Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CON

10-29

PregameSun, 8:30 PM EDTKFAA-TV, WNBA League Pass, NBC Sports BO

DAL

23-16

ATS/DAL -14.5O/U/165.5ML/DAL-1100

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

5-5

DAL +1.8 vs CON -12.2 margin

DAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

DAL 5 rest vs CON 2

DAL has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+213.5

DAL Elo vs CON Elo

DAL owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CON uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 308/30 - 8:30 PM EDTSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -14.5

Preview · WNBA

onnecticut Sun visit Dallas Wings Sunday at 8/30 - 8:30 PM EDT. DAL arrives on a 3-game win streak (4-3 in their last 7).

Vegas opened DAL as a 14.5-point favorite with the total at 165.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 92% break-even, CON the inverse.

For bettors: the DAL side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 165.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

FG %

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jul 3

DAL86@

CON83

Aug 2

CON63@

DAL83

Aug 31

CON@

DALtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -14.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+70013%

DAL-110092%

200· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -14.5↗SpreadBet DAL -14.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

+1.0 since open

Total

165.5

0.0 since open

Scouting report

CON @ DAL

8/30 - 8:30 PM EDT

StorylineDAL on a 3-game roll.

Rest going in

CONStandard

2 days

last game Aug 28

DALUnknown

—

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

DAL -14.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

165.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

DAL -1100

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CONmetricDAL

10-29

Record

23-16

Conf rank

-8.3

Pt diff

+3.1

Streak

3-7

Last 10

5-5

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

DAL -14.5·O/U 165.5·CON +700/DAL -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

DAL vs CON.

DAL enters on a 3-game win streak; CON is 3-7 over its last 10.

90.5%

model · DAL win prob

Recent form

DAL5–5+1.8
CON3–7-12.2

Situational

DAL5d rest
CON2d rest
+3.0d differential

DAL has 3 more rest days. DAL has 0 straight road games; CON has 1.

Model angle

+2.5ppon DAL

DAL's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.0pp
▲Line steam+0.7pp
▼Model confidence-0.6pp

Players to watch

Paige BueckersDAL
20.2points · ±7.5
Paige Bueckers · 20.2 pts · last-10 20.2 vs season 20.2.
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
15.3points · ±8.3
Arike Ogunbowale · 15.3 pts · last-10 15.4 vs season 15.2.
Brittney GrinerCON
13.9points · ±7.0
Brittney Griner · 13.9 pts · last-10 14.5 vs season 13.1.

Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3

DAL is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-08-28CON @ DAL101–95
2026-07-02DAL @ CON86–83
2026-08-02CON @ DAL63–83

Line move

open -675→-900toward DAL

The market has moved 2.9pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

90.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
83.6%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
81.4%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
84.8%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like DAL.

DAL's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.5

pp edge · DAL

5.0u · large

on DAL

96.2%

±4.8pp band

5u large — +4.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+8.2pp

+5.7pp post-cal

Kelly

54.4%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.09

+4.5pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.5pp · DAL over CON

▲
Venue split70% conf
DAL's venue form is 50pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.0pp
▲
Line steam75% conf
The market moved 2.6pp toward DAL since open.
+0.7pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
DAL sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.6pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
DAL is 3-2 over its last 5; CON is 1-4.
+0.6pp
▲
Rest advantage65% conf
DAL has 5 days rest; CON has 2.
+0.6pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
DAL has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.1pp

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · DAL · DraftKings

CON

no live price

DAL

★ best

-1050DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 87.6%

Book	CON	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+675	-1050★	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
20.2± 7.5high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
15.3± 8.3high
Brittney GrinerCON
13.9± 7.0high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
9.5± 3.8high
Brittney GrinerCON
6.4± 2.7high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
5.9± 4.4high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
5.8± 3.0high
Leila LacanCON
4.7± 2.4high
Jessica ShepardDAL
4.2± 2.7high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
2.0± 2.2high
Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 0.9high
Kennedy BurkeCON
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Kennedy BurkeCON
1.6± 1.6high
Leila LacanCON
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings

DAL vs CON.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like DAL.

Where to bet this game.

DAL vs CON.