Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
PHI
PHI
62-56
PregameMon, 7:45 PM EDTMLB.TV, FS1
STL
STL
58-59
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Painter
SP · #24
1-8
W-L
6.48
ERA
1.57
WHIP
63
K
75.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSH-4.0 IP1 ER4 K
@BAL-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsMIAL(1-8)2.0 IP6 ER3 K
Home starter
Hunter Dobbins
SP · #40
2-2
W-L
3.60
ERA
1.30
WHIP
36
K
40.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYYL(2-2)6.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsCHC-5.1 IP4 ER4 K
@LAAW(2-1)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/10
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs PHI.
STL is 5-5 recently; PHI is 5-5.
52.3%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL5–5+0.2
- PHI5–5+1.2
Situational
- STL2d rest
- PHI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; PHI has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.3
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.4 K · last-10 6 vs season 7.
- Aaron NolaPHI5.3strikeouts · ±1.5
Aaron Nola · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.0%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
50.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.92 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Zack WheelerPHI7.5± 3.6medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.3high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.2± 1.2high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.2± 1.3high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI1.0± 0.9low
Total bases
- Bryce HarperPHI2.0± 1.5high
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.0± 3.6high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.7± 1.4low
- Bryce HarperPHI0.7± 0.8high
- Luis ArraezPHI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.6± 2.8medium
- Aaron NolaPHI3.1± 1.7high
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.9± 2.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
STL
.708
OPS
◀
.719
.694
.307
OBP
.318
▶.315
4.42
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.34
4.20
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.14
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.34
9.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelTossup
Mon, Aug 10PHI
Phillies
80-70
vs52.3%STL
STL★
Cardinals
70-64
PHI 47.7%win prob52.3% STL
STL 1492 · PHI 1515Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
