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IND#7 · American Football Conference
Indianapolis Colts
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#19 of 32
Elo rating 1479.1 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 17 at JAX, 19-36, 2025-12-07. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 2 at SEA, 16-18, 2025-12-14. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 21 vs SF, 27-48, 2025-12-22. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 6 vs JAX, 17-23, 2025-12-28. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 8 at HOU, 30-38, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 8th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 865 graded plays; the defense ranked 19th across 916.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
865 off plays · 916 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.075
Team EPA per play
8th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.037
Team EPA per play allowed
19th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split865/916 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.07577
8th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.061 (26th)
Success45.4%61
13th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 39.7% (28th)
Explosive7.0%39
20th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.9% (4th)
Dropbacks+0.10371
10th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.064 (27th)
Rushes+0.03381
7th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.058 (15th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.03742
19th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.007 (14th)
Success46.7%26
24th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 42.7% (10th)
Explosive7.4%52
16th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.9% (26th)
Dropbacks+0.10039
20th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.079 (19th)
Rushes-0.06461
13th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.118 (9th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.075 · 2024 REG -0.061 · +0.137
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.037 · 2024 REG -0.007 · +0.045
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 865 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Daniel Jones19 TD3,101
- 2Philip Rivers4 TD544
- 3Riley Leonard2 TD415
- 4Rigoberto Sanchez0 TD16
- 5Anthony Richardson0 TD9
Rushing yards
- 1Jonathan Taylor18 TD1,585
- 2Daniel Jones5 TD164
- 3DJ Giddens0 TD96
- 4Ameer Abdullah1 TD60
- 5Ashton Dulin0 TD44
Receiving yards
- 1Alec Pierce6 TD1,003
- 2Tyler Warren4 TD817
- 3Michael Pittman7 TD784
- 4Josh Downs4 TD566
- 5Jonathan Taylor2 TD378
Receptions
- 1Michael Pittman17 G80
- 2Tyler Warren17 G76
- 3Josh Downs16 G58
- 4Alec Pierce15 G47
- 5Jonathan Taylor17 G46
Total TDs
- 1Daniel Jones13 G24
- 2Jonathan Taylor17 G20
- 3Michael Pittman17 G7
- 4Alec Pierce15 G6
- 5Tyler Warren17 G5
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Daniel Jones
384 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate75.5
- EPA / play+0.201
- Accuracy +3.4%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.201 EPA/play and 3.4% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Strong
avg rank 11.6
YDS
9th
Total yards
PASS
8th
Pass yards
RUSH
17th
Rush yards
PTS
9th
Points
TO
15th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
67% pass · 33% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
358vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
240vs 225 yds/GSlight edge
Rushing yards
118vs 117 yds/GLeague avg
Points scored
27.2vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg
Turnovers
0.90vs 0.90 TO/GLeague avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 8 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 2 · PICK 53
CJ Allen
LB · Georgia
RND 3 · PICK 78
Adari Haulcy
SAF · LSU
RND 4 · PICK 113
Jalen Farmer
G · Kentucky
RND 4 · PICK 135
Bryce Boettcher
LB · Oregon
RND 5 · PICK 156
George Gumbs Jr.
EDGE · Florida
RND 6 · PICK 214
Caden Curry
EDGE · Ohio St.
RND 7 · PICK 237
Seth McGowan
RB · Kentucky
RND 7 · PICK 254
Deion Burks
WR · Oklahoma
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 9
Placed S Reuben Lowery III on the reserve/retired list.
- Jun 2
Signed G Jalen Farmer and LB Bryce Boettcher to rookie contracts.
- Jun 1
Signed C Josh Kreutz, CB Jai'Onte' McMillan and QB Easton Stick to contracts. Waived CB Wyett Ekeler, G LaDarius Henderson and QB Seth Henigan.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 44
The attack
A. Pierce
WR · #14
A. Castle
RB · #42
A. Gould
WR · #6
A. Richardson Sr.
QB · #5
A. Dulin
WR · #16
B. Matos
OT · #78
B. Raimann
OT · #79
B. Freeland
OT · #73
C
C. Towt
TE · #45
C. Owen
WR · #9
D. Tucker
G · #68
D. Jones
QB · #17
D. Burks
WR · #80
D. Giddens
RB · #21
D. Ogletree
TE · #85
E. Stick
QB · #4
E. Horton Jr.
WR · #10
E. Pancol
WR · #83
G. VanDeMark
C · #63
J. Farmer
G · #62
J. Travis
OT · #75
J. Morrissey
C · #65
J. Taylor
RB · #28
J. Downs
WR · #2
J. Kreutz
C · #61
J. Sills
G · #66
L. Treadwell
WR · #13
L. Clifford
WR
L. Tenuta
OT · #67
M. Goncalves
G · #71
M. Alie-Cox
TE · #81
N. Westbrook-Ikhine
WR · #12
N. Rucci
OT · #76
Q. Nelson
G · #56
R. Sharpe
WR · #8
R. Leonard
QB · #15
R. Williams
RB
S. Hagans
WR · #11
S. McKeon
TE · #49
S. McGowan
RB · #20
T. Bortolini
C · #60
T. Warren
TE · #84
U. Bentley IV
RB · #37
W. Mallory
TE · #86
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A.J. Haulcy
S · #25
A. Adebawore
DT · #95
A. Davis-Gaither
LB · #51
A. Key
DE · #98
A. Ajiake
LB · #58
A. Brown
S · #31
B. Nikkel
S · #34
B. Boettcher
LB · #50
C. Curry
LB · #55
C. Bynum
S · #0
C. Taylor-Britt
CB · #26
C. Ball
DT · #64
C. Mitchell
CB · #43
C. Ward
CB · #7
C. Allen
LB · #53
C. Wooden
DT · #96
D. Scott
S · #32
D. Buckner
DT · #99
D. Nnadi
DT · #92
D
D. Veresuk
LB · #48
D. Nchami
DE · #74
G. Gumbs Jr.
LB · #52
G. Stewart
DT · #90
H. Wohler
S · #30
J. McMillan
CB · #42
J. Tuimoloau
DE · #91
J. Carlies
LB · #57
J. Jones
CB · #40
J. Tillery
DT · #94
J. Edwards
CB · #35
J. Owens
S · #38
J. Thomas
S · #33
J. Walley
CB · #27
L. Latu
DE · #97
M. Blackmon
CB · #29
M. Clemons
DE · #72
M. Melton
DE · #54
R
R. Carter Jr.
CB · #39
S. Gardner
CB · #1
T. Chambers
LB · #44
T. Smith
DT · #93
T. Washington
S · #41
W. Weeks
LB · #47
Special teams · 4
