Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 3, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

WSH

55-59

PHI

60-53

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

41,115 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

PHI no-vig %

58.3%

open 57.2% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.1pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

PHI

★ best

+225DraftKings

edge +32.1pp · implied 28.9%

Book	WSH	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-311	+225★	+32.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 3.3high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low
Bryce HarperPHI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

PHI

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.326

OBP

◀

.318

.305

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 3 · PHI 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Ortiz1B	.400	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. TenaDH	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. AbramsSS	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. RuizC	.265	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.248	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Vivas3B	.240	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
D. CrewsRF	.226	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.230	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	2	3	10

Player

.265

.400

.240

.284

.265

.248

.237

.240

.235

.226

.217

.230

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AlvarezSP	6.1	3	2	2	3	5	81
T. CosgroveRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	14
C. BeeterRP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	8
E. YeanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	8.0	5	6	6	5	6	116

Player

6.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.246	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
B. Harper1B	.255	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. De La CruzRF	.429	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.253	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. SosaLF	.211	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
D. HillCF	.275	3	1	1	4	1	0	0
G. StubbsC	.147	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.261	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		27	6	5	6	2	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	6.0	6	3	3	2	5	97
K. BackhusRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	10	153

Team

WSH

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.