NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6NY

BOS

54-26

106112

52-28

NBAThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesNY wins series 3-1VegasNY -3.5

BOS · top performer

Baylor Scheierman

G · #55

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 23pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	40	24	7-22	2-10	8-10	-16	13	8
S. HauserF · #30	31	6	2-7	2-6	—	+1	2	3
N. QuetaC · #88	24	10	4-6	—	2-2	-7	10	2
D. WhiteG · #9	38	8	2-10	0-6	4-4	-3	3	1
J. WalshG · #27	17	5	2-4	1-2	—	-9	2	1
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	24	10	4-7	2-4	—	+1	5	2
P. PritchardG · #11	36	23	10-20	3-8	—	+4	3	6
B. ScheiermanG · #55	30	20	7-8	6-7	—	-1	4	0
Team		106	38-84	16-43	14-16		42	23
DNP: A. Williams, L. Garza, R. Harper Jr., J. Tonje, M. Shulga, H. Gonzalez

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	36	13	4-10	3-7	2-2	+3	4	1
K. TownsC · #32	30	16	6-12	1-4	3-3	+5	12	4
J. HartG · #3	35	26	10-15	5-7	1-2	+6	1	3
M. BridgesG · #25	31	10	4-4	2-2	—	+17	2	6
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	25	10-19	2-7	3-4	+8	1	10
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	19	7	3-4	—	1-2	-2	7	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	14	8	4-7	0-1	—	+4	1	2
L. ShametG · #44	19	3	1-4	1-3	—	-9	1	1
M. McBrideG · #2	19	4	1-5	1-4	1-2	-2	1	2
Team		112	43-80	15-35	11-15		30	29
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Alvarado, K. McCullar Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

Home

38-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-80

FG %

16-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-35

14-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY wins series 3-1

Oct 24

BOS95@

NY105

Dec 3

NY117@

BOS123

Feb 8

NY111@

BOS89

Apr 9

BOS106@

NY112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

NY-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -3.5↗SpreadBet NY -3.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat BOS 112-106. J. Brunson paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 10 AST. NY outscored the other side 31-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 42

Bench(3)

53 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 42

NYstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 20 REB · 24 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 8:48 · 31-35

+23pp→ 64% WP

Neemias Queta · enters the game for Nikola Vucevic

BOS4th Quarter · 3:36 · 101-99

+15pp→ 63% WP

Baylor Scheierman · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 2:19 · 104-103

+16pp→ 55% WP

Baylor Scheierman · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Neemias Queta assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	29	24	30	23	106
NY	26	28	27	31	112

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · NY won 2

Pritchard 11

Brunson 10

Hauser 6

Queta 18

Tatum 8

Hart 8

Scheierman 11

Hart 15

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

45%

38-84

54%

43-80

37%

16-43

3PT

43%

15-35

88%

14-16

73%

11-15

Play-by-play · 403 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 106·NY 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 106·NY 112
Q4·0.5
Knicks defensive team rebound
BOS 106·NY 112
Q4·2.0
Payton Pritchard misses 31-foot three point jumper
BOS 106·NY 112
+2pp
Q4·15.2
Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 106·NY 112
+11pp
Q4·35.6
Nikola Vucevic makes two point shot
BOS 106·NY 109
−4pp
Q4·35.6
Nikola Vucevic offensive rebound
BOS 104·NY 109
−3pp
Q4·38.7
Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 104·NY 109
+4pp
Q4·42.4
Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
BOS 104·NY 109
Q4·42.4
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 104·NY 109
Q4·42.9
Josh Hart makes 26-foot three pointer (Mikal Bridges assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 104·NY 109
+15pp
Q4·1:04
Mikal Bridges defensive rebound
BOS 104·NY 106
+3pp
Q4·1:07
Derrick White misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 104·NY 106
+8pp
Q4·1:26
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 104·NY 106
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 104·NY 105
Q4·1:26
Knicks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 104·NY 105
−7pp
Q4·1:26
Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 104·NY 105
−6pp
Q4·1:26
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 104·NY 105
Q4·1:26
Neemias Queta shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 104·NY 105
+15pp
Q4·1:32
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
BOS 104·NY 105
+3pp
Q4·1:35
Jayson Tatum misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
BOS 104·NY 105
+8pp
Q4·1:51
Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 104·NY 105
+8pp
Q4·2:19
Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Neemias Queta assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 104·NY 103
−16pp
Q4·2:44
Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
BOS 101·NY 103
+8pp
Q4·3:03
Jayson Tatum out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
BOS 101·NY 101
+9pp
Q4·3:22
Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BOS 101·NY 101
−7pp
Q4·3:22
Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 101·NY 100
+1pp
Q4·3:22
Neemias Queta shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 101·NY 99
+12pp
Q4·3:36
Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 101·NY 99
−15pp
Q4·3:47
Jayson Tatum defensive rebound
BOS 98·NY 99
−2pp

Betting line

NY -3.5·O/U 210.5·BOS +136/NY -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Boston Celtics, 112–106.

NY -3.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 210.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Jaylen BrownBOS
26.6± 6.3high
Jayson TatumBOS
22.9± 3.5high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high

Blocks

Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Neemias QuetaBOS
1.0± 0.8high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR