Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
CON
3-15
DAL
11-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Dallas Wings Sunday at 8/30 - 8:00 PM EDT. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
42
FG %
46
Season series
Series starts 7/2
DAL@CONupcomingCON@DALupcomingCON@DALtodayScouting report
CON @ DAL
Tale of the tape
3-15
Record
11-6
#7
Conf rank
#3
-8.4
Pt diff
+4.5
W1
Streak
W2
2-8
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 15 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL19.4± 7.9medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL15.0± 5.2medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL14.2± 11.4medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.4± 4.6medium
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.8± 5.3medium
- Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON5.4± 5.7medium
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.3± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.3± 3.5medium
- Leila LacanCON4.4± 2.9low
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 1.7low
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.6medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.8± 1.5low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.7± 1.8medium
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
DAL
42.6%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
26.0%
3PT %
33.5
▶34.4%
79.2
PPG
85.9
▶87.9
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.7
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.5