Recent form
8-2
CLE +2.4 vs TOR +0.3 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
TOR
TOR
68-70
PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
69-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Dylan Cease
SP · #84
9-5
W-L
2.33
ERA
1.05
WHIP
217
K
150.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEAW(9-5)6.0 IP1 ER8 K
@NYYW(8-5)6.2 IP1 ER8 K
vsNYY-6.1 IP2 ER10 K
Home starter
Joey Cantillo
SP · #54
9-7
W-L
3.70
ERA
1.45
WHIP
145
K
136.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAA-6.0 IP2 ER1 K
@COL-4.2 IP1 ER5 K
vsSDW(9-7)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTOR leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs TOR.
CLE is 8-2 recently; TOR is 6-4.
61.5%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE8–2+2.4
- TOR6–4+0.3
Situational
- CLE3d rest
- TOR3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; TOR has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.3 vs season 8.5.
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Parker MessickCLE5.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Parker Messick · 5.5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
60.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.5%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.69 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 116 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2± 3.2high
- Parker MessickCLE5.5± 2.8high
Hits
- Steven KwanCLE1.4± 1.4high
- Brett BatemanTOR1.4± 1.2medium
- George SpringerTOR1.3± 1.3high
Total bases
- George SpringerTOR2.2± 2.4high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR1.9± 2.0high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.8± 2.6high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE0.8± 1.3high
- Jose RamirezCLE0.8± 1.9high
- Nathan LukesTOR0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Spencer ArrighettiTOR3.5± 2.9medium
- Michael LorenzenTOR3.3± 2.3high
- Max ScherzerTOR2.9± 3.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
CLE
.689
OPS
.718
.686
.307
OBP
.318
▶.315
3.97
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.07
3.94
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.73
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.26
8.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelEdge
Wed, Sep 2TOR
Blue Jays
72-99
vs61.5%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
89-74
TOR 38.5%win prob61.5% CLE
CLE 1530 · TOR 1478Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- PadresReds9/2 - 12:40 PM EDT
- BravesNationals9/2 - 1:05 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers9/2 - 2:35 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies9/2 - 3:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks9/2 - 3:40 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox9/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MetsRays9/2 - 6:40 PM EDT
- GiantsPirates9/2 - 6:40 PM EDT
- TigersTwins9/2 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsRoyals9/2 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs9/2 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros9/2 - 8:10 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels9/2 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CardinalsDodgers9/2 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
