Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 10, 2026

COL

46-71

PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

ARI

62-56

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

ARI +0.6 vs COL +0.3 margin

ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gabriel Hughes

SP · #43

0-3

W-L

4.25

ERA

1.18

WHIP

29.2

Last 3 starts

vsTB-5.1 IP5 ER7 K

@SDL(0-3)5.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsWSHL(0-2)5.0 IP1 ER5 K

Home starter

Michael Soroka

SP · #34

8-3

W-L

3.07

ERA

1.09

WHIP

82.0

Last 3 starts

vsMIN-1.0 IP0 ER0 K

@CIN-7.0 IP1 ER7 K

vsWSHW(8-3)7.0 IP1 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob36% / 65%

LeanHome · 15pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCOL wins series 2-1

TypePreseason Series

Scouting report · pre-game

ARI vs COL.

ARI is 6-4 recently; COL is 4-6.

64.5%

model · ARI win prob

Recent form

ARI6–4+0.6
COL4–6+0.3

Situational

ARI2d rest
COL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; COL has 2.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8strikeouts · ±2.8
Kyle Freeland · 4.8 K · last-10 5 vs season 4.4.
Merrill KellyARI
4.0strikeouts · ±1.5
Merrill Kelly · 4 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 3.8.
Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9earned runs · ±1.9
Kyle Freeland · 3.9 ER · last-10 3.9 vs season 3.9.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
64.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Gabriel HughesCOL
4.7± 3.5low
Merrill KellyARI
4.0± 1.5high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.3± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.5± 2.5high
Mickey MoniakCOL
2.3± 2.4high
Willi CastroCOL
2.2± 1.8high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.9± 0.9high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.4± 2.5medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ARI

.746

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.315

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

5.48

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.17

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

7.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.8

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 10

COL

Rockies

52-85

vs64.5%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

66-72

COL 35.5%win prob64.5% ARI

ARI 1503 · COL 1421Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

The matchup, end-to-end.

ARI vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs COL.