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FINAL+1BUF
BUF

BUF

34-19-6

32
FLA

FLA

30-26-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasFLA -115

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 3–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Alex Tuch

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Bennett

Sam Bennett

C · #9

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
BUF34-19-6FLA30-26-3
BUF

BUF

34-19-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

30-26-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Oct 18FLAFLA0@BUFBUF3
Jan 13FLAFLA4@BUFBUF3
Feb 3BUFBUF5@FLAFLA3
Feb 28BUFBUF3@FLAFLA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-10551%
FLAFLA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat FLA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1023
FLA0112

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · FLA won 1

1
0

1

0
1

2

2
1

3

BUF
FLA

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  3. 3rd·19:45

    Aaron Ekblad hit Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Off-side

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  6. 3rd·19:25

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  7. 3rd·19:25

    On-Ice Official

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  8. 3rd·19:25

    Sam Bennett Goal (20) , assists: none

    BUF 3·FLA 2

  9. 3rd·19:03

    Brad Marchand Tip-In saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·FLA 1

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Giveaway by Josh Dunne

    BUF 3·FLA 1

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Sam Reinhart

    ·

    BUF 3·FLA 1

  12. 3rd·18:43

    Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (31), Alex Tuch (27)

    · ·

    BUF 3·FLA 1

  13. 3rd·18:33

    Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Icing

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  15. 3rd·18:29

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Right

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  16. 3rd·18:27

    Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  17. 3rd·18:25

    Takeaway by Matthew Tkachuk

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  18. 3rd·18:10

    Sam Bennett faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  19. 3rd·18:10

    Icing

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  20. 3rd·17:57

    Giveaway by Sam Reinhart

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  21. 3rd·17:45

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  22. 3rd·16:57

    Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  23. 3rd·16:57

    Puck in Benches

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  24. 3rd·16:49

    Josh Dunne Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  25. 3rd·16:48

    Beck Malenstyn Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  26. 3rd·16:42

    Josh Dunne hit Brad Marchand

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  27. 3rd·16:25

    Jason Zucker Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  28. 3rd·15:58

    Sam Bennett faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  29. 3rd·15:58

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 2·FLA 1

  30. 3rd·15:56

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Aaron Ekblad

    ·

    BUF 2·FLA 1

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

39

Shots

29

33.3

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

6

25

Faceoffs W

42

18

Blocks

16

15

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -105/FLA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497
  • Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
    SKATE MPH23.195
  • Sam BennettFLA · C
    DIST MI239.693
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR