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FINAL+1ANA
WPG

WPG

23-26-9

45
ANA

ANA

32-23-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesANA leads series 2-0VegasANA -135

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Winnipeg Jets, 5–4 in overtime.

WPG +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Beckett Sennecke

Beckett Sennecke

RW · #45

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
5
WPG23-26-9ANA32-23-3
WPG

WPG

23-26-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

32-23-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

13

Season series

ANA leads series 2-0

Nov 10WPGWPG1@ANAANA4
Feb 28WPGWPG4@ANAANA5today
Mar 11ANAANA4@WPGWPG1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPGWPG+11447%
ANAANA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat WPG 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
WPG11204
ANA01315

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · ANA won 2

1
0

1

1
1

2

2
3

3

0
1

OT

WPG
ANA

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:47

    Game End

    WPG 4·ANA 5

  2. OT·4:47

    End of OT

    WPG 4·ANA 5

  3. OT·4:47

    Chris Kreider Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Beckett Sennecke (29)

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 5

  4. OT·4:06

    Gustav Nyquist Poke saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  5. OT·4:03

    Takeaway by Mark Scheifele

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  6. OT·3:52

    Dylan Samberg Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  7. OT·3:32

    Kyle Connor Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  8. OT·3:01

    Olen Zellweger Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  9. OT·1:46

    Cutter Gauthier Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  10. OT·1:24

    Jacob Trouba Backhand saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  11. OT·1:23

    Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  12. OT·1:11

    Logan Stanley Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  13. OT·0:56

    Jackson LaCombe Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  14. OT·0:50

    Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  15. OT·0:11

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  16. OT·0:11

    Puck in Netting

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  17. OT·0:08

    Adam Lowry shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  18. OT·0:00

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  19. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  20. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  21. 3rd·19:39

    Giveaway by Cole Perfetti

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  22. 3rd·19:29

    Jacob Trouba hit Tanner Pearson

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  23. 3rd·19:13

    Tim Washe hit Dylan DeMelo

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  24. 3rd·19:00

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  25. 3rd·19:00

    Goalie Stopped

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  26. 3rd·18:59

    Morgan Barron Batted Wide Left

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  27. 3rd·18:57

    Morgan Barron Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  28. 3rd·18:38

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  29. 3rd·18:38

    Kyle Connor Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Logan Stanley (11)

    · ·

    WPG 4·ANA 4

  30. 3rd·18:33

    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Ross Johnston

    ·

    WPG 3·ANA 4

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

33

Shots

40

25.0

PCT

50.0

9

PIM

13

28

Faceoffs W

25

6

Blocks

15

13

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

8

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +114/ANA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR