PHI
43-37
HOU
51-29
Recap · NBA
ouston Rockets held off Philadelphia 76ers, 113–102.
HOU -6.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHI · top performer
VJ Edgecombe
G · #77
20
Pts
6
Reb
8
Ast
HOU · top performer
Kevin Durant
F · #7
29
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 3-4 | -15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 15 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | -9 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 16 | 7-10 | 2-4 | — | -21 | 4 | 1 | |
| 33 | 24 | 9-20 | 5-10 | 1-1 | -18 | 3 | 5 | |
| 40 | 20 | 7-17 | 3-8 | 3-6 | -6 | 6 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | — | +12 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 2 | 1-5 | — | — | +1 | 8 | 0 | |
| 30 | 5 | 2-2 | — | 1-4 | +7 | 15 | 5 | |
| 26 | 20 | 7-16 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 102 | 38-85 | 11-32 | 15-23 | 47 | 21 | ||
| DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, K. Lowry, T. Martin | ||||||||
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, K. Lowry, T. Martin
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 29 | 10-18 | 3-6 | 6-8 | +17 | 7 | 5 | |
| 34 | 19 | 7-15 | 1-7 | 4-6 | +8 | 5 | 0 | |
| 33 | 8 | 4-14 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 12 | 4 | |
| 21 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-2 | — | +4 | 11 | 2 | |
| 42 | 19 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 5-8 | +8 | 5 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 15 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | -4 | 8 | 2 | |
| 12 | 1 | 0-2 | — | 1-2 | +11 | 2 | 2 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | — | +6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-5 | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 113 | 42-93 | 11-32 | 18-26 | 53 | 21 | ||
| DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Tate, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton | ||||||||
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Tate, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
45
21
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 1-1
HOU122@PHI128PHI102@HOU113todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
HOU -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+21032%HOU-25872%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 4th Quarter · 1:15
PHIV. Edgecombe
GGame leader · 40 min
20 PTS · 6 REB · 8 AST
HOUK. Durant
FGame leader · 38 min
29 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
HOU beat PHI 113-102. K. Durant paced them with 29 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
HOU vs PHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitPHIstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 45
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 28 REB · 6 AST
GS 31
HOUstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 40 REB · 15 AST
GS 58
Bench(4)
29 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 31
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 26 | 30 | 17 | 29 | 102 |
| HOU | 35 | 38 | 23 | 17 | 113 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · HOU won 3
Q1
Jr. 12
Eason 9
Q2
Maxey 15
Durant 10
Q3
Edgecombe 6
Durant 6
Q4
Grimes 12
Durant 6
Shooting comparison
45%
38-85
FG
45%
42-93
34%
11-32
3PT
34%
11-32
65%
15-23
FT
69%
18-26
Play-by-play · 493 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 102·HOU 113
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 102·HOU 113
- Q4·4.2
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 113
- Q4·6.5
Tyrese Maxey misses 31-foot three point jumper
PHI 102·HOU 113
- Q4·14.3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 2-foot running dunk (Tari Eason assists)
·
PHI 102·HOU 113
- Q4·20.8
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·21.2
Quentin Grimes misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·32.4
Quentin Grimes defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·32.4
Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·32.4
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·32.4
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 102·HOU 111
- Q4·32.4
Tyrese Maxey personal take foul
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·36.4
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·36.4
VJ Edgecombe misses running pullup jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+0.9pp
- Q4·40.3
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·41.1
Alperen Sengun misses 6-foot two point shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
−0.5pp
- Q4·50.1
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·50.1
Rockets defensive team rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·50.7
Justin Edwards misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+1pp
- Q4·1:00
Kevin Durant out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHI 102·HOU 110
−1pp
- Q4·1:06
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·1:06
Quentin Grimes misses two point shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+1pp
- Q4·1:15
Justin Edwards enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·1:15
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·1:15
76ers Full timeout
PHI 102·HOU 110
- Q4·1:15
Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
+5pp
- Q4·1:36
VJ Edgecombe makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 107
−2pp
- Q4·1:51
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 100·HOU 107
- Q4·1:51
Kevin Durant misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 100·HOU 107
−2pp
- Q4·1:51
Rockets offensive team rebound
PHI 100·HOU 107
−1pp
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
38-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-93
45
FG %
45
11-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-32
15-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-26
21
Assists
21
16
Turnovers
15
Betting line
HOU -6.5·O/U 226.5·PHI +210/HOU -258
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · GTOUCHES94.599
Tari EasonHOU · FDEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · GTOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · CCONT8.295
Paul GeorgePHI · FDEFL3.595
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Kevin DurantHOU25.3± 4.5high
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Alperen SengunHOU9.4± 3.5high
- Steven AdamsHOU8.6± 2.2high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Kevin DurantHOU5.8± 2.2high
- Amen ThompsonHOU5.7± 2.0high
Blocks
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Alperen SengunHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- Amen ThompsonHOU1.9± 1.3high
- Tari EasonHOU1.8± 1.8high
- Reed SheppardHOU1.6± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
PHI
league avg
HOU
52.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶53.7%
46.0%
FG%
47.0
▶47.4%
114.3
PPG
114.9
114.1
24.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.1
12.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3