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FINAL+2TB
UTA

UTA

27-21-4

02
TB

TB

33-14-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -155

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Utah Mammoth, 2–0.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Daniil But

Daniil But

LW · #19

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
2
UTA27-21-4TB33-14-4
UTA

UTA

27-21-4

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

33-14-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

PIM

17

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Nov 2TBTB4@UTAUTA2
Jan 27UTAUTA0@TBTB2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA+13043%
TBTB-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat UTA 2-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA0000
TB0112

Period scoring

UTA won 0 · TB won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

UTA
TB

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 0·TB 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 0·TB 2

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Jack McBain faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  4. 3rd·19:44

    Zemgus Girgensons Roughing against Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  5. 3rd·19:44

    Mikhail Sergachev Roughing against Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  6. 3rd·19:44

    Mikhail Sergachev Roughing against Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  7. 3rd·19:44

    Zemgus Girgensons Cross-checking against Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  8. 3rd·19:44

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    UTA 0·TB 2

  9. 3rd·19:41

    J.J. Moser Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  10. 3rd·19:35

    Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  11. 3rd·19:24

    Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz

    UTA 0·TB 2

  12. 3rd·19:14

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  13. 3rd·19:14

    Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (12), Nikita Kucherov (54)

    · ·

    UTA 0·TB 2

  14. 3rd·19:07

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  15. 3rd·19:07

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 0·TB 1

  16. 3rd·19:05

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Poke saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  17. 3rd·19:04

    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by John Marino

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  18. 3rd·19:02

    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Dylan Guenther

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  19. 3rd·18:43

    Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  20. 3rd·18:24

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  21. 3rd·18:23

    Jake Guentzel Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  22. 3rd·17:56

    Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  23. 3rd·17:53

    Brandon Hagel Slap Shot Short

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  24. 3rd·17:33

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  25. 3rd·17:33

    Puck in Crowd

    UTA 0·TB 1

  26. 3rd·17:29

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  27. 3rd·17:29

    Lawson Crouse Roughing against Darren Raddysh

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  28. 3rd·17:29

    On-Ice Official

    UTA 0·TB 1

  29. 3rd·17:20

    Zemgus Girgensons hit Sean Durzi

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

  30. 3rd·16:57

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    UTA 0·TB 1

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

28

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

50.0

19

PIM

17

27

Faceoffs W

25

8

Blocks

20

10

Giveaways

10

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +130/TB -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR