NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

CAR

28-14-4

DET

28-15-4

NHLMon, Jan 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -155

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Carolina Hurricanes, 4–3 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. AhoC · #20	0	2	-1	3	2	0	10	21:45
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	0	0	3	1	0	2	16:38
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	17:38
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	-1	2	0	0	2	15:39
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:22
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	19:22
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:23
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	14:40
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:29
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	16:07
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:22
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	19:26

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:38
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	-1	4	0	2	10	18:48
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	18:30
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	15:56
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-2	2	0	5	2	21:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	20:15

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
F. AndersenG · #31	18	4	14	.778	63:14

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:20
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:50
A. CoppC · #18	1	1	3	1	0	1	0	18:18
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	2	2	3	0	1	0	17:12
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	13:43
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:50
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	12:47
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	18:55
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:27
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	-1	0	0	1	2	18:32
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	9:43
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:25

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	15:13
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	1	1	2	4	2	2	22:17
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	0	1	8	0	26:16
A. JohanssonD · #20	1	0	1	1	0	2	2	17:46
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	9:31
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	27:43

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. GibsonG · #36	34	3	31	.912	63:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 28

DET2@

CAR5

Jan 13

CAR3@

DET4today

Mar 1

DET2@

CAR5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-15561%

DET+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CAR 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	0	0	3	0	3
DET	1	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · DET won 3

CAR

DET

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:27
Game End
CAR 3·DET 4
OT·3:27
End of OT
CAR 3·DET 4
OT·3:27
Shayne Gostisbehere Misconduct
CAR 3·DET 4
OT·3:27
Sebastian Aho Misconduct
CAR 3·DET 4
OT·3:27
Andrew Copp Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25)
·
CAR 3·DET 4
OT·3:13
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·1:53
Takeaway by Albert Johansson
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·1:24
Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·1:12
Simon Edvinsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·0:46
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·0:40
Seth Jarvis Backhand Hit Left Post
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·19:11
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·19:10
Jordan Martinook Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:50
Dylan Larkin shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:41
Alex DeBrincat Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:12
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:12
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:10
Alex DeBrincat Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·18:01
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·17:40
Sebastian Aho hit Patrick Kane
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·17:30
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·17:30
Taylor Hall Tripping against Michael Rasmussen
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·16:59
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·16:59
Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (28)
·
CAR 3·DET 3
3rd·16:44
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·DET 3
3rd·16:07
Shayne Gostisbehere Slap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·DET 3

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -155/DET +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Moritz SeiderDET · D
DIST MI299.899
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
DIST MI60.999
Taylor HallCAR · LW
BURSTS5998
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
BURSTS5897
Seth JarvisCAR · C
DIST MI56.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(DET win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(DET win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(DET win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit