LAL
51-29
GS
37-43
Recap · NBA
os Angeles Lakers went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 119–103.
LAL +1.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAL · top performer
LeBron James
F · #23
26
Pts
8
Reb
11
Ast
GS · top performer
Charles Bassey
C · #28
12
Pts
13
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 26 | 11-17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | +19 | 8 | 11 | |
| 30 | 12 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | +20 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 16 | 6-7 | 4-5 | — | +29 | 7 | 4 | |
| 31 | 21 | 9-11 | — | 3-4 | +19 | 5 | 1 | |
| 32 | 14 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | +20 | 2 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +15 | 6 | 5 | |
| 9 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | -9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -13 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 12 | 4-5 | 4-5 | — | +9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | — | -5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 119 | 49-80 | 16-29 | 5-8 | 33 | 37 | ||
| DNP: C. Manon | ||||||||
DNP: C. Manon
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -7 | 5 | 6 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | -12 | 3 | 2 | |
| 35 | 17 | 7-13 | 3-6 | — | -16 | 4 | 3 | |
| 38 | 12 | 5-12 | 2-5 | — | -17 | 4 | 6 | |
| 24 | 17 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -17 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 12 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | -13 | 4 | 3 | |
| 30 | 12 | 6-8 | — | — | -8 | 13 | 1 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 14 | 10 | 4-4 | — | 2-2 | +12 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-5 | — | -1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 103 | 41-81 | 9-30 | 12-12 | 38 | 24 | ||
| DNP: G. Santos, W. Richard | ||||||||
DNP: G. Santos, W. Richard
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
61
FG %
51
37
Ast
24
Season series
LAL win series 3-1
GS119@LAL109GS99@LAL105LAL129@GS101LAL119@GS103todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
222.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL-10250%GS-11854%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
222.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:50
LALL. James
FGame leader · 32 minDouble-double
26 PTS · 8 REB · 11 AST
GSC. Bassey
CGame leader · 30 minDouble-double
12 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
LAL beat GS 119-103. L. James paced them with 26 PTS, 8 REB, 11 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 24 REB · 26 AST
GS 92
Bench(8)
30 PTS · 9 REB · 11 AST
GS 23
GSstarters 49% of ptsStarters(5)
50 PTS · 17 REB · 18 AST
GS 36
Bench(5)
53 PTS · 21 REB · 6 AST
GS 49
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPat Spencer · makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshot
LJ Cryer · bad pass turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 28 | 25 | 29 | 37 | 119 |
| GS | 23 | 26 | 24 | 30 | 103 |
Period scoring
LAL won 3 · GS won 1
Q1
James 12
Cryer 6
Q2
Hachimura 8
II 6
Q3
Ayton 12
Melton 10
Q4
Jr. 12
Williams 22
Shooting comparison
61%
49-80
FG
51%
41-81
55%
16-29
3PT
30%
9-30
63%
5-8
FT
100%
12-12
Play-by-play · 399 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 119·GS 103
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 119·GS 103
- Q4·8.2
Charles Bassey makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Nate Williams assists)
·
LAL 119·GS 103
- Q4·25.9
Bronny James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)
· ·
LAL 119·GS 101
- Q4·37.6
Nate Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malevy Leons assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 101
- Q4·51.0
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
LAL 116·GS 98
- Q4·52.3
Drew Timme misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 116·GS 98
- Q4·1:11
Nate Williams makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 98
- Q4·1:25
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
LAL 116·GS 96
- Q4·1:31
Charles Bassey blocks Adou Thiero 's 7-foot layup
·
LAL 116·GS 96
- Q4·1:42
Seth Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
LAL 116·GS 96
- Q4·1:58
Drew Timme makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 116·GS 93
- Q4·2:10
Nate Williams makes 1-foot reverse layup (Malevy Leons assists)
·
LAL 114·GS 93
- Q4·2:30
Kobe Bufkin makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Drew Timme assists)
·
LAL 114·GS 91
- Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 112·GS 91
- Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 112·GS 90
- Q4·2:46
Kobe Bufkin personal foul
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·2:46
Malevy Leons offensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·2:46
Seth Curry misses 22-foot jumper
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:03
Seth Curry defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:05
Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:19
Drew Timme defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:21
Malevy Leons misses driving floating jump shot
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Drew Timme enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.
·
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Adou Thiero enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Rui Hachimura personal foul
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:41
Charles Bassey defensive rebound
LAL 112·GS 89
- Q4·3:42
Nick Smith Jr. misses 31-foot three point jumper
LAL 112·GS 89
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
GS
Home
49-80
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-81
61
FG %
51
16-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-30
5-8
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-12
37
Assists
24
17
Turnovers
19
Betting line
GS -1.5·O/U 222.5·LAL -102/GS -118
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 7 players in cohort
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Luke KennardLAL · GTS%68.998- LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.994
Rui HachimuraLAL · FCONT6.590
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- LeBron JamesLAL22.2± 5.8high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Luka DoncicLAL7.1± 2.1high
- LeBron JamesLAL6.4± 3.7high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
Blocks
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Charles BasseyGS0.9± 1.1medium
- Deandre AytonLAL0.9± 0.6high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
GS
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
114.8
PPG
114.9
114.5
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.8
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1