NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BUF

ANA

21-21-3

BUF

24-15-4

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -148

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Anaheim Ducks, 5–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	20:03
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	15:03
M. GranlundC · #64	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:34
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	9:33
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	18:54
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:29
M. McTavishC · #23	1	0	-2	2	2	0	2	16:57
N. NesterenkoC · #13	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	10:47
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:55
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	19:25
R. StromeC · #16	0	0	-1	0	2	0	7	12:31
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	10:18

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	19:29
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	-3	1	2	1	0	18:58
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	2	1	0	3	0	21:05
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	20:58
I. MooreD · #74	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	14:24
O. ZellwegerD · #51	1	0	0	4	0	2	2	19:51

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
L. DostalG · #1	31	4	27	.871	58:46

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	2	0	5	0	0	0	13:51
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	2	0	0	1	7	15:09
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	11:04
P. KrebsC · #19	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	15:48
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:00
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:18
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	0	4	0	3	2	15:12
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:32
J. QuinnRW · #22	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:41
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	19:49
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	-1	2	1	2	0	19:10
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:39

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:07
B. ByramD · #4	1	0	2	2	0	2	0	25:56
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	-1	3	0	5	2	25:37
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:05
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	22:03
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	23:59

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
U. LuukkonenG · #1	36	3	33	.917	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Jan 11

ANA3@

BUF5today

Mar 23

BUF5@

ANA6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+12445%

BUF-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat ANA 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	0	3	3
BUF	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · BUF won 2

ANA

BUF

Play-by-play · 354 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 3·BUF 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 3·BUF 5
3rd·19:49
Noah Ostlund faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·BUF 5
3rd·19:49
Josh Norris Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (22)
·
ANA 3·BUF 5
3rd·19:39
Ryan McLeod shot blocked by Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:30
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:27
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:27
Icing
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:22
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot Wide Right
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:20
Josh Norris faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:20
Puck in Benches
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:16
Takeaway by Chris Kreider
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:12
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:12
Mason McTavish Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (26), Beckett Sennecke (20)
· ·
ANA 3·BUF 4
3rd·18:51
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:51
Off-side
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:35
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:30
Mikael Granlund Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:25
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:25
Timeout - Visitor
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:25
Icing
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:06
Giveaway by Jack Quinn
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:02
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:02
Leo Carlsson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Moore (5)
·
ANA 2·BUF 4
3rd·17:45
Alex Killorn Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
ANA 1·BUF 4
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin
ANA 1·BUF 4
3rd·17:21
Chris Kreider shot blocked by Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 1·BUF 4
3rd·17:13
Chris Kreider shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
·
ANA 1·BUF 4
3rd·16:00
Tim Washe faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
ANA 1·BUF 4
3rd·16:00
Jack Quinn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (15), Owen Power (11)
· ·
ANA 1·BUF 4

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +124/BUF -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Leo CarlssonANA · C
BURSTS4995
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
SHOT MPH96.091
Cutter GauthierANA · LW
SHOT MPH89.690
Jackson LaCombeANA · D
DIST MI47.989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
62.5%
P(BUF win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.5%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.5%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit