Recent form
6-4
IND +3.0 vs CHI -1.2 margin
IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky
IND
IND
24-14
PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTNBC, Peacock
CHI
CHI
15-22
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Chicago Sky Sunday at 8/23 - 7:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-4 in their last 9. CHI arrives on a 3-game win streak (4-4 in their last 8).
Vegas opened IND as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 186.5. CHI's moneyline implies a 42% break-even, IND the inverse. IND is on a back-to-back.
For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 186.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
49
FG %
44
Season series
IND leads series 2-0
Jun 11CHI106@IND114
CHI106@IND114Aug 8IND90@CHI86
IND90@CHI86Aug 23IND@CHItoday
IND@CHItodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
1.0pt· 6.5h
Total
186.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
IND-16662%CHI+14042%4· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
-2.0 since open
Total
186.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
IND @ CHI
StorylineCHI on a 3-game roll.
Rest going in
CHI +1 day
INDB2B
0 days
last game Aug 22
CHIStandard
1 day
last game Aug 21
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
IND -4.5
Model
IND -8.9
Edge
+4.4 pts
Total
Market
186.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
IND -166
Model
IND
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
INDmetricCHI
24-14
Record
15-22
#2
Conf rank
#5
+5.2
Pt diff
-1.9
L2
Streak
W3
6-4
Last 10
6-4
55.7
Power score
46.8
#7
Power rank
#9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
IND -4.5·O/U 186.5·IND -166/CHI +140
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
CHI vs IND.
CHI enters on a 3-game win streak; IND is 6-4 over its last 10.
24.7%
model · CHI win prob
Recent form
- CHI6–4-1.2
- IND6–4+3.0
Situational
- CHI2d rest
- IND1d restB2B
- +1.0d differential
CHI has 1 more rest day. CHI has 0 straight road games; IND has 4.
Model angle
+15.3ppon IND
IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-1.1pp
- ▲Head to head+0.6pp
Players to watch
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.4points · ±5.4
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.4 pts · last-10 28 vs season 24.
- Caitlin ClarkIND21.7points · ±5.4
Caitlin Clark · 21.7 pts · last-10 22.3 vs season 20.9.
- Sydney TaylorCHI16.9points · ±6.9
Sydney Taylor · 16.9 pts · last-10 18.5 vs season 14.5.
Head-to-head · 0-5 · last 5
CHI is 0-5 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-27IND @ CHI93–78
- 2025-08-10CHI @ IND70–92
- 2025-09-05CHI @ IND77–97
- 2026-06-11CHI @ IND106–114
- 2026-08-08IND @ CHI90–86
Line move
open +145→+140toward CHI
The market has moved 0.9pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.9%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
32.8%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
35.0%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
37.8%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.06 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like IND.
IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag.
+15.3
pp edge · IND
-0.96
CLV pp
5.0u · large
on IND
84.9%
±6.5pp band
5u large — +22.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+24.9pp
+9.6pp post-cal
Kelly
59.8%
5.0% sized
Decimal
1.60
+22.5pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 15.3pp · IND over CHI
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
IND clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▼-1.1ppTravel burden58% conf
IND is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
- ▲+0.6ppHead to head48% conf
IND has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- ▼-0.4ppLine steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp away from IND since open.
- ▼-0.3ppVenue split72% conf
CHI's venue form trims IND's edge by 6.1pp.
- ▼-0.3ppRest advantage65% conf
CHI has the rest edge entering this game.
Open price
-175
Close price
-166
Open no-vig
60.9%
Close no-vig
60.0%
Market faded the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at CHI?
- The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+15.3pp
best edge · IND · DraftKings
IND
★ best-166DraftKings
edge +15.3pp · implied 60.0%
CHI
no live price
| Book | IND | CHI | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -166★ | +140 | +15.3 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CHI vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.4± 5.4high
- Caitlin ClarkIND21.7± 5.4high
- Sydney TaylorCHI16.9± 6.8high
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI9.4± 2.8high
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 3.1high
- Azura StevensCHI6.7± 1.9high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND8.6± 1.4high
- Natasha CloudCHI5.5± 2.2high
- Courtney VanderslootCHI5.3± 1.8high
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.1high
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.2± 0.9high
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.8± 1.7high
- Courtney VanderslootCHI1.3± 1.4high
- Natasha CloudCHI1.2± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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