Washington Mystics at Portland Fire
WSH
8-7
POR
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Portland Fire Sunday at 8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT. WSH arrives on a 3-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
POR
Home
45
FG %
45
Season series
Series starts 6/28
POR@WSHupcomingPOR@WSHupcomingWSH@PORtodayScouting report
WSH @ POR
Tale of the tape
8-7
Record
8-9
#4
Conf rank
#6
-3.2
Pt diff
-5.9
W3
Streak
W1
6-4
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Sonia CitronWSH16.6± 6.2medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH15.0± 9.3low
- Carla LeitePOR13.6± 5.7medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 3.7low
- Kiki IriafenWSH7.7± 4.9low
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.7medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.8± 3.0medium
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Shakira AustinWSH1.2± 1.2low
- Megan GustafsonPOR0.6± 0.9medium
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.4± 1.2medium
- Sonia CitronWSH1.4± 1.6medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.3± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
POR
45.1%
FG%
44.6
44.6%
30.7%
3PT %
33.3
▶34.1%
81.6
PPG
85.9
82.2
18.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.8
15.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8