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ATL#2 · National Football Conference
Atlanta Falcons
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#20 of 32
Elo rating 1472.3 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 28 vs SEA, 9-37, 2025-12-07. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 1 at TB, 29-28, 2025-12-11. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 7 at ARI, 26-19, 2025-12-21. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 vs LAR, 27-24, 2025-12-29. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 2 vs NO, 19-17, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 17th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 920 graded plays; the defense ranked 11th across 931.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
920 off plays · 931 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.014
Team EPA per play
17th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.033
Team EPA per play allowed
11th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split920/931 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.01448
17th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.064 (14th)
Success44.8%52
15th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 48.7% (5th)
Explosive8.2%68
11th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.8% (5th)
Dropbacks+0.05655
15th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.080 (14th)
Rushes-0.04155
15th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.044 (7th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.03368
11th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.072 (26th)
Success44.0%55
15th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 47.2% (28th)
Explosive7.2%61
13th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.1% (8th)
Dropbacks-0.03671
10th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.148 (28th)
Rushes-0.02935
21st of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.051 (21st)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.064 · -0.050
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.033 · 2024 REG +0.072 · -0.105
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 920 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Michael Penix Jr.9 TD1,982
- 2Kirk Cousins10 TD1,721
Rushing yards
- 1Bijan Robinson7 TD1,478
- 2Tyler Allgeier8 TD514
- 3Michael Penix Jr.1 TD70
- 4Nate Carter0 TD60
- 5Kirk Cousins1 TD7
Receiving yards
- 1Kyle Pitts5 TD928
- 2Drake London7 TD919
- 3Bijan Robinson4 TD820
- 4Darnell Mooney1 TD443
- 5David Sills2 TD191
Receptions
- 1Kyle Pitts17 G88
- 2Bijan Robinson17 G79
- 3Drake London12 G68
- 4Darnell Mooney15 G32
- 5David Sills12 G18
Total TDs
- 1Kirk Cousins10 G11
- 2Bijan Robinson17 G11
- 3Michael Penix Jr.9 G10
- 4Tyler Allgeier17 G8
- 5Drake London12 G7
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Michael Penix Jr.
276 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate41.5
- EPA / play+0.042
- Accuracy +-3.2%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.042 EPA/play and -3.2% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Middle
avg rank 16.8
YDS
17th
Total yards
PASS
21st
Pass yards
RUSH
8th
Rush yards
PTS
26th
Points
TO
12th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
63% pass · 37% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
344vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
218vs 225 yds/GLeague avg
Rushing yards
126vs 117 yds/GSlight edge
Points scored
19.4vs 23.5 pts/GBelow avg
Turnovers
0.80vs 0.90 TO/GSlight edge
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 4 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Acquired T Wanya Morris and a 2027 seventh-round pick from Kansas City in exchange for a 2027 sixth-round pick.
- Jun 11
Placed OT Storm Norton on the PUP List.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 42
The attack
A. Stueber
G · #74
A. Wells Jr.
WR · #82
A. Hooper
TE · #81
B. Robinson
RB · #7
B. Walton
OT · #67
B. Robinson Jr.
RB · #15
C. Jones
RB · #32
C. Woerner
TE · #89
C. Blair
WR · #19
C. Lindstrom
G · #63
C. Rush
QB · #13
C. Levin
G · #62
D. London
WR · #5
D. Drummond
WR · #80
E. Onianwa
OT · #75
J. Nelson
OT · #69
J
J. Strand
QB · #18
J. Velling
TE · #84
J. Dotson
WR · #4
J. Matthews
OT · #70
J. Brockermeyer
C · #66
J. Taylor
OT · #71
J. Simon
TE · #47
K. Dewberry
G · #61
K. Marion
WR · #85
K. Hinton
G · #68
K. Pitts Sr.
TE · #8
L. Robinson
G · #73
L. Brockington
WR · #88
M. Bergeron
G · #65
M. Jerrell
OT · #72
M. Penix Jr.
QB · #9
N. Carter
RB · #38
O. Zaccheaus
WR · #14
R. Mahlman
OT · #76
R. Neuzil
C · #64
S. Norton
OT · #77
T. Tagovailoa
QB · #1
T. Goodson
RB · #25
V. Anthony II
WR · #86
W. Morris
OT · #79
Z. Branch
WR · #17
Defense · 45
The stop unit
A.J. Terrell Jr.
CB · #24
A.J. Woods
CB · #20
A. Thompson
DT · #98
A. Terrell
CB · #12
A. Ojulari
LB · #51
B. Bowman Jr.
CB · #33
B. Trice
LB · #48
B. Dorlus
DT · #54
C.J. Henderson
CB · #39
C. Thomas
DE · #99
C. Allen Jr.
DT · #79
C. Tindall
LB · #55
C. Williams
DT · #91
C. Harris
LB · #45
C. Phillips III
CB · #22
C. Bryant
CB · #37
D. Hand
DT · #90
D. Holmes
CB · #30
D. Hall
CB · #41
D. Rayner
LB · #42
D. Malone
LB · #50
D. Hellams
S · #23
D. Maxwell
DT · #91
D. Deablo
LB · #0
H. Perkins Jr.
LB · #56
J. Walker
LB · #11
J. Pearce Jr.
LB · #27
J. Robinson
S · #34
J. Bertrand
LB · #40
J. Bates III
S · #3
J. Woods
LB · #46
K. Daniels
LB · #53
K. Banks
DE · #59
L. London
DE · #94
M. Smith
DT · #92
M. DeWalt IV
CB · #36
M. Verdon
LB · #43
M. Ford Jr.
CB · #28
M. Hughes
CB · #21
N. Brooks
CB · #35
S. Ebukam
DE · #52
S. Brown
S · #29
T. Andersen
LB · #44
X. Watts
S · #31
Z. Harrison
DE · #96
Special teams · 5
