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FINAL+1BUF
NYI

NYI

19-13-4

23
BUF

BUF

16-14-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSat, Dec 20FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -170

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off New York Islanders, 3–2.

NYI +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
3
NYI19-13-4BUF16-14-4
NYI

NYI

19-13-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

16-14-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Dec 20NYINYI2@BUFBUF3today
Jan 24BUFBUF5@NYINYI0
Mar 31NYINYI3@BUFBUF4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI+14241%
BUFBUF-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYI 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
NYI011002
BUF110013

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · BUF won 2

0
1

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

NYI
BUF

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Calum Ritchie Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Josh Norris Goal Wrist Shot

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Jonathan Drouin Backhand saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Noah Ostlund Wrist Shot Short

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Emil Heineman Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Mathew Barzal Goal Backhand

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  14. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    NYI 1·BUF 2

  15. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  16. OT·4:43

    Jonathan Drouin faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  17. OT·4:43

    Alex Tuch Tripping against Matthew Schaefer

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  18. OT·4:43

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  19. OT·4:38

    Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  20. OT·4:09

    Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  21. OT·4:07

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  22. OT·4:01

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Alex Tuch

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  23. OT·4:01

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  24. OT·3:58

    Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  25. OT·3:38

    Giveaway by Mathew Barzal

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  26. OT·3:20

    Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  27. OT·3:03

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  28. OT·2:49

    Simon Holmstrom Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  29. OT·2:48

    Simon Holmstrom Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

  30. OT·2:15

    Emil Heineman hit Josh Norris

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 2

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

34

Shots

32

33.3

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

6

33

Faceoffs W

27

8

Blocks

11

21

Giveaways

18

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +142/BUF -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR