Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 10, 2026

COL

30-47

PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDT

ARI

39-37

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesCOL wins series 2-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.4low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.1± 1.8medium

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

TJ RumfieldCOL
2.6± 2.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
2.2± 1.6high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.8± 2.0low
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.3medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ARI

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.55

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.33

5.49

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.32

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.