NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

BUF

34-19-6

FLA

30-26-3

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasFLA -115

BUF · top performer

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	16:23
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:54
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	10:45
P. KrebsC · #19	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:37
B. MalenstynLW · #29	1	0	1	3	1	1	2	10:57
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:58
J. NorrisC · #9	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	17:46
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:23
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:35
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	19:39
A. TuchRW · #89	1	1	1	6	1	3	0	19:23
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	23:42
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	25:04
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	12:19
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:13
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	23:46
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	1	3	3	2	0	23:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	29	2	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:19
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	8:21
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	6:43
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	16:43
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:09
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	16:10
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:24
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	17:36
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	12:49
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	21:34
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	17:21
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	8:38
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	27:18
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	23:51
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	25:29
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:24
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	10:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	38	2	36	.947	58:05

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Oct 18

FLA0@

BUF3

Jan 13

FLA4@

BUF3

Feb 3

BUF5@

FLA3

Feb 28

BUF3@

FLA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-10551%

FLA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat FLA 3-2. A. Tuch led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	1	0	2	3
FLA	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · FLA won 1

BUF

FLA

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:45
Aaron Ekblad hit Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:43
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:43
Off-side
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:25
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:25
On-Ice Official
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:25
Sam Bennett Goal (20) , assists: none
BUF 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:03
Brad Marchand Tip-In saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 3·FLA 1
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Josh Dunne
BUF 3·FLA 1
3rd·18:43
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Sam Reinhart
·
BUF 3·FLA 1
3rd·18:43
Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (31), Alex Tuch (27)
· ·
BUF 3·FLA 1
3rd·18:33
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:33
Icing
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:29
Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Right
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:27
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by Matthew Tkachuk
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:10
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:10
Icing
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:57
Giveaway by Sam Reinhart
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:45
Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:57
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:57
Puck in Benches
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:49
Josh Dunne Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:48
Beck Malenstyn Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:42
Josh Dunne hit Brad Marchand
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:25
Jason Zucker Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·15:58
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·15:58
Puck in Netting
BUF 2·FLA 1
3rd·15:56
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad
·
BUF 2·FLA 1

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -105/FLA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 3–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
52.5%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.5%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.5%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresFlorida Panthers

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