Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at UTA?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTA

MIN

35-15-10

UTA

31-24-4

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesUTA leads series 2-0VegasUTAH -142

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	1	1	1	7	1	4	0	17:41
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	1	3	1	4	12:34
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-3	4	0	2	0	17:40
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	9:55
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:24
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	0	-2	2	0	0	0	21:00
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:13
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:18
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	15:24
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:24
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	1	-2	2	1	2	0	17:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	17:17
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	23:26
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	25:15
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	13:40
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	3	3	0	18:17
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	18:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	37	5	32	.865	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:50
L. CooleyC · #92	1	0	2	3	1	2	0	15:51
L. CrouseLW · #67	2	0	2	5	3	0	0	15:33
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:25
B. HaytonC · #27	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:53
C. KellerRW · #9	1	2	1	2	0	1	0	16:41
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	12:08
J. McBainC · #22	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	14:35
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:44
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	2	1	3	0	0	2	16:19
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:03
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:29
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	18:53
O. MaattaD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:51
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	20:36
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:35
M. SergachevD · #98	0	2	2	5	2	0	0	25:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	23	2	21	.913	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA leads series 2-0

Oct 25

UTA6@

MIN2

Feb 28

MIN2@

UTA5today

Mar 11

UTA0@

MIN5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+12045%

UTA-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat MIN 5-2. L. Crouse led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	1	1	2
UTA	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · UTA won 3

MIN

UTA

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·20:00
Vincent Hinostroza Slashing against John Marino
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·19:54
Vincent Hinostroza Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·19:26
JJ Peterka Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:59
Quinn Hughes Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:51
Giveaway by Michael Carcone
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:40
Sean Durzi hit Kirill Kaprizov
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:31
Yakov Trenin Batted Wide Right
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:29
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·18:01
Jake Middleton hit Jack McBain
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·17:36
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·17:36
Puck in Netting
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·16:03
Matt Boldy hit Barrett Hayton
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·15:56
Mats Zuccarello hit JJ Peterka
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·15:23
Mikhail Sergachev hit Mats Zuccarello
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:59
Dylan Guenther Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:55
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:55
Goalie Stopped
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:52
Kevin Stenlund Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:51
Zach Bogosian hit Michael Carcone
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:05
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·14:05
Matt Boldy Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (17), Marcus Johansson (25)
· ·
MIN 2·UTA 5
3rd·13:54
Matt Boldy Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
MIN 1·UTA 5
3rd·13:47
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Matt Boldy
·
MIN 1·UTA 5
3rd·13:38
Giveaway by Brock Faber
MIN 1·UTA 5
3rd·13:13
Vinnie Hinostroza Backhand Wide Left
·
MIN 1·UTA 5
3rd·13:11
Jared Spurgeon Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
MIN 1·UTA 5
3rd·12:48
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
MIN 1·UTA 5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +120/UTA -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Minnesota Wild, 5–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.3%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.3%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at UTA?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL