Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

WSH

21-15

PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTFox 12 Plus, WNBA League Pass, MNMT

POR

15-21

ATS/WSH -4.5O/U/166.5ML/WSH-185

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

WSH +3.7 vs POR -1.9 margin

WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+54.4

POR Elo vs WSH Elo

WSH owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing POR uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 238/23 - 7:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -4.5

Preview · WNBA

ashington Mystics visit Portland Fire Sunday at 8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT. WSH is 5-3 in their last 8. POR is 4-3 in their last 7.

Vegas opened WSH as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 166.5. POR's moneyline implies a 39% break-even, WSH the inverse.

For bettors: the WSH side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 166.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

POR

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 28

POR123@

WSH124

Jul 16

POR75@

WSH56

Aug 23

WSH@

PORtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.5h

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

WSH-18565%

POR+15439%

18· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -4.5↗SpreadBet WSH -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

166.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

WSH @ POR

8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

WSHStandard

1 day

last game Aug 21

PORStandard

1 day

last game Aug 21

Model edge vs market

Market aligned

Spread

Market

WSH -4.5

Model

WSH -4.4

Edge

-0.1 pts

Total

Market

166.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

WSH -185

Model

WSH

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

WSHmetricPOR

21-15

Record

15-21

Conf rank

-0.7

Pt diff

-4.4

Streak

7-3

Last 10

4-6

61.3

Power score

57.0

Power rank

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

WSH -4.5·O/U 166.5·WSH -185/POR +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

POR vs WSH.

POR is 4-6 recently; WSH is 7-3.

47.2%

model · POR win prob

Recent form

POR4–6-1.9
WSH7–3+3.7

Situational

POR2d rest
WSH2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. POR has 3 straight road games; WSH has 0.

Model angle

+9.4ppon POR

POR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Line steam-1.2pp

Players to watch

Shakira AustinWSH
19.0points · ±5.8
Shakira Austin · 19 pts · last-10 20.6 vs season 16.6.
Sonia CitronWSH
16.3points · ±3.8
Sonia Citron · 16.3 pts · last-10 16.4 vs season 16.3.
Bridget CarletonPOR
16.1points · ±6.0
Bridget Carleton · 16.1 pts · last-10 17.2 vs season 14.4.

Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2

POR is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-28POR @ WSH123–124
2026-07-16POR @ WSH75–56

Line move

open +136→+154toward WSH

The market has moved 3pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
56.7%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
57.2%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like POR.

POR's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

+9.4

pp edge · POR

-2.91

CLV pp · steam

2.5u · large

on POR

45.5%

±5.9pp band

2.53u large — +6.1pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.7pp

-1.7pp post-cal

Kelly

10.1%

2.5% sized

Decimal

2.54

+6.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.4pp · POR over WSH

▲
Model confidence90% conf
POR clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam77% conf
The market moved 2.9pp away from POR since open.
-1.2pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.4pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

POR

★ best

+154DraftKings

edge +9.4pp · implied 37.8%

Book	WSH	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-185	+154★	+9.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Shakira AustinWSH
19.0± 5.8high
Sonia CitronWSH
16.3± 3.8high
Bridget CarletonPOR
16.1± 6.0high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.6± 2.1high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.3± 2.7high
Bridget CarletonPOR
5.5± 3.0high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.7± 3.4high
Sonia CitronWSH
4.6± 2.0high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.6± 1.4low

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.2± 1.4high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.1± 1.0high
Lauren BettsWSH
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.2± 0.9high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.1± 0.7high
Sonia CitronWSH
1.0± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Washington Mystics at Portland Fire

POR vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like POR.

Where to bet this game.

POR vs WSH.