MIA
41-39
TOR
45-35
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
24
Pts
11
Reb
8
Ast
TOR · top performer
Brandon Ingram
F · #3
38
Pts
7
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 14pp · 1st Quarter · 8:16
NBA · Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | — | +6 | 1 | 2 | |
| 37 | 24 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 4-5 | -10 | 11 | 8 | |
| 37 | 15 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 1-4 | -17 | 3 | 11 | |
| 28 | 15 | 6-12 | 3-5 | — | -2 | 4 | 4 | |
| 32 | 10 | 4-10 | 2-5 | — | -21 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +11 | 1 | 0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | +11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 24 | 15 | 6-9 | 3-5 | — | -31 | 2 | 4 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 11 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | — | -19 | 4 | 1 | |
| 17 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 3-5 | -23 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | +11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +11 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 46-82 | 14-35 | 8-14 | 34 | 35 | ||
| DNP: S. Fontecchio | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 38 | 13-23 | 2-3 | 10-11 | +13 | 7 | 7 | |
| 35 | 22 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 9-10 | +14 | 6 | 3 | |
| 25 | 13 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3-4 | +4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 17 | 6 | 3-4 | — | — | +4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-10 | 3-7 | — | +12 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-4 | — | +26 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 17 | 7-7 | — | 3-3 | +21 | 8 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | — | +13 | 1 | 3 | |
| 25 | 7 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +18 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 128 | 44-86 | 13-30 | 27-34 | 40 | 24 | ||
| DNP: G. Temple | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
56
FG %
51
35
Ast
24
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
46-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-86
56
FG %
51
14-35
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-30
8-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
27-34
35
Assists
24
13
Turnovers
4
Season series
TOR wins series 4-0
TOR106@MIA96TOR112@MIA91MIA95@TOR121MIA114@TOR128todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
236.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA+14241%TOR-17063%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
236.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
TOR beat MIA 128-114. B. Ingram led the way with 38 points and 7 assists. TOR outscored the other side 37-24 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 23 REB · 27 AST
GS 59
Bench(9)
45 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
GS 31
TORstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST
GS 80
Bench(9)
38 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST
GS 36
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactScottie Barnes · makes free throw 1 of 2
Tyler Herro · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)
Andrew Wiggins · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 26 | 24 | 40 | 24 | 114 |
| TOR | 32 | 37 | 33 | 26 | 128 |
Period scoring
MIA won 1 · TOR won 3
Q1
Herro 7
Ingram 10
Q2
Adebayo 7
Ingram 13
Q3
Adebayo 10
Ingram 13
Q4
Keels 6
Barnes 5
Shooting comparison
56%
46-82
FG
51%
44-86
40%
14-35
3PT
43%
13-30
57%
8-14
FT
79%
27-34
Play-by-play · 471 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 114·TOR 128
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 114·TOR 128
- Q4·22.3
Jahmir Young makes 14-foot two point shot
MIA 114·TOR 128
- Q4·32.5
Heat defensive team rebound
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·33.6
A.J. Lawson misses free throw 2 of 2
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·33.6
Raptors offensive team rebound
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·33.6
A.J. Lawson misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·33.6
Vladislav Goldin loose ball foul
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·33.6
Vladislav Goldin lost ball turnover
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·42.4
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·45.1
A.J. Lawson misses layup
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·48.3
Jamison Battle offensive rebound
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·50.3
Jamison Battle misses layup
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·58.8
Myron Gardner makes running dunk
MIA 112·TOR 128
- Q4·1:02
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·1:05
Alijah Martin misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·1:22
A.J. Lawson defensive rebound
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·1:26
Trevor Keels misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·1:48
Jonathan Mogbo out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·2:01
Keshad Johnson makes dunk (Vladislav Goldin assists)
·
MIA 110·TOR 128
- Q4·2:02
Vladislav Goldin offensive rebound
MIA 108·TOR 128
- Q4·2:06
Trevor Keels misses running pullup jump shot
MIA 108·TOR 128
- Q4·2:10
Vladislav Goldin defensive rebound
MIA 108·TOR 128
- Q4·2:12
A.J. Lawson misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 108·TOR 128
- Q4·2:37
Trevor Keels makes 27-foot three pointer (Keshad Johnson assists)
·
MIA 108·TOR 128
- Q4·2:48
Jamison Battle makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 105·TOR 128
- Q4·2:48
Raptors offensive team rebound
MIA 105·TOR 127
- Q4·2:48
Jamison Battle misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 105·TOR 127
- Q4·2:48
Jahmir Young shooting foul
MIA 105·TOR 127
- Q4·3:02
Trevor Keels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jahmir Young assists)
·
MIA 105·TOR 127
Betting line
TOR -4.5·O/U 236.5·MIA +142/TOR -170
Recap · NBA
oronto Raptors held off Miami Heat, 128–114.
TOR -4.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 7 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · FDEFL3.193- Brandon IngramTOR · FUSG%26.890
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
- Scottie BarnesTOR6.7± 3.3high
Assists
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
- Collin Murray-BoylesTOR1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
- Ja'Kobe WalterTOR1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
TOR
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.5%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
▶48.1%
120.9
PPG
114.9
114.3
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
29.2
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.0