Recent form
4-6
KC -0.5 vs LAD -1.4 margin
KC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers
KC
KC
49-69
PregameMon, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
70-47
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Noah Cameron
SP · #65
6-8
W-L
4.37
ERA
1.29
WHIP
116
K
123.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINW(6-8)8.0 IP1 ER9 K
@MIN-8.0 IP0 ER7 K
@DET-7.0 IP0 ER8 K
Home starter
Tarik Skubal
SP · #29
7-6
W-L
2.81
ERA
0.92
WHIP
122
K
102.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHCL(7-6)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsBAL-6.2 IP3 ER6 K
vsKCW(7-5)7.1 IP1 ER12 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs KC.
LAD is 3-7 recently; KC is 4-6.
63.2%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD3–7-1.4
- KC4–6-0.5
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- KC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 5 straight road games; KC has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.1.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.4
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.8%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
63.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.85 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.8medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.1± 2.4high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- Shohei OhtaniLAD1.4± 1.0high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.3± 1.0high
- Andy PagesLAD1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.8± 3.0high
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.9± 1.6high
- Andy PagesLAD1.9± 1.8high
RBIs
- Luke MaileKC1.0± 1.6low
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.8± 1.3high
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.6± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
- Seth LugoKC2.9± 2.3high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
LAD
.711
OPS
.719
▶.768
.313
OBP
.318
▶.339
4.15
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.03
4.79
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.72
1.42
WHIP
1.30
▶1.16
7.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 10KC
Royals
61-77
vs63.2%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
85-61
KC 36.8%win prob63.2% LAD
LAD 1549 · KC 1478Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
