Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics
TB
TB
70-46
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATH
ATH
46-71
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Freddy Peralta
SP · #51
5-9
W-L
5.37
ERA
1.52
WHIP
116
K
117.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@COL-3.2 IP7 ER3 K
vsLAD-4.0 IP2 ER3 K
@MILL(5-9)5.1 IP7 ER6 K
Home starter
Jacob Lopez
SP · #57
5-4
W-L
5.64
ERA
1.63
WHIP
70
K
75.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CIN-5.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsBOS-5.1 IP1 ER8 K
@MINW(5-4)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob84% / 16%
LeanAway · 34pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/10
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs TB.
ATH is 1-9 recently; TB is 8-2.
15.7%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH1–9-3.9
- TB8–2+0.4
Situational
- ATH2d rest
- TB2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATH has 5 straight road games; TB has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Drew RasmussenTB5.5strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.5 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.7.
- Griffin JaxTB5.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Griffin Jax · 5.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 3.4.
- J.T. GinnATH5.0strikeouts · ±1.6
J.T. Ginn · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
15.1%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
27.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
27.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
26.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATH vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.0low
- Drew RasmussenTB5.5± 3.1high
- Griffin JaxTB5.2± 2.3high
Hits
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.3± 1.1high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.2± 1.0high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 0.8high
Total bases
- Junior CamineroTB2.3± 2.7high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.8± 1.7high
- Nick FortesTB1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Jonathan ArandaTB0.7± 1.1high
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 0.9high
- Liam HicksTB0.6± 1.4high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.7± 3.4high
- Jack PerkinsATH3.1± 1.7high
- Gage JumpATH2.8± 3.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
ATH
.730
OPS
◀
.719
.716
.328
OBP
◀
.318
.318
4.44
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.32
3.70
Team ERA
◀
4.17
5.45
1.15
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.50
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One model★ Lock
Mon, Aug 10TB★
Rays
98-46
vs84.3%TB
ATH
Athletics
55-85
TB 84.3%win prob15.7% ATH
TB 1594 · ATH 1402Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
