Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

UTA

27-21-4

33-14-4

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -155

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

0Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ButLW · #19	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:50
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	12:55
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	17:51
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	18:28
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:28
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:56
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:13
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:27
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:14
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:47
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:39
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	13:40
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:23
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	20:39
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	20:15
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	21:03
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	0	2	2	1	6	25:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:44
A. CirelliC · #71	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:17
J. FinleyC · #62	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7:11
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	4	6	16:39
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	12:34
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:07
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:33
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	21:46
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:38
D. JamesC · #17	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:14
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	2	0	5	0	3	0	18:20
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	8:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17:24
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	15:15
M. CrozierD · #24	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:54
M. GroshevD · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:57
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	0	3	0	5	0	25:29
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	25:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	28	0	28	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Nov 2

TB4@

UTA2

Jan 27

UTA0@

TB2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+13043%

TB-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat UTA 2-0. N. Kucherov led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	0	0	0	0
TB	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

UTA won 0 · TB won 2

UTA

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Jack McBain faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Zemgus Girgensons Roughing against Mikhail Sergachev
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Mikhail Sergachev Roughing against Zemgus Girgensons
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Mikhail Sergachev Roughing against Zemgus Girgensons
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Zemgus Girgensons Cross-checking against Mikhail Sergachev
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:44
Puck Frozen - Goalie
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:41
J.J. Moser Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:35
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:24
Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:14
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:14
Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (12), Nikita Kucherov (54)
· ·
UTA 0·TB 2
3rd·19:07
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·19:07
Goalie Stopped
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·19:05
Oliver Bjorkstrand Poke saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·19:04
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by John Marino
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·19:02
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Dylan Guenther
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·18:43
Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·18:24
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·18:23
Jake Guentzel Tip-In Wide Left
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:56
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:53
Brandon Hagel Slap Shot Short
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:33
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:33
Puck in Crowd
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:29
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:29
Lawson Crouse Roughing against Darren Raddysh
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:29
On-Ice Official
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·17:20
Zemgus Girgensons hit Sean Durzi
·
UTA 0·TB 1
3rd·16:57
Sean Durzi shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
·
UTA 0·TB 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +130/TB -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Utah Mammoth, 2–0.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Utah MammothTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL