NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+29IND

IND

19-61

12394

BKN

20-60

NBAThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1VegasIND -3.5

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 123–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

IND -3.5 cashed (won by 29). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

Obi Toppin

F · #1

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

E.J. Liddell

F · #9

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SlawsonF · #18	29	12	5-10	1-4	1-2	+10	7	5
J. WalkerF · #5	30	14	5-15	1-5	3-5	+6	9	8
M. PotterC · #11	23	18	8-15	1-4	1-3	+12	14	2
E. ThompsonG · #55	37	15	6-12	3-7	—	+29	7	6
Q. JacksonG · #29	26	12	5-11	0-1	2-2	+20	6	7
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	19	26	11-14	0-1	4-4	+24	9	3
J. HuffC · #32	25	14	6-6	—	2-2	+17	7	3
K. JonesG · #7	22	4	2-7	0-2	—	+9	3	6
T. PeterG · #4	30	8	3-8	2-7	—	+18	4	3
Team		123	51-98	8-31	13-18		66	43
DNP: K. Brown, B. Sheppard

DNP: K. Brown, B. Sheppard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. ScottF · #13	40	11	5-16	0-4	1-1	-18	8	1
E.J. LiddellF · #9	37	26	10-16	3-6	3-4	-16	10	1
M. SmithG · #18	40	11	4-13	0-6	3-3	-22	8	6
T. EtienneG · #10	39	14	5-17	3-7	1-3	-34	5	4
B. SarafG · #77	28	19	8-16	0-4	3-3	-11	5	6
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	37	11	4-11	2-7	1-3	-27	5	2
D. PowellG · #4	20	2	1-7	0-4	0-2	-17	2	0
Team		94	37-96	8-38	12-19		43	20
DNP: Z. Williams, D. Wolf, C. Johnson, N. Claxton, O. Agbaji

DNP: Z. Williams, D. Wolf, C. Johnson, N. Claxton, O. Agbaji

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

IND wins series 2-1

Nov 6

BKN112@

IND103

Feb 12

IND115@

BKN110

Apr 9

IND123@

BKN94today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-16262%

BKN+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -3.5↗SpreadBet IND -3.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 7:59

IND

O. Toppin

Game leader · 19 min

26 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

BKN

E.J. Liddell

Game leader · 37 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

IND beat BKN 123-94. O. Toppin paced them with 26 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 31-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 43 REB · 28 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

52 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

BKNstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 36 REB · 18 AST

GS 55

Bench(2)

13 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 0

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	31	32	35	25	123
BKN	14	23	35	22	94

Period scoring

IND won 3 · BKN won 0

Toppin 12

Liddell 6

Walker 6

Smith 19

Toppin 8

Saraf 25

Potter 8

Liddell 11

IND

BKN

Shooting comparison

IND

BKN

52%

51-98

39%

37-96

26%

8-31

3PT

21%

8-38

72%

13-18

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·16.0
shot clock turnover
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·37.7
Taelon Peter defensive rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·40.3
Tyson Etienne misses 20-foot jumper
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·51.1
Taelon Peter out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·57.2
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·59.2
Malachi Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:09
Tyson Etienne defensive rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:09
Micah Potter misses tip shot
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:09
Micah Potter offensive rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:14
Ethan Thompson misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:28
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:31
Tyson Etienne misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:31
Nets offensive team rebound
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:31
Tyson Etienne misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:31
Ethan Thompson personal foul
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·1:50
Micah Potter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 123·BKN 94
Q4·2:04
Trevon Scott makes 2-foot dunk (Malachi Smith assists)
·
IND 120·BKN 94
Q4·2:20
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 120·BKN 92
Q4·2:20
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:20
Micah Potter misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:20
Pacers Full timeout
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:20
E.J. Liddell shooting foul
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:24
Ethan Thompson defensive rebound
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:27
Malachi Smith misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:43
Tyson Etienne defensive rebound
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:47
Jalen Slawson misses 26-foot three point jumper
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:56
Taelon Peter offensive rebound
IND 119·BKN 92
Q4·2:56
Kam Jones misses running pullup jump shot
IND 119·BKN 92

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

51-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-96

FG %

8-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-38

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

IND -3.5·O/U 224.5·IND -162/BKN +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
16.8± 8.1high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high
Day'Ron SharpeBKN
6.5± 2.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Ziaire WilliamsBKN
1.7± 1.6high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

BKN

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

45.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

112.4

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR