Jan 20, 26sim 98
133
25(H)5
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL
LA
35-27-20
00
CBJ
40-30-12
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Postponed
LA35-27-20
00
CBJ40-30-12
LA35-27-20CBJ40-30-12
LA
35-27-20
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CBJ
40-30-12
| Player |
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Season series
CBJ lead series 1-0
Dec 23CBJ3@LA1
CBJ3@LA1Jan 27LA0@CBJ0today
LA0@CBJ0todayMar 9LA5@CBJ4
LA5@CBJ4Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CBJ -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-10250%CBJ-11854%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 14 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
Betting line
CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·LA -102/CBJ -118
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · CBJ favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-118
Close price
-118
Open no-vig
51.7%
Close no-vig
51.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
CBJ vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 132 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Zach WerenskiCBJ3.4± 2.5high
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
- Quinton ByfieldLA3.0± 2.2high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
- Adam FantilliCBJ0.3± 0.5high
Points
- Kirill MarchenkoCBJ0.8± 0.9high
- Mason MarchmentCBJ0.8± 0.7high
- Alex LaferriereLA0.8± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands