Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYR

BOS

30-20-3

NYR

22-25-6

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasBOS -122

BOS · top performer

Elias Lindholm

C · #28

2Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Will Cuylle

LW · #50

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:45
M. GeekieC · #39	1	0	2	4	2	1	0	19:13
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	9:49
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:31
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:19
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:07
E. LindholmC · #28	2	0	1	4	0	2	0	20:43
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:49
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:45
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	3	0	2	1	1	0	22:30
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	11:25
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	17:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:36
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	20:26
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	24:49
M. LohreiD · #6	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	14:49
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	0	2	0	0	4	24:07
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	28	4	24	.857	63:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. CarrickC · #39	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:52
W. CuylleLW · #50	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	15:12
N. LabaC · #42	0	1	0	1	6	1	0	13:29
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	1	0	0	6	1	0	19:05
J.T. MillerLW · #8	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:12
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	0	1	0	6	1	0	9:57
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	24:15
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	16:35
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:31
M. RempeC · #73	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	8:43
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	25:06
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	1	0	3	3	0	0	21:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	1	0	-1	3	1	0	0	18:23
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	26:23
S. MorrowD · #60	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:51
M. RobertsonD · #29	1	0	0	2	2	1	0	22:01
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	21:08
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	12:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	24	3	21	.875	63:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Nov 28

NYR6@

BOS2

Jan 10

NYR2@

BOS10

Jan 27

BOS3@

NYR4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-12255%

NYR+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat BOS 4-3. W. Cuylle led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BOS	1	2	0	0	3
NYR	2	0	1	1	4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · NYR won 3

BOS

NYR

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:53
Game End
BOS 3·NYR 4
OT·3:53
End of OT
BOS 3·NYR 4
OT·3:53
Matthew Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Quick (1), Vincent Trocheck (22)
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 4
OT·3:22
David Pastrnak Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·3:10
Braden Schneider Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·2:53
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·2:20
Morgan Geekie Snap Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·1:49
Hampus Lindholm Snap Shot Off Crossbar
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·1:45
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·0:00
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:21
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:21
Icing
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:12
Morgan Geekie Tip-In Wide Left
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:06
David Pastrnak Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:01
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·19:00
Marat Khusnutdinov Snap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·18:32
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·18:32
Puck in Benches
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·18:21
Andrew Peeke Slap Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·18:09
Gabe Perreault shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·18:08
Gabe Perreault shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·17:05
Takeaway by Artemi Panarin
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·17:01
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·17:01
Goalie Stopped
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·16:58
Noah Laba Backhand saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·16:53
Brennan Othmann hit Jonathan Aspirot
·
BOS 3·NYR 3
3rd·16:19
David Pastrnak hit Braden Schneider
·
BOS 3·NYR 3

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS -122/NYR +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Boston Bruins, 4–3 in overtime.

NYR +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.0%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.0%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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