NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11HOU

PHI

43-37

102113

HOU

51-29

NBAThu, Apr 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -6.5

PHI · top performer

VJ Edgecombe

G · #77

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 5pp · 4th Quarter · 1:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	24	7	2-8	0-5	3-4	-15	4	1
A. BonaC · #30	15	2	0-1	—	2-2	-9	2	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	27	16	7-10	2-4	—	-21	4	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	33	24	9-20	5-10	1-1	-18	3	5
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	20	7-17	3-8	3-6	-6	6	8
Bench
J. WalkerF · #33	4	2	1-1	—	—	-6	1	1
J. EdwardsF · #11	13	4	2-5	0-1	—	+12	2	0
D. BarlowF · #25	27	2	1-5	—	—	+1	8	0
A. DrummondC · #1	30	5	2-2	—	1-4	+7	15	5
Q. GrimesG · #5	26	20	7-16	1-4	5-6	0	2	0
Team		102	38-85	11-32	15-23		47	21
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, K. Lowry, T. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	29	10-18	3-6	6-8	+17	7	5
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	34	19	7-15	1-7	4-6	+8	5	0
A. SengunC · #28	33	8	4-14	0-1	—	+4	12	4
J. OkogieG · #20	21	9	4-8	1-2	—	+4	11	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	19	7-14	0-2	5-8	+8	5	4
Bench
T. EasonF · #17	27	15	5-10	3-6	2-2	-4	8	2
C. CapelaC · #30	12	1	0-2	—	1-2	+11	2	2
A. HolidayG · #0	14	7	3-5	1-3	—	+6	3	1
R. SheppardG · #15	19	6	2-7	2-5	—	+1	0	1
Team		113	42-93	11-32	18-26		53	21
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Tate, I. Crawford, J. Davison, T. Newton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

38-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-93

FG %

11-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

15-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 23

HOU122@

PHI128

Apr 10

PHI102@

HOU113today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+21032%

HOU-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat PHI 113-102. K. Durant paced them with 29 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 28 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

HOUstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 40 REB · 15 AST

GS 58

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	26	30	17	29	102
HOU	35	38	23	17	113

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · HOU won 3

Jr. 12

Eason 9

Maxey 15

Durant 10

Edgecombe 6

Durant 6

Grimes 12

Durant 6

PHI

HOU

Shooting comparison

PHI

HOU

45%

38-85

45%

42-93

34%

11-32

3PT

34%

11-32

65%

15-23

69%

18-26

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 102·HOU 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 102·HOU 113
Q4·4.2
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 113
Q4·6.5
Tyrese Maxey misses 31-foot three point jumper
PHI 102·HOU 113
Q4·14.3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 2-foot running dunk (Tari Eason assists)
·
PHI 102·HOU 113
Q4·20.8
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·21.2
Quentin Grimes misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·32.4
Quentin Grimes defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·32.4
Amen Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·32.4
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·32.4
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 102·HOU 111
Q4·32.4
Tyrese Maxey personal take foul
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·36.4
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·36.4
VJ Edgecombe misses running pullup jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+0.9pp
Q4·40.3
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·41.1
Alperen Sengun misses 6-foot two point shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
−0.5pp
Q4·50.1
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·50.1
Rockets defensive team rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·50.7
Justin Edwards misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+1pp
Q4·1:00
Kevin Durant out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHI 102·HOU 110
−1pp
Q4·1:06
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·1:06
Quentin Grimes misses two point shot
PHI 102·HOU 110
+1pp
Q4·1:15
Justin Edwards enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·1:15
Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·1:15
76ers Full timeout
PHI 102·HOU 110
Q4·1:15
Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
PHI 102·HOU 110
+5pp
Q4·1:36
VJ Edgecombe makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 102·HOU 107
−2pp
Q4·1:51
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 100·HOU 107
Q4·1:51
Kevin Durant misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 100·HOU 107
−2pp
Q4·1:51
Rockets offensive team rebound
PHI 100·HOU 107
−1pp

Betting line

HOU -6.5·O/U 226.5·PHI +210/HOU -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Philadelphia 76ers, 113–102.

HOU -6.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Kevin DurantHOU · F
TOUCHES6891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

LeBron JamesPHI
7.2± 2.6high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

HOU

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.1

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.1

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Team pages

Philadelphia 76ersHouston Rockets

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR