NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16LAL

LAL

51-29

119103

37-43

NBAThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesLAL win series 3-1VegasGS -1.5

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Charles Bassey

C · #28

14.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	32	26	11-17	3-5	1-2	+19	8	11
R. HachimuraF · #28	30	12	5-12	2-4	0-1	+20	2	2
J. LaRaviaF · #12	31	16	6-7	4-5	—	+29	7	4
D. AytonC · #5	31	21	9-11	—	3-4	+19	5	1
L. KennardG · #10	32	14	6-11	1-2	1-1	+20	2	8
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	5	0	0-1	—	—	-10	1	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	26	2	1-3	0-2	—	+15	6	5
D. TimmeF · #17	9	4	2-3	0-1	—	-9	1	2
D. KnechtF · #4	4	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
A. ThieroF · #1	7	0	0-1	—	—	-13	0	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	11	12	4-5	4-5	—	+9	0	0
K. BufkinG · #18	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-7	0	1
B. JamesG · #9	21	10	4-7	2-4	—	-5	1	3
Team		119	49-80	16-29	5-8		33	37
DNP: C. Manon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	22	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-7	5	6
D. MeltonG · #8	15	2	1-5	0-3	—	-12	3	2
N. WilliamsG · #19	35	17	7-13	3-6	—	-16	4	3
P. SpencerG · #61	38	12	5-12	2-5	—	-17	4	6
B. PodziemskiG · #2	24	17	7-15	1-5	2-2	-17	1	1
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	24	12	4-8	0-2	4-4	-13	4	3
C. BasseyC · #28	30	12	6-8	—	—	-8	13	1
Se. CurryG · #31	23	11	4-9	1-3	2-2	-1	2	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	14	10	4-4	—	2-2	+12	1	0
L. CryerG · #18	15	8	3-6	2-5	—	-1	1	2
Team		103	41-81	9-30	12-12		38	24
DNP: G. Santos, W. Richard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

Home

49-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-81

FG %

16-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-30

5-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 3-1

Oct 22

GS119@

LAL109

Feb 8

GS99@

LAL105

Mar 1

LAL129@

GS101

Apr 10

LAL119@

GS103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-10250%

GS-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -1.5↗SpreadBet GS -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat GS 119-103. L. James paced them with 26 PTS, 8 REB, 11 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 24 REB · 26 AST

GS 92

Bench(8)

30 PTS · 9 REB · 11 AST

GS 23

GSstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 17 REB · 18 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

53 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS2nd Quarter · 8:07 · 31-35

+6pp→ 55% WP

Pat Spencer · makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshot

LAL2nd Quarter · 3:50 · 46-39

+9pp→ 77% WP

LJ Cryer · bad pass turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	28	25	29	37	119
GS	23	26	24	30	103

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · GS won 1

James 12

Cryer 6

Hachimura 8

II 6

Ayton 12

Melton 10

Jr. 12

Williams 22

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

61%

49-80

51%

41-81

55%

16-29

3PT

30%

9-30

63%

5-8

100%

12-12

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 119·GS 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 119·GS 103
Q4·8.2
Charles Bassey makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Nate Williams assists)
·
LAL 119·GS 103
Q4·25.9
Bronny James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)
· ·
LAL 119·GS 101
Q4·37.6
Nate Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malevy Leons assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 101
Q4·51.0
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
LAL 116·GS 98
Q4·52.3
Drew Timme misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 116·GS 98
Q4·1:11
Nate Williams makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 98
Q4·1:25
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
LAL 116·GS 96
Q4·1:31
Charles Bassey blocks Adou Thiero 's 7-foot layup
·
LAL 116·GS 96
Q4·1:42
Seth Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 96
Q4·1:58
Drew Timme makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 116·GS 93
Q4·2:10
Nate Williams makes 1-foot reverse layup (Malevy Leons assists)
·
LAL 114·GS 93
Q4·2:30
Kobe Bufkin makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Drew Timme assists)
·
LAL 114·GS 91
Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 112·GS 91
Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 112·GS 90
Q4·2:46
Kobe Bufkin personal foul
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons offensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·2:46
Seth Curry misses 22-foot jumper
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:03
Seth Curry defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:05
Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:19
Drew Timme defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:21
Malevy Leons misses driving floating jump shot
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Drew Timme enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.
·
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Adou Thiero enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Rui Hachimura personal foul
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:41
Charles Bassey defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
Q4·3:42
Nick Smith Jr. misses 31-foot three point jumper
LAL 112·GS 89

Betting line

GS -1.5·O/U 222.5·LAL -102/GS -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 119–103.

LAL +1.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort

Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Brandin PodziemskiGS · G
TOUCHES60.386
Pat SpencerPHX · G
DRIVES5.370

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high
Kevon LooneyLAL
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Matisse ThybulleLAL
1.7± 1.8high
Ziaire WilliamsLAL
1.7± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.5

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Team pages

Los Angeles LakersGolden State Warriors

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR