Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 10, 2026

BOS

64-52

PregameMon, 7:07 PM EDTMLB.TV

TOR

56-62

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

9-1

BOS +3.8 vs TOR +0.5 margin

BOS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Sonny Gray

SP · #54

14-2

W-L

2.78

ERA

1.15

WHIP

106

119.2

Last 3 starts

vsCHWW(14-2)6.0 IP0 ER8 K

@ATHW(13-2)7.0 IP4 ER5 K

vsTORL(12-2)5.0 IP5 ER3 K

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob76% / 24%

LeanAway · 26pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesBOS wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

TOR vs BOS.

TOR is 7-3 recently; BOS is 9-1.

24.1%

model · TOR win prob

Recent form

TOR7–3+0.5
BOS9–1+3.8

Situational

TOR2d rest
BOS2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TOR has 6 straight road games; BOS has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp

Players to watch

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.8strikeouts · ±2.5
Ranger Suarez · 5.8 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.4.
Sonny GrayBOS
5.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.7 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.

Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3

TOR is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-24TOR @ BOS4–6
2026-07-25TOR @ BOS6–0
2026-07-26TOR @ BOS1–6

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

23.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
34.1%
P(TOR win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
34.1%
P(TOR win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
32.3%
P(TOR win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 2.6high
Payton TolleBOS
6.8± 3.5medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.8± 2.5high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.5± 0.8high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.2± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.4high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.4± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.9± 1.0high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.8± 0.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

TOR

.724

OPS

◀

.719

.681

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.48

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

3.51

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.01

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

The One model★ Lock

Mon, Aug 10

BOS★

Red Sox

74-66

vs75.9%BOS

TOR

Blue Jays

60-91

BOS 75.9%win prob24.1% TOR

BOS 1584 · TOR 1446Box score→

Team pages

Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

TOR vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league