinolaD · #34	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	12:07
E. SalomonssonD · #57	1	0	2	4	0	0	0	17:40
D. SambergD · #54	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	23:30
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	0	4	1	5	13:39
L. StanleyD · #64	0	2	0	2	1	0	2	28:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	40	5	35	.875	64:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:34
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	18:30
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	11:00
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	3	1	5	10:51
A. KillornLW · #17	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:10
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:00
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:01
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	19:10
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	3	2	3	3	0	0	19:05
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:50
T. WasheC · #42	0	1	1	3	3	1	2	11:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:13
D. HellesonD · #14	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:53
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	1	6	1	4	0	28:44
P. MintyukovD · #98	1	1	0	1	0	1	2	20:28
I. MooreD · #74	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:06
J. TroubaD · #65	1	0	-1	3	2	2	0	26:57
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	3	1	2	4	14:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	33	4	29	.879	64:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA leads series 2-0

Nov 10

WPG1@

ANA4

Feb 28

WPG4@

ANA5today

Mar 11

ANA4@

WPG1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+11447%

ANA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat WPG 5-4. B. Sennecke led the way — 3 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WPG	1	1	2	0	4
ANA	0	1	3	1	5

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · ANA won 2

WPG

ANA

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:47
Game End
WPG 4·ANA 5
OT·4:47
End of OT
WPG 4·ANA 5
OT·4:47
Chris Kreider Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Beckett Sennecke (29)
·
WPG 4·ANA 5
OT·4:06
Gustav Nyquist Poke saved by Lukas Dostal
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·4:03
Takeaway by Mark Scheifele
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·3:52
Dylan Samberg Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·3:32
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·3:01
Olen Zellweger Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·1:46
Cutter Gauthier Backhand Wide Right
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·1:24
Jacob Trouba Backhand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·1:23
Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·1:11
Logan Stanley Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:56
Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:50
Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:11
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:11
Puck in Netting
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:08
Adam Lowry shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:00
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Cole Perfetti
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:29
Jacob Trouba hit Tanner Pearson
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:13
Tim Washe hit Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:00
Tim Washe faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:59
Morgan Barron Batted Wide Left
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:57
Morgan Barron Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:38
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:38
Kyle Connor Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Logan Stanley (11)
· ·
WPG 4·ANA 4
3rd·18:33
Logan Stanley shot blocked by Ross Johnston
·
WPG 3·ANA 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +114/ANA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Winnipeg Jets, 5–4 in overtime.

WPG +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
63.6%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.6%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.6%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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