LA
35-27-20
CBJ
40-30-12
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
No player stats available yet.
No player stats available yet.
Season series
CBJ lead series 1-0
CBJ3@
LA1LA0@CBJ0todayLA5@CBJ4Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CBJ -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-10250%CBJ-11854%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 18 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
Betting line
CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·LA -102/CBJ -118
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.5%
ensemble · CBJ favored
Elo Static
59.5%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.5%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.5%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
1 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-118
Close price
-118
Open no-vig
51.7%
Close no-vig
51.7%
Line barely moved
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CBJ?
- The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.