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DET
19LiveHalftime
IND
13Updated 2:42 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
HALFTIME+6DET
DET
1-1
1913
IND
0-1-1
NFL · Drive chart
11 drives · 4 TD · 2 FG · 2 INT · 1 Fum · 1 PuntFGIND7p · 45y INTDET4p · 13y FGIND7p · 23y TDDET10p · 75y PuntIND4p · 17y TDDET16p · 87y TDIND8p · 60y FumDET0p INTIND3p TDDET8p · 76y ½IND1p · -1y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
DET
league avg
IND
32.1
Pts / game
◀
23.5
27.2
389
Yds / game
◀
342
358
269
Pass yds / G
◀
225
240
120
Rush yds / G
◀
117
118
0.7
TO / G
◀
0.9
0.9
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
