Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 10, 2026

MIL

73-44

PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV

61-57

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Petco Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

SD +0.3 vs MIL -0.5 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Logan Henderson

SP · #43

6-1

W-L

2.70

ERA

0.90

WHIP

50.0

Last 3 starts

vsPITW(6-1)6.0 IP2 ER8 K

@SFW(5-1)5.2 IP0 ER7 K

vsNYMW(4-1)5.0 IP2 ER9 K

Home starter

Casey Mize

SP · #32

4-7

W-L

3.40

ERA

1.09

WHIP

90.0

Last 3 starts

@ARIL(4-7)3.1 IP8 ER1 K

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER3 K

@LAA-3.1 IP1 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob48% / 52%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SD vs MIL.

SD is 6-4 recently; MIL is 6-4.

52.3%

model · SD win prob

Recent form

SD6–4+0.3
MIL6–4-0.5

Situational

SD2d rest
MIL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SD has 0 straight road games; MIL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob Misiorowski · 9.4 K · last-10 9.5 vs season 9.3.
Dustin MayMIL
5.1strikeouts · ±2.6
Dustin May · 5.1 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.
Shane DrohanMIL
5.0strikeouts · ±2.1
Shane Drohan · 5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 4.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.2± 4.5medium
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
1.1± 0.9high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.1± 2.0high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 0.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.9high
Andrew VaughnMIL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
2.9± 2.8high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Dustin MayMIL
2.3± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.21

3.48

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.18

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

The One modelTossup

Mon, Aug 10

MIL

Brewers

77-58

vs52.3%SD

SD★

Padres

70-69

MIL 47.7%win prob52.3% SD

SD 1511 · MIL 1533Box score→

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

The matchup, end-to-end.

SD vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league